W. Palm Beach region: Bottoms out when? (Wellington, Lake Worth: real estate market, HOA fees)

[TootsieWootsie]

When are they predicting the W. Palm Beach region will bottom out on the housing market? I read it was very overvalued, and that it is sloooowly going down. Am hoping someone has seen it in the paper or tv news as to when this bottom is projected to occur?

[THX 1138]

Originally Posted by TootsieWootsie

When are they predicting the W. Palm Beach region will bottom out on the housing market? I read it was very overvalued, and that it is sloooowly going down. Am hoping someone has seen it in the paper or tv news as to when this bottom is projected to occur?

I don't see it happening anytime soon. The prices are and have been astronomically over-inflated here since 2003. The boom is over, now I see large developments sitting idle, signs say "Homes from the $600's to $1 Millions" with no activity.

Average salary in Palm Beach County is $40K, so for those who don't already own a house and/or bought back when it was affordable pre-2002 era, are pretty much left with little choices. The majority of the big ticket buyers were baby boomers with deep pockets and/or people with $ moving here, not current residents who work and live here on average salaries.

After the hurricanes of 2004-05 and the insurance crunch the bubble deflated and then popped.

Now there are thousands of people who paid way too much for their homes here, many went over their heads using ARMs and etc.

[PBCboy]

It's not a particularly good time to move in this area anyhoo.

[vconnie]

Originally Posted by PBCboy

It's not a particularly good time to move in this area anyhoo.

PCBboy,

I found that you have been helpful to me in the past. I had asked you questions regarding schools and certain area in WPB county. I would now like if you don't mind your opinion again. My question is this: what do (and any others who care to answer) feel is a reasonable offer to make on a house in Winston Trails that is on a lake with a pool, 6bdrms, 3 baths, 2and half car garage. The house is in good condition and has accordian shutters it is listed for 450,000.00. Next, a home in Isola Bella Estates a newer gated community same deal as Winston Trails but smaller and no golf course. The house is just under 4000sq. ft. of living space with 5bdrms and 3baths and a three car garage. Pool and lake also, accordian shutters too. This home is now down to 549,000. The one in Winston Trails is a little over 3,000sq. ft. of living space. I look forward to your reply. Thank you in advance to all who respond.

[THX 1138]

Originally Posted by vconnie

PCBboy,

I found that you have been helpful to me in the past. I had asked you questions regarding schools and certain area in WPB county. I would now like if you don't mind your opinion again. My question is this: what do (and any others who care to answer) feel is a reasonable offer to make on a house in Winston Trails that is on a lake with a pool, 6bdrms, 3 baths, 2and half car garage. The house is in good condition and has accordian shutters it is listed for 450,000.00. Next, a home in Isola Bella Estates a newer gated community same deal as Winston Trails but smaller and no golf course. The house is just under 4000sq. ft. of living space with 5bdrms and 3baths and a three car garage. Pool and lake also, accordian shutters too. This home is now down to 549,000. The one in Winston Trails is a little over 3,000sq. ft. of living space. I look forward to your reply. Thank you in advance to all who respond.

If you can afford a house in that price range, figure in the high taxes, HOA fees and associated high insurance rates as well.

A friend of mine has a house in Delray, paid $800K for it (paid way too much for it but it was boom time), pay's $13K a year just for property taxes. Total yearly expense with insurance and HOA is well over $20K a year, now figure in mortage and etc.

[vconnie]

Originally Posted by THX 1138

If you can afford a house in that price range, figure in the high taxes, HOA fees and associated high insurance rates as well.

A friend of mine has a house in Delray, paid $800K for it (paid way too much for it but it was boom time), pay's $13K a year just for property taxes. Total yearly expense with insurance and HOA is well over $20K a year, now figure in mortage and etc.

THX,
Thanks for the response, we have figured taxes, ins and the HOA fees. Just wanted to know what those living in Fl/WPB area(for a while)thought a reasonable offer would be in these areas. I am hearing stories of going in with an opening offer of 30% less the asking price. Many have told me (and have read here)including a realtor in WPB that the bottom has no where hit yet. That said, if we can purchase before year end what is a reasonable starting offer or realistic sold price on properties like I have mentioned. Thanks again!

[Retiredcoach]

If you have calculated all of your perceived costs realistically, you have thoroughly researched the area, the house is well within your means, and you are planning to remain in the home for minimally five years, then why not take a chance? Find out some of the circumstances of why the owner is selling, and bid accordingly. If it is a must sell situation, realize that the seller is more apt to accept a lower offer than the one "locked into yesterday's values". You will never know how much/little the seller will accept unless you try.

Buying a $400,000 + home in Florida is a risk (declining values, limited market of suitable buyers, hurricanes in recent memory, schools...), with some economists predicting a 5 year housing bust countrywide and Florida especially hard-hit. If I am in your circumstance, bid low... Time and a multitude of properties are on your side.

[vconnie]

Originally Posted by Retiredcoach

If you have calculated all of your perceived costs realistically, you have thoroughly researched the area, the house is well within your means, and you are planning to remain in the home for minimally five years, then why not take a chance? Find out some of the circumstances of why the owner is selling, and bid accordingly. If it is a must sell situation, realize that the seller is more apt to accept a lower offer than the one "locked into yesterday's values". You will never know how much/little the seller will accept unless you try.

Buying a $400,000 + home in Florida is a risk (declining values, limited market of suitable buyers, hurricanes in recent memory, schools...), with some economists predicting a 5 year housing bust countrywide and Florida especially hard-hit. If I am in your circumstance, bid low... Time and a multitude of properties are on your side.

Thank you for the info. We have a wonderful realtor down in Lake Worth, he tells us the same thing you did "time is on your side". We have been at this now since the end of '03, we had a large business and property to sell. This said we have seen the roller coaster ride the real estate market has taken in the areas I mentioned. We love the area, unincorporated area of Lake Worth. I know it seems risky looking in the 400k and up asking range, but I have to think some of these homes are worth that, with so many more in the area and surrounding Wellington holding their value and more. We do have time, this is good but also puts doubt in my husbands mind about future business in the area. We wonder about the economy there if we move in the near future before the market stabilizes there. I am in a hurry to leave LI, NY, my husband has more patience. Thank you for the advice and I welcome any other on the topic. We are a fairly young family with two daughters one in middle school and the other in high school(our oldest dorms)I know from others on the board that the middle and high schools in Winston Trails and Isola Bella Estates are fairly good schools. Yes, I have been told that Wellington HS is good also. Thanks again!!!

[MrTudo]

Look at m y post in the thread titled:
Palm Beach County area residential market 'brutal,' veteran broker says


Those are real numbers. Now you tell me when.

[vconnie]

Originally Posted by MrTudo

Look at m y post in the thread titled:
Palm Beach County area residential market 'brutal,' veteran broker says


Those are real numbers. Now you tell me when.

Mr. Tudo,

Hello, I checked out your post. You took considerably less on the home to sell it. Yes, I agree a brutal market!! Maybe it is time to re-think the whole south florida dream I have. I guess my husband is correct in thinking and over thinking this whole move!! Keep the advice and knowledge coming it is greatly appreciated.