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11-21-2009, 04:48 PM
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45 posts, read 42,299 times
Reputation: 57
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How accurate is the weather forecast?
Hey guys,
I thought this would be an interesting idea for a thread.
Basically, what I'm (you can too, if you'd like) going to do is document the weather forecast from five days out. I'll take predictions from several different websites. Then, I'm going to find out how accurate the predictions were. Cool?
Like so:
As of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, November 21, 2009:
WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA
National Weather Service
Tonight/Sunday Morning50° - mostly cloudy Sunday, 11/2261° - rain showers Sunday Night/Monday Morning52° - rain showers Monday, 11/2362° - rain showers Monday Night/Tuesday Morning51° - mostly cloudy Tuesday, 11/2467° - mostly cloudy Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning52° - mostly cloudy Wednesday, 11/2568° - partly cloudy Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning50° - mostly cloudy Thanksgiving Day, 11/2666° - mostly cloudy The Weather Channel
Tonight/Sunday Morning49° - mostly cloudy Sunday, 11/2260° - rain showers Sunday Night/Monday Morning53° - rain showers Monday, 11/2364° - rain showers Monday Night/Tuesday Morning50° - rain showers Tuesday, 11/2465° - partly cloudy Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning51° - partly cloudy Wednesday, 11/2568° - rain showers Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning53° - rain showers Thanksgiving Day, 11/2667° - rain showers Accuweather
Tonight/Sunday Morning47° - mostly cloudy Sunday, 11/2260° - rain showers* * = Accuweather predicts .57 inches of rain on Sunday, 11/22.
Sunday Night/Monday Morning51° - rain showers Monday, 11/2364° - mostly cloudy Monday Night/Tuesday Morning53° - mostly cloudy Tuesday, 11/2470° - mostly cloudy Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning48° - partly cloudy Wednesday, 11/2571° - partly cloudy Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning50° - mostly cloudy Thanksgiving Day, 11/2663° - partly cloudy I will be back at the end of the week with the results of this experiment! 
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11-22-2009, 08:44 AM
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Location: planet octupulous is nearing earths atmosphere
9,484 posts, read 4,102,395 times
Reputation: 18595
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well down here in the us vi it's terrible, if they say the chance of rain is 80% it never rains. but if they say chance of rain is 20% it will rain horses, bufalos,polar bears.. so much for the forcast.  |
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11-22-2009, 01:02 PM
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Location: Bourbonnais, IL
1,340 posts, read 2,332,995 times
Reputation: 683
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Look forward to seeing the results. I'll post mine later this evening when the forecasts for this afternoon are gone.
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11-22-2009, 06:34 PM
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Location: Bourbonnais, IL
1,340 posts, read 2,332,995 times
Reputation: 683
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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:
NBC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 65, 20% showers, SE 10mph
Tomorrow Night: 42
Tuesday: 53, 20% showers, NW 15mph
Tuesday Night: 30
Wednesday: 56, partly cloudy, N 10mph
Wednesday Night: 29
Thanksgiving: 54, sunny, light winds
Thanksgiving Night: 30
Friday: 59, partly cloudy, SE 15mph
ABC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 64, mostly cloudy, S 15mph
Tomorrow Night: 40
Tuesday: 58, partly cloudy, NW 15mph
Tuesday Night: 34
Wednesday: 60, sunny, N 15mph
Wednesday Night: 30
Thanksgiving: 51, partly cloudy, N 10mph
Thanksgiving Night: 31
Friday: 57, partly cloudy, S 10mph
CBS Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 66, mostly cloudy, S 15-25mph
Tomorrow Night: 40
Tuesday: 56, partly cloudy, NW 15-30
Tuesday Night: 32
Wednesday: 55, sunny, NW 10-20mph
Wednesday Night: 32
Thanksgiving: 52, partly cloudy, N 10-20mph
Thanksgiving Night: 31
Friday: 56, partly cloudy, S 10-20mph
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11-22-2009, 06:45 PM
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Location: Mid-Atlantic
6,415 posts, read 6,768,432 times
Reputation: 4446
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Cool thread idea, the 1 day forecast isn't even accurate here, it's always like 3-10 degrees above the forecast. I'll post mine in a few.  |
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11-23-2009, 12:50 PM
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193 posts, read 93,222 times
Reputation: 176
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How accurate is the weather forecast?
It's usually very accurate coz they often say "another low pressure system moving in from the Atlantic" and we almost always get rain, wind and crappy temperatures. We don't really need meteorologists...
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11-26-2009, 07:23 PM
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45 posts, read 42,299 times
Reputation: 57
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WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA
Actual Weather
Saturday Night/Sunday Morning44° - clear Sunday, 11/2260° - rain showers Sunday Night/Monday Morning54° - rain showers Monday, 11/2370° - rain showers Monday Night/Tuesday Morning55° - mostly cloudy Tuesday, 11/2459° - mostly cloudy Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning52° - rain showers Wednesday, 11/2557° - rain showers Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning44° - clear Today, 11/2664° - partly cloudy Accuweather
Tonight/Sunday Morning47° - mostly cloudy -3 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Sunday, 11/2260° - rain showers* perfect
* = Accuweather predicts .57 inches of rain on Sunday, 11/22.
Actual: .3 inches of rain
Sunday Night/Monday Morning51° - rain showers -3 degrees
Monday, 11/2364° - mostly cloudy -6 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Monday Night/Tuesday Morning53° - mostly cloudy -2 degrees
Tuesday, 11/2470° - mostly cloudy -11 degrees
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning48° - partly cloudy -4 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Wednesday, 11/2571° - partly cloudy -14 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning50° - mostly cloudy -6 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Thanksgiving Day, 11/2663° - partly cloudy -1 degree
Average Difference From Actual Temp: -5 degrees
Conditions Accuracy: 50%
The Weather Channel
Tonight/Sunday Morning49° - mostly cloudy -5 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Sunday, 11/2260° - rain showers perfect
Sunday Night/Monday Morning53° - rain showers -1 degree
Monday, 11/2364° - rain showers -6 degrees
Monday Night/Tuesday Morning50° - rain showers -5 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Tuesday, 11/2465° - partly cloudy -6 degrees; close enough
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning51° - partly cloudy -1 degree; inaccurate prediction
Wednesday, 11/2568° - rain showers -11 degrees
Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning53° - rain showers -9 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Thanksgiving Day, 11/2667° - rain showers -3 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Average Difference From Actual Temp: -4.7 degrees
Conditions Accuracy: 50%
National Weather Service
Tonight/Sunday Morning50° - mostly cloudy -6 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Sunday, 11/2261° - rain showers -1 degree
Sunday Night/Monday Morning52° - rain showers -2 degrees
Monday, 11/2362° - rain showers -8 degrees
Monday Night/Tuesday Morning51° - mostly cloudy -4 degrees
Tuesday, 11/2467° - mostly cloudy -8 degrees
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning52° - mostly cloudy inaccurate prediction
Wednesday, 11/2568° - partly cloudy -11 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning50° - mostly cloudy -6 degrees; inaccurate prediction
Thanksgiving Day, 11/2666° - mostly cloudy -2 degrees; close enough
Average Difference From Actual Temp: -4.8 degrees
Conditions Accuracy: 60%
So, as you can see, there is no clear winner here. It was very close....
CONDITIONS ACCURACY:
1) NWS: 60%
2) Accuweather & Weather Channel: 50%
DEPARTURE FROM FORECASTED TEMPERATURE:
1) Weather Channel: 4.7 degrees
2) NWS: 4.8 degrees
3) Accuweather: 5 degrees
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11-27-2009, 10:22 PM
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Location: Bourbonnais, IL
1,340 posts, read 2,332,995 times
Reputation: 683
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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:
NBC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 65, 20% showers, SE 10mph
Tomorrow Night: 42
Tuesday: 53, 20% showers, NW 15mph
Tuesday Night: 30
Wednesday: 56, partly cloudy, N 10mph
Wednesday Night: 29
Thanksgiving: 54, sunny, light winds
Thanksgiving Night: 30
Friday: 59, partly cloudy, SE 15mph
ABC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 64, mostly cloudy, S 15mph
Tomorrow Night: 40
Tuesday: 58, partly cloudy, NW 15mph
Tuesday Night: 34
Wednesday: 60, sunny, N 15mph
Wednesday Night: 30
Thanksgiving: 51, partly cloudy, N 10mph
Thanksgiving Night: 31
Friday: 57, partly cloudy, S 10mph
CBS Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 66, mostly cloudy, S 15-25mph
Tomorrow Night: 40
Tuesday: 56, partly cloudy, NW 15-30
Tuesday Night: 32
Wednesday: 55, sunny, NW 10-20mph
Wednesday Night: 32
Thanksgiving: 52, partly cloudy, N 10-20mph
Thanksgiving Night: 31
Friday: 56, partly cloudy, S 10-20mph
Actual:
Monday: 63
Tuesday: 36/55
Wednesday: 30/55
Thursday: 28/57
Friday: 39/72
NBC:
Monday: +2
Tuesday: +6/-2
Wednesday: 0/+1
Thursday: +1/-3
Friday: -9/-13
Total Difference: 39
ABC:
Monday: +1
Tuesday: +4/+3
Wednesday: +4/+5
Thursday: +2/-6
Friday: -8/-15
Total Difference: 48
CBS:
Monday: +3
Tuesday: +4/+1
Wednesday: +2/0
Thursday: +2/-3
Friday: -8/-16
Total Difference: 39
Conclusion: CBS and NBC tied for "best" prediction and ABC came in last. Twice did a station precisely forecast the temperature. All stations forecasted for warmer than actual weather the beginning of the week and no one foresaw the rapid warm up with southwest winds that occurred today. I understand getting the temp a few degrees off, but how did no one see this coming just 5 days ago?
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11-27-2009, 10:43 PM
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Location: Bourbonnais, IL
1,340 posts, read 2,332,995 times
Reputation: 683
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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:
NBC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 68
Tomorrow Night: 47
Sunday: 48
Sunday Night: 32
Monday: 48
Monday Night: 30
Tuesday: 53
Tuesday Night: 33
Wednesday: 48
Wednesday Night: 28
Thursday: 42
Thursday Night: 25
Friday: 40
ABC Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 70
Tomorrow Night: 46
Sunday: 52
Sunday Night: 34
Monday: 47
Monday Night: 29
Tuesday: 55
Tuesday Night: 32
Wednesday: 47
Wednesday Night: 27
Thursday: 42
Thursday Night: 25
Friday: 46
CBS Affiliate:
Tomorrow: 69
Tomorrow Night: 44
Sunday: 50
Sunday Night: 33
Monday: 47
Monday Night: 30
Tuesday: 52
Tuesday Night: 32
Wednesday: 43
Wednesday Night: 29
Thursday: 48
Thursday Night: 27
Friday: 47
Weather Channel:
Tomorrow: 68
Tomorrow Night: 35
Sunday: 48
Sunday Night: 33
Monday: 55
Monday Night: 36
Tuesday: 54
Tuesday Night: 32
Wednesday: 48
Wednesday Night: 33
Thursday: 46
Thursday Night: 35
Friday: 44
Accuweather:
Tomorrow: 68
Tomorrow Night: 32
Sunday: 53
Sunday Night: 30
Monday: 54
Monday Night: 33
Tuesday: 55
Tuesday Night: 33
Wednesday: 53
Wednesday Night: 34
Thursday: 50
Thursday Night: 36
Friday: 50
Not sure why but the national resources forecast our weather to be way warmer over the next week. I'll be back in a week with the results. Part two. Love the idea for this thread. I think I'm going to make an excel sheet for each weeks forecasts and track the data over the year.
Last edited by Nameless; 11-27-2009 at 10:53 PM..
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11-28-2009, 04:01 PM
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Location: Southeast Jackson, Tn.
977 posts, read 756,611 times
Reputation: 239
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I like this thread`s idea.
No one really knows 100 % certain what the weather will do.
We have various Forecast Models that even most Meteorologists will not agree on sometimes.
I do have my Favorite web site where I get my most reliable forecasts from : But it isn`t perfect all the time either.
Today for Example : 11/ 27/ 09 : It predicted a Hi of 67 °
I ended up with a Hi of 70 °
I have heard that if a predicted temp is within 3 ° of actual occurence that prediction is right. You be the judge I guess.
I have my own Forecast Blog and I copy and paste it here on the Forecast thread.
My Main Forecast Blog goes back over a year now and if you want to you can compare forecasted temps to what actually occured by viewing my Climate Data Blog : It`s link is :
Yesterdays Bemis : Jackson, Tn`s : Historical Climate Data !
You may have to view each day one day at a time though.
My Forecast Blog Link is : http://southjacksonweather.wordpress.com
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