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Old 12-26-2008, 01:38 AM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
2,035 posts, read 4,702,621 times
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.....Now while Forecasting even tomorrows weather is like betting on Mike tyson winning a fight with a Lion...sometime earlier last week i stumbled across
an article from an Accuweather forecaster who decided to go out on a limb and predict the potential beginnings of another El Nino sometime late next year..and have seen acouple other renegade forecasters looking at '09-10 in a similar way...so i thought id ask all of the weather buffs out there what their thoughts might be...We haven't seen a major El Nino cycle in roughly 10 years or so and many experts believe that these episodes occure about every 10 to 12 years appart..what do you think..think were due??...
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:53 AM
 
Location: So. Dak.
13,495 posts, read 35,129,224 times
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That's the warming event, correct? I seem to get the two confused all the time.

I'm interested in weather, but not a pro on it like some of the people here are. I do have to say that I'd welcome a nice warming trend and it can stay as long as it wants.

There is supposed to be a difference between their 7 day or 10 day forecasts vs. their long range forecasts. The long range are more of a science then the short range ones are. That's what they say anyway, but I'm still waiting for humans to actually be accurate predictors of nature.
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Old 12-26-2008, 11:59 AM
 
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Florida get ready!
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Old 12-26-2008, 12:53 PM
 
Location: in the southwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DailyJournalist View Post
Florida get ready!
lol
My motto is prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
If the El Nino prediction is anything like the last two years of hurricane predictions, my preparations will all be for nothing--but that's okay with me.

The computer models I've been looking at forecast neutral-to-slightly cool weather patterns.

Nino

Nino with models
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Old 12-26-2008, 02:20 PM
 
21 posts, read 81,098 times
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I do not necessarily think that an El Nino is on the horizon, but rather a La Nina. I have been examining the SST (Sea Surface Temps) maps over the past several months, I have noticed a distinct cooling trend, after the warming over the summer months.

Here is the latest SST anomaly animation (greens/blues=below normal water temps and yellows/oranges=above normal water temps:
Animated weekly SST anomaly maps

Note the general cooling of the waters across the equitorial zone in the Pacific, which is clearly foreshadowing the development of La Nina.
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Old 12-26-2008, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Subarctic maritime Melbourne
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^^ unfortunate, because that just brings cold and rain here
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Old 12-26-2008, 03:32 PM
 
Location: IN
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We are currently experiencing ENSO neutral conditions right now. It is very challenging to predict when a warm or cold event might begin to develop many months out in advance. Oh, I also don't care at all for Accuweather. Some of the meterologists there are great, but many of the general forecasts are all computer automated if I were to guess...
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Old 12-26-2008, 03:46 PM
 
Location: IN
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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
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Old 12-26-2008, 04:33 PM
 
21 posts, read 81,098 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
We are currently experiencing ENSO neutral conditions right now. It is very challenging to predict when a warm or cold event might begin to develop many months out in advance. Oh, I also don't care at all for Accuweather. Some of the meterologists there are great, but many of the general forecasts are all computer automated if I were to guess...
Agreed...AccuWeather can sometimes perform well, but most of the time, they fall short...
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Old 12-26-2008, 05:31 PM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
12,780 posts, read 12,578,257 times
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I found an article out on noaa about ENSO neutral and la nina, although it said weak la nina due to not meeting certain numbers. It was complicated, way over my head but did say through March 2009.
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