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Old 10-09-2007, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Palm Beach, FL & Napa, CA
2,093 posts, read 5,570,551 times
Reputation: 1005

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40 month supply of homes and no-one to buy them.

Area residential market 'brutal,' veteran broker says (broken link)
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Old 10-09-2007, 07:50 PM
 
199 posts, read 217,610 times
Reputation: 64
That broker goes on and on about how everything is historically bad....then he says prices will come down "a bit". I have a feeling that is going to be one huge "bit".
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Old 10-09-2007, 08:49 PM
 
3,842 posts, read 10,475,629 times
Reputation: 3206
I'm not familiar with that area, but that's about the same scenario in SWFL (Lee/Charlotte/Collier) which is around 50,000 homes.

That's over THREE years of inventory in Palm Beach County & a little over FOUR years in SW FL!

Even if the prices come down, combine those two numbers (35,000 + 50,000)...that's 85,000 homes for sale
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Old 10-10-2007, 04:30 AM
 
1,135 posts, read 3,969,483 times
Reputation: 673
This is good news for us cuz we want to buy here.
But, in this area (WPB) people should have realized
reality would set-in at some point. Stuff here is grossly
overpriced ! When sellers realize the boom days of realty
are gone for a while, stuff will start to move.
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Old 10-10-2007, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 26,645,979 times
Reputation: 5038
Sellers will be in denial until they are completely unable to hold onto those properties anymore. This standoff could go on for many more years.
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Old 10-10-2007, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Tampa
3,982 posts, read 10,425,883 times
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if you follow the traditional rule, where homes are about 2-3 times the family income, it could be a huge upset

even if you factor in the S Fl factor and make it 4 times, the median family income is right around 55k a yr

Palm Beach County, Florida - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

times 4 = 220k

so, homes would have to drop over 100k b4 they become reasonable again for the avg family.

but, will it happen?
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Old 10-10-2007, 11:07 AM
 
3,842 posts, read 10,475,629 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
if you follow the traditional rule, where homes are about 2-3 times the family income, it could be a huge upset

even if you factor in the S Fl factor and make it 4 times, the median family income is right around 55k a yr

Palm Beach County, Florida - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

times 4 = 220k

so, homes would have to drop over 100k b4 they become reasonable again for the avg family.

but, will it happen?
Also, what is the TRUE value of a home in FL? Prices are SO overinflated & things have been so jacked up with property taxes & HOI...what should homes really go for in FL?

An average family making less than $75k/yr should be looking at homes in the $140-$160 range (that makes P & I w/ a 5% downpayment a little less than $1,000/month). But taxes & HOI is so high in areas of FL that even then they are stretching to make mortgage payments.

It's a tough state to buy a home in. It's a tough state to sell a home in.
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Old 10-10-2007, 11:09 AM
 
3,842 posts, read 10,475,629 times
Reputation: 3206
Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
Sellers will be in denial until they are completely unable to hold onto those properties anymore. This standoff could go on for many more years.
How many of these people should have never bought in the first place? How many bought b/c they wanted the big sq ft & all the bells & whistles to go with it? It's not fair to say every seller should be told "shame shame" but at the same time, there are so many sellers out there who bought & are selling so fast after buying that even in a healthy market they'd have problems.
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Old 10-10-2007, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Satellite Beach, FL
149 posts, read 698,956 times
Reputation: 43
The days of real estate 'irrational exuberance' have long gone and now hopefully we will settle into a long period of rational expectations. I agree that prices will come down further, but I think in the long run (>10yrs from now) real estate as an investment will still do well (7-8% annual appreciation).

Prodromos Borboroglu
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Old 10-10-2007, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 26,645,979 times
Reputation: 5038
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwick release View Post
The days of real estate 'irrational exuberance' have long gone and now hopefully we will settle into a long period of rational expectations. I agree that prices will come down further, but I think in the long run (>10yrs from now) real estate as an investment will still do well (7-8% annual appreciation).

Prodromos Borboroglu
So that means that salaries are going to go up at 7-8% a year, WOW~!
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