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Old 05-23-2011, 02:52 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,183,605 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Well since I always find climo maps interesting…lets’ examine that:






Let’s start with the coasts:

The 70 F (21 C) isotherm for the average daily high in January looks like it runs to about Daytona Beach (the hump that juts out into the Atlantic ocean is Cape Canaveral). So roughly it looks like all areas on the East Coast from Daytona Beach southward would have a average January high above 70 F….while all places north of Daytona Beach should have a high below 70 F. The 70 F LINE looks to run through metro Daytona Beach.

Checking their official NWS at Daytona Beach site (Daytona Beach/Max Temp/1970 -2000): National Weather Service Climate

The 30 year average January high in Daytona Beach is 69 F. So the +/- line appears to be to within about - 1 F.

On the West Coast, the 70 F line seems to be around Crystal River – Inverness, FL (about 75 miles north of Tampa Bay).

Checking their official NWS site at site for Inverness, FL( Inverness, FL /Max Temp/1970 -2000 National Weather Service - NWS Tampa Bay Area

The 30 year average January high in Inverness, FL is 69. 8 F. So the +/- line appears to be less than - 0.2 F off.



Now let’s check the interior of Florida:

The 70 F isothermal line appears to swing northeast to Ocala before it swings south again toward the Daytona Beach area:

Checking their official NWS site at site for Ocala, FL ( Ocala, FL /Max Temp/1970 -2000) National Weather Service Climate

The 30 year average January high in Ocala, FL is 70. 5 F. So the +/- line appears to be less than + 0.5 F off.


So if you use the 70 F line, that appears to run in a Daytona Beach…Ocala….Inverness/Crystal River line…there seems to be little or no error at all. All three of these stations report a normal January high temp between 69 and 70. 5 F.

Since most maps have a 1 to 3 F margin of error (+/-)...I say that's a A performance from NOAA.
It swings too far to the north. There are places 50 miles south and west of Daytona Beach that have average highs below 70 F in January. Eustis is about 50 miles south and west of Daytona Beach. Eustis is more than 50 miles south and east of Ocala. Weirsdale is 20 miles south of Ocala. While 20 miles on a map is barely noticeable, it still matters when discussing the specifics of a climate. 50 miles definitely makes a difference. Here's a few examples:

Eustis: 68 F
Weirsdale: 68 F
Mount Dora: 68 F

Assuming the line is about over Ocala, I'll grant you that there are places about on the line with average highs at 70 F, but if it were to be more accurate, there should probably be a dip in the line in inland Central Florida.
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Old 05-23-2011, 02:54 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,183,605 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Did you get these maps from the NOAA "Climate Atlas of the US"? You do know that data is old, and is based on the 1961 to 1990 averages. NOAA hasn't produced a climate atlas using 1981 to 2010 data, and hasn't even gotten around to producing an atlas using 1971 to 2000. Those maps are over 20 years old if you got them from the climate atlas. I'll bet those lines have all shifted southwards with the most recent data. They say there used to be orange groves all over northern FL even getting up to Jacksonville. Not now!
It will be interesting to see the 1981-2010 data. There were a couple very cool Januarys (and Decembers). Maybe not enough to affect the long term average (not sure what statistical methods NOAA uses), but who knows.
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Old 05-23-2011, 06:17 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,338,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dxiweodwo View Post
Ummm, it definitely goes a lot farther north than Ocala. It goes to about Gainesville/Lake City, both have average highs of about 64-66F in January.

The map also says that Nashville has an average high of 50F in January, which is incorrect. The average high is more like 44-45F.

It ALSO has STL, Cincy, and Pitt at over 40F, when all of these cities have average highs between 35-38F in January.

This map is way off, just admit it.

Round and round we go. Way off, the map has a margin of error of 1 to 3 F or so. The map shows the 70 F isotherm in inland north –central Florida right around Ocala (follow Cape Canaveral point westward and you are just below the 70 F isotherm) .

Once again, you try to take a locations right ON THE LINE. The map shows that Nashville is just south of the 50 F January isotherm (49 F). Checking the NWS Nashville site the average January high is 46.5 . The map is off -2. 5 F

The map shows 40 F isotherm running through metro St. Louis. Checking the NWS site for St. Louis shows the average January high in St. Louis is 37. 9 F. The map is off - 2.1 F.


Etc, ...etc...etc.

The maps are not way off. Geography might be confusing you. My offer still stands. When you find something better than NOAA maps and tabular data, let us know.
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Old 05-23-2011, 06:36 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,338,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
It swings too far to the north. There are places 50 miles south and west of Daytona Beach that have average highs below 70 F in January. Eustis is about 50 miles south and west of Daytona Beach. Eustis is more than 50 miles south and east of Ocala. Weirsdale is 20 miles south of Ocala. While 20 miles on a map is barely noticeable, it still matters when discussing the specifics of a climate. 50 miles definitely makes a difference. Here's a few examples:

Eustis: 68 F
Weirsdale: 68 F
Mount Dora: 68 F

Assuming the line is about over Ocala, I'll grant you that there are places about on the line with average highs at 70 F, but if it were to be more accurate, there should probably be a dip in the line in inland Central Florida.
Again, trying to take locations RIGHT ON THE LINE...can have some margin of error (1- 3 F or so). Also, it can be difficult to extrapolate temp data if NWS has no reporting station in a particularly city/town. This is a common issue.

For example, the closest NWS station I could find to Mount Doria, FL is Deland, FL (about 20 miles northeast). The NWS site for Deland, FL shows a normal January high of 69.9 F...so the 70 F line seems a fair estimate:

DELAND, FL (High temp/1970-2000) National Weather Service Climate


As far as stations south of Ocala...that have normal January highs below 70 F…I checked (just to test the maps) every single NWS reporting station south of Ocala (inland), Daytona (East Coast), and Crystal River (West Coast). I couldn’t find a single NWS reporting station with a high under 70 F. This is not to say there might not be locations with special geographic conditions that might make their temp a few degrees below 70 near the line...I just couldn't find one.

If you match NOAA's tabular data for their stations (all 6000 of them) and use the isothermal lines on the map...you'll normally come up with a 1 to 3 F +/- margin of error. I think NOAA/NWS maps and data is still pretty soild.

Last edited by wavehunter007; 05-23-2011 at 06:46 PM..
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Old 05-23-2011, 06:42 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,338,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
It will be interesting to see the 1981-2010 data. There were a couple very cool Januarys (and Decembers). Maybe not enough to affect the long term average (not sure what statistical methods NOAA uses), but who knows.
From what I can see (and you can check any location in the USA that has an NWS station log)…despite the record cold December 2009, and January 2011 in some areas of the USA…most locations that have an NWS reporting station had many of their warmest years/months/summers/winters/springs/falls…etc between 1980 and 2010.

In your part of the USA (the Middle Atlantic), many stations had their all time warmest summers since 1895 and some of their warmest winters since the 1920's - between 2000 and 2010. Based on what I’ve seen, there is a 99% chance the new NOAA tabular data/maps will be warmer than the 1970- 2000 data set. The 1990’s were about the mildest decade since 1900 in many areas of the USA.
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Old 05-23-2011, 07:14 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,183,605 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
From what I can see (and you can check any location in the USA that has an NWS station log)…despite the record cold December 2009, and January 2011 in some areas of the USA…most locations that have an NWS reporting station had many of their warmest years/months/summers/winters/springs/falls…etc between 1980 and 2010.

In your part of the USA (the Middle Atlantic), many stations had their all time warmest summers since 1895 and some of their warmest winters since the 1920's - between 2000 and 2010. Based on what I’ve seen, there is a 99% chance the new NOAA tabular data/maps will be warmer than the 1970- 2000 data set. The 1990’s were about the mildest decade since 1900 in many areas of the USA.
I was referring specifically to the record cold months in Florida.

As for the new averages, many places will certainly see an increase, but some will likely see a decrease. They don't only calculate the average. There's other statistical methods used and other factors to consider.
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Old 05-23-2011, 07:46 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,338,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
I was referring specifically to the record cold months in Florida.

As for the new averages, many places will certainly see an increase, but some will likely see a decrease. They don't only calculate the average. There's other statistical methods used and other factors to consider.
From what I have read, only January 2010 and December 2010 was a big record breaker in Florida since 1980. I would think a two months would have little overall effect averaged out over 30 years.
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Old 05-23-2011, 09:05 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,887,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
From what I have read, only January 2010 and December 2010 was a big record breaker in Florida since 1980. I would think a two months would have little overall effect averaged out over 30 years.
To someone who spends a lot of time in FL(Wavehunter), I ask this question. Is it true that the northern limit of citrus growing regions in FL is going further and further south each decade? I understand that the 90's were warm. However, I have also heard that the extreme cold is getting just that, more and more extreme each decade. Hence citrus no longer growing in northern FL, and sugarcane also not even being cultivated anymore as cold keeps wiping it out. Miami is a true sub-tropical climate, but certainly not "tropical" like Rio. I think the std deviation numbers coming out with the 1980 to 2010 data will be even more "unstable". If there is one thing I hate about our US climate it is the crazy temp swings we get in winter, that almost no where else on earth does except China.
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Old 05-23-2011, 09:17 PM
 
Location: In transition
10,635 posts, read 16,649,481 times
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Even China can't match the High standard deviation in winter that the US gets. Shanghai while on average has a very cold winter for its latitude (40F average in January for somewhere 31N). Its record low is only 10F which is actually higher than some places at 31N in the US.
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Old 05-23-2011, 09:52 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,338,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
To someone who spends a lot of time in FL(Wavehunter), I ask this question. Is it true that the northern limit of citrus growing regions in FL is going further and further south each decade? I understand that the 90's were warm. However, I have also heard that the extreme cold is getting just that, more and more extreme each decade. Hence citrus no longer growing in northern FL, and sugarcane also not even being cultivated anymore as cold keeps wiping it out. Miami is a true sub-tropical climate, but certainly not "tropical" like Rio. I think the std deviation numbers coming out with the 1980 to 2010 data will be even more "unstable". If there is one thing I hate about our US climate it is the crazy temp swings we get in winter, that almost no where else on earth does except China.


I have no idea. The only thing I can tell you is what I have read on historical bases (this is actually interesting):

The citrus line for oranges (mangos, limes, is more of a deep south Florida thing) has been all over the place since 1800:

In the early 1800’s oranges were grown on the banks of the St. Johns River (about 50 miles south of Jacksonville. Then after several hard freezes, the orange groves were pushed southward to just north of Lake Okeechobee. Then after mild winters in the later 1870’s to 1898 the oranges pushed back all the way to St. Augustine. Henry Flagger (the wealthy inventor/railroad tycoon) invited his rich friend Henry Standard (Standard Oil Company) to winter with him at a new resort he was developing around St. Augustine in the late 1880’s. Then the coldest winter on record hit (winter 1899) and the oranges were killed from St. Augustine all the way south to inland Martin County (Ft. Pierce). Since 1900 - 1920, the orange groves have concentrated from about 29 latitude southward on the punsuala. The large area between Lake O and Orlando eastward to the area east of Melbourne is home of the orange industry in Florida today. Long term inland (the coast is of course milder), I would say the mean line of around 29 latitude has not change much since 1900. Of course with modern equipment and new growth mediums, they can harvest 10 times the oranges on half as much land as they did in 1911 (a 100 years ago). Florida is the number 2 producer of oranges in the world. Brazil in number 1.



As far as 1980 - 2010 data, as I said above...much of the USA had the warmest decade in the 1990's...and the 2000 were not cool (lol). If anything, freezes in Florida and other subtropical climates world wide are less common than they were in the 1800's it seems. They had bad freezes in many areas of the world in the 1800's. The last 100 years, and really the last 30 years have been pretty mild.
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