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As I look at the computer model runs today the prevailing pattern seems more and more El Nino like in my opinion. The jet stream seems much further north in latitude compared to its typical position and also zonal. The height anomalies over much of Canada are just staggering along with the warmth. The Pacific seems to be more active than usual for this time of year as well. At this point, it looks like the early Fall season will be quite warm/mild for the majority of the country with very few substantial cold fronts or longer lasting cooldowns.
I am sure the NAO and AO indicies will flip back into negative territory down the road, but it looks warm for quite some time based on everything I am seeing right now. Also, the first frost and freeze of the fall season will likely be delayed for many areas of the northern tier as well if the models continue to be consistent on the anomalous warmth upstream over much of southern Canada. (If that area doesn't get cold, no area in the northern tier of the US will see any significant trend for temperatures to be at or below average.
Well, I am sure some people will really like the warm fall. However, the overall weather pattern is extremely unusual for this time of year. We are getting a summer pattern in late September, and we had a spring pattern in July.
That sounds like wonderful news to me, too. AND I believe you may be quite right just from the way our last couple of weeks have been. You know it was nearly summer here before we actually warmed up, but the past few weeks our daytime highs and lows have been around 5 deg. above average~sometimes higher. It'd be wonderful to not get those cold Canadian blasts of air.
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