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Old 02-09-2010, 05:25 PM
 
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Has anyone heard if El Nino is suppose to die down in the spring?
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Old 02-09-2010, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Perth, Western Australia
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I hope it doesn't.
It's been making us drier than average and we're already surrounded by water; we don't need it.
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Old 02-09-2010, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
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I read somewhere (I think) through April 2010, but cannot find the article now. Maybe Granite will be on and answer for you.
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Old 02-10-2010, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Seattle area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by susancruzs View Post
I read somewhere (I think) through April 2010, but cannot find the article now. Maybe Granite will be on and answer for you.
when did it start?
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Old 02-10-2010, 01:55 PM
 
Location: IN
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Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

The transition to ENSO neutral conditions should begin by this Spring.
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Old 02-10-2010, 05:08 PM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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Possibly..They are going to be monitoring the march-may time line to see what ends up happening with this one..It is possible that we will return to either a neutral or slight la Nina..but, this far out, it is too early to say..And considering that this event appears to be the version which hangs out in the central pacific, instead of the classic fare which bumps up against the South and Central American coastlines, it will be interesting to see how everything plays out.. Storm surf(ing,..since i have accessed the site both ways,) regularly posts updates..say 3 or 4 a week..and is expecting the next inactive Phase of the MJO within the next two weeks..at present, we are at the peek of the current Active Phase..which should help spur a few more storms for CA. over the next couple weeks..

By the way, and because there has been talk about it, the reason this El Nino hasn't been keeping the US out of the cold is partially due to where it ended up consolidating..

Because the core of the warmer water generated stayed further out in the Pacific, the effects of the warmed Atmosphere haven't been able to keep some of the effects of a wacky NAO..and AO (North Atlantic and Arctic Ocillations) pattern at bay as much as if it had been stronger, and closer to the coastlines mentioned..

I am getting a feeling that down the line is a pattern similar to the early 90's where there was a persistent El Nino like anomaly present in the Pacific for several years..Leading up to the Big El Nino in 97-8.. While again, it is too early to tell if this might be the case, the fact that this event is the largest in 12 years may set the pace for another event in the not too distant future..simply because the Pacific may stay more biased toward El Nino conditions.. over a persistent La Nina like pattern which was seen after the 99-2000 event.. just have to wait and see..

Does this mean several years of silent Hurricane seasons?..nope, Andrew occurred during this period..as well as the East Pacific Basin's record Hurricane season..so anything is a given, just stay alert.. regardless, it will be nice to get out of the constant up and down temps. we have had this winter here in FL..lol
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Old 02-10-2010, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
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Interesting, thanks for the info, I'm thinking we're going to have a wet, cool spring for some reason.
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Old 02-11-2010, 11:55 PM
 
Location: East Central Phoenix
6,784 posts, read 9,908,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by si33 View Post
Possibly..They are going to be monitoring the march-may time line to see what ends up happening with this one..It is possible that we will return to either a neutral or slight la Nina..but, this far out, it is too early to say..And considering that this event appears to be the version which hangs out in the central pacific, instead of the classic fare which bumps up against the South and Central American coastlines, it will be interesting to see how everything plays out.. Storm surf(ing,..since i have accessed the site both ways,) regularly posts updates..say 3 or 4 a week..and is expecting the next inactive Phase of the MJO within the next two weeks..at present, we are at the peek of the current Active Phase..which should help spur a few more storms for CA. over the next couple weeks..

By the way, and because there has been talk about it, the reason this El Nino hasn't been keeping the US out of the cold is partially due to where it ended up consolidating..

Because the core of the warmer water generated stayed further out in the Pacific, the effects of the warmed Atmosphere haven't been able to keep some of the effects of a wacky NAO..and AO (North Atlantic and Arctic Ocillations) pattern at bay as much as if it had been stronger, and closer to the coastlines mentioned..

I am getting a feeling that down the line is a pattern similar to the early 90's where there was a persistent El Nino like anomaly present in the Pacific for several years..Leading up to the Big El Nino in 97-8.. While again, it is too early to tell if this might be the case, the fact that this event is the largest in 12 years may set the pace for another event in the not too distant future..simply because the Pacific may stay more biased toward El Nino conditions.. over a persistent La Nina like pattern which was seen after the 99-2000 event.. just have to wait and see..

Does this mean several years of silent Hurricane seasons?..nope, Andrew occurred during this period..as well as the East Pacific Basin's record Hurricane season..so anything is a given, just stay alert.. regardless, it will be nice to get out of the constant up and down temps. we have had this winter here in FL..lol
Then doesn't it make you wonder why the NWS even makes these long term seasonal predictions, when they often do not turn out to be correct? Right away when an El Niño is forming, the NWS throws out their long range winter/spring forecasts that California, the SW, and much of the Sunbelt will be wetter than normal. So far, this is just not the case.

Granted, January was wetter than normal here in the SW thanks to two massive storm systems. Other than that, it has been relatively quiet. Therefore, this has not been a typical El Niño at all. If it were a typical El Niño, two things would have happened by now in California & the SW: November & December would have been stormier, and January & February would have been consistently rainy (every other day or so for an extended period of time). This was the case during the last El Niño (2004-2005), but not this season.

Of course, we still have the rest of February, and March & April remaining to give it a full test ... but as of now I am rather disappointed. Then again, I predicted late last year that this El Niño was mostly hype, and that the predictions were off base. Here's the thread I started:
Does anybody believe the El Niño hype?
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Old 02-16-2010, 04:50 AM
 
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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All I know is that it has taken the Northern part of Texas into the coldest, wettest, and snowiest Winter I've ever seen, and I've lived here for 21 years. I hope it goes away soon.
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Old 02-16-2010, 09:54 PM
 
Location: New York
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Quote:
Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.
I'm wishing for above average temps, that New England part scares me because although I'm in the Mid-Atlantic N.E. isn't that far away, that's why I hope its Northern/Eastern N.E. lol.

I'm so ready for Spring, there's snow piles as high as 5 FEET, we have over a foot of snow on the ground after the weekend blizzard and todays storm, we'll be close to average (highs in the 40's) after tomorrow so hopefully the snow will melt fast.
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