Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
What's the average low for 4/30? I know the average high is around 70 and we already passed that.
National Weather Service says the average high for 4/30 is 66 and low is 49 for Central Park. Record high is 87 and record low is 35. Might get close to the record high tomorrow.
Today's average was 67 (assuming we've already reached the high temperature for the day); 10 degrees above average. That makes this month's average 57.9
NYC average for the month as of and including the 29th was 57.6, well above the "record" of 56.9.
Today is supposed to be above average (average for April 30 is 57), so the record is going to be shattered!
Before you cry "global warming", if you go on the NYC NWS website and see the top ten for each calendar month, you'll see that for March 1945 and 1946 (the warmest and 2nd warmest) have averages far above the third thru 10th place finishers.
Actually, looking at the NYC NWS Website, it does show fairly clear evidence of "global warming" or rather NYC (Central Park) warming. While just one record warm month isn't evidence of anything, several would. For example, if the climate had not change records started to be kept, you would expect an equal chance of a record cold month as a record hot month. If the climate had been warming, you would more likely expect a record hot month than a record cold month. Of course, you could still get record cold months, as weather is random but it's less likely to happen. Likewise, you could still get a record warm month when the climate was colder. If the warming was by a huge amount, we'd see no record cold months, but if it was small, we'd see some.
The last few decades do not have an equal amount of warm and cold record months. In January, 3 out of 12 of the warmest months have been in the last 20 years. Only 1 out of 14 of the coldest months have been in the last 20 years (and I can remember it as a nasty one). In March, 2 of the 10 warmest months have been since 2000. Of the 10 coldest months in March, the last one was in 1960. And the same pattern goes for almost every month. The one month it doesn't is July. Three of the 12 warmest Julys were in the 90s but none were last decade. But 2 of the 12 coldest Julys were in the last decade. Looking at seasons, makes the pattern easier to see, because the randomness should be a bit less. Winter seems to have shown the most warming. 5 of the 14 warmest winters have been since 1992 (what are the chances of that happening randomly? I'd like to try to calculate that), while only one of the 13 coldest winters has been since 1935. Interestingly, one of the warmest winters listed (96-97) had one of the city's biggest snowstorms.
Oddly, not only does NYC seem to be getting warmer, it seems to be getting wetter. 3 of the 10 wettest years since 1869 have been in the last decade, and all of the 10 driest years were 1970 or before.
From what I can tell…most stations in the Middle Atlantic/Tri-State area from Richmond, VA to Hartford, CT have recorded a top five warmest April last month.
In the northeast I was reading- the winter was milder then average; a short winter in the New England area- March was the 4th or 5th warmest on record- while some states in New England had the warmest April on record. Interesting data to say the least. May I see in the data more resembles July-thus far at least- the long range forecast sees above average temperatures as well.
Its not that the absolute highs are so 'strange' its the over all long period-of sustained above average temperatures which is troubling.
In the northeast I was reading- the winter was milder then average; a short winter in the New England area- March was the 4th or 5th warmest on record- while some states in New England had the warmest April on record. Interesting data to say the least. May I see in the data more resembles July-thus far at least- the long range forecast sees above average temperatures as well.
Its not that the absolute highs are so 'strange' its the over all long period-of sustained above average temperatures which is troubling.
To be honest… when there is a big anomaly like this April (in terms of warmth in the eastern USA)…I really think it is less a climate change issue (global warming…etc) and more the natural variation in climate. This April was the warmest in the Tri-State (NYC/NJ/CT) in more than 75 years region wide (and in NYC in 141 years). Many stations from Virginia to Connecticut had a very early start to the growing season. Yet, was anyone around taking temp measurements in 1725, 1525, 825 or 200,000 years ago? The data record is truly puny (150 years or so). I would bet if we had 10,000 years of data, and not 150 years of data…there were people thousands of past April's that were warmer than this one in NYC.
I think the real significant thing is the overall pattern that might be settling in this summer in the Eastern USA: I think the chances are good we are in for an old fashioned hot, haze, humid Bermuda High summer in the eastern USA.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Most climate change models show an acceleration in warming after 2010
Also the Co2 level in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa Observatory as measured by the NOAA- -March of 2010- stood at 391.06ppm- as we approach 400 Parts per million PPM- it may be totally not out of the realm of possibility that climate change just might be part of the issue.
Remember also- it has been the 'hope' that the rise in temperatures can be limited over the next 30- 40 years at no more then 2 degrees Celsius- (3.6 degrees) since there has been NO agreement passed by the nations involved- 3 degrees seems probable-
Also the last time the atmosphere measured this high with nearly 400 ppm co2 there was no Greenland ice cap- and the sea levels where 3-6 meters higher then today. Something to consider.
So, to attribute the warming to climate change/warming in the weather patterns may be premature- it may however be something NOT to dismiss totally-
In the past warming and cooling has almost been totally predicated on Co2 levels in the atmosphere. I think you have to look at the long term data since 1970- which does show that winters in most of New England states are 4 degrees (f) warmer- and that overall the average temperature is 0.7f higher- that data does show a significant trend. The rise in temperatures does coincide with the increase of Co2 since 1970- Co2 measured at about 320 ppm in 1970.
Last edited by Sleepership; 05-03-2010 at 10:10 AM..
The emissions cuts offered so far at the Copenhagen climate change summit would still lead to global temperatures rising by an average of 3C, according to a confidential UN analysis obtained by the Guardian.
With the talks entering the final 24 hours on a knife-edge, the emergence of the document seriously undermines the statements by governments that they are aiming to limit emissions to a level ensuring no more than a 2C temperature rise over the next century, and indicates that the last day of negotiations will be extremely challenging.
A rise of 3C would mean up to 170 million more people suffering severe coastal floods and 550 million more at risk of hunger, according to the Stern economic review of climate change for the UK government – as well as leaving up to 50% of species facing extinction. Even a rise of 2C would lead to a sharp decline in tropical crop yields, more flooding and droughts.
In the northeast I was reading- the winter was milder then average; a short winter in the New England area- March was the 4th or 5th warmest on record- while some states in New England had the warmest April on record. Interesting data to say the least. May I see in the data more resembles July-thus far at least- the long range forecast sees above average temperatures as well.
Its not that the absolute highs are so 'strange' its the over all long period-of sustained above average temperatures which is troubling.
Last year ...no sunspots. Cold winter, even colder summer. Highs in the 50's in July here in Maine. January 2010 sunspots return, winter snows turned to rain and mild temperatures brought spring to this area nearly one month early. I had snow on my patio last year in May and this year we had Easter dinner out there on April 4th in 70 degree weather. Observational data is useful in these situations. It's also helpful to make studies in areas that see dramatic seasonal changes. The timing and effect of change can be observed quite easily in a place that actually sees significant seasonal change. There is a massive oil spill in the gulf which will kill off millions of tons of plankton and algae. This reduction will surely affect the weather. There is also the Icelandic volcano to contend with as well. Millions of metric tons of particulate has been sent high into the atmosphere and has circled the globe by now. This will also impact the weather significantly. These factors must be entered into any climate change models. It may be a good year to shelf the data instead of using unknown variables and mathematic models to manipulate the data. In other words the data may be useless due to the over whelming short term impact of these phenomena. There is much change going on now and one would have to be a soothsayer to know exactly which influence is the cause of which reaction in the atmosphere. No guessing allowed!!
I like this, May is also off to a warm start. Even though its too early (we're just 3 days in) its probably already running about 20 degrees above average, however that won't last long as time progresses.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
