Palm Beach County Violent Crime Index, 1995-2007 (Wellington, Lake Worth: apartment complex, crime rates)

[aterrell9]

Hello to all,

For those not familiar, there was a debate going on in another post about whether Palm Beach County has been getting worse. Based on my experience as a paramedic (NOT on statistics), I speculated that it has been getting worse, especially over the past 2 years. I meant this as 2008 and 2007, even though I know the year is not over yet. Again, this was a conjecture on my part based on my experiences. Out of curiosity, I decided to do an FDLE search on the violent crime rates index in Palm Beach County and Broward County (which had approx 400,000 more citizens than PBC last year). PBC has had its ups and down, seeing the highest crime index in 1998 and its highest murder rate in 2007. As I thought, the violent crimes index has jumped from the mid 8000s in 1999-2005 to 9301 in 2006 and 9350 in 2007. This is OVERALL with the numbers of some violent crimes going up and others down. Also, this is NOT the highest it has ever been. It was over 10,000 in 1998. Broward County has a higher population and higher number. I'll leave it to you statisticians out there to figure out the statistical significance between the two. I felt compelled to look this up after 1 fatal shooting in Lantana last night (guy got shot in the drive through at Taco Bell, unsure if it was gang related), 1 fatal stabbing in West Palm this week, a multiple stabbing in Martin County (5 people) and a recent fatal self-defense shooting in Lake Worth. If you would like to look at the numbers, go to

2007 Crime in Florida Data

Hope this helps.

[aterrell9]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention. There was a nonfatal shooting in Wellington proper the other night (guy was shot in the abdomen) and, in breaking news, my wife just told me that the SWAT team shut down our apartment complex last night and apprehended somebody. Stay tuned. Further bullentins as events warrant.

[compelled to reply]

What happens when we move to North Carolina and find out the same things happen there? Crimes such as armed robbery and (sometimes) burglary are a whole different subject, but domestic shootings and rival gang members shooting rival gang members don't really affect your safety if you maintain a healthy social life. Even worse, these incidents happen everywhere, in large volume too.

[aterrell9]

I have no idea what happens when you move to North Carolina and find that out. Please let me know. Armed robbery, aggravated assault and burglary are included in that report-- they fall under violent crimes. therefore, same subject. Domestic and gang shootings absolutely affect even those with healthy social lives---they are referred to as innocent bystanders. These incidents do happen everywhere. Probably less in Sylacauga, Alabama than New York City, New York though. Something to do with population and demographics.

[PBCboy]

Well, Palm Beach County is actually the worse place in terms of gangs in Florida and South Florida has one of the largest active gang communities outside of New York in the U.S.

[Tungsten_Udder]

Do you have a link to the studies examining the reporting and classification methods over time?

[Tungsten_Udder]

Originally Posted by aterrell9

I have no idea what happens when you move to North Carolina and find that out. Please let me know. Armed robbery, aggravated assault and burglary are included in that report-- they fall under violent crimes. therefore, same subject. Domestic and gang shootings absolutely affect even those with healthy social lives---they are referred to as innocent bystanders.

How about the analyses of perp/victim relationships (analyses that go deeper than what the perp, victim, witnesses and family members and acquaintances might have told the police)?

[aterrell9]

How do you analyze what somebody didn't tell somebody else?

[Tungsten_Udder]

Originally Posted by aterrell9

How do you analyze what somebody didn't tell somebody else?

How do we know this information then?

Maybe I'm pointing out one of the problems with relying on statistics as if they transparently tell us what's going on and what we should expect?

There actually are ways to investigate relationships that aren't reported to the police, by the way (the methods would basically amount to investigative journalism), but I agree with you that it's almost never done, and there certainly aren't any large-scale studies on this. Yet we just ignore this and pretend that the statistics tell us something about it anyway.

[aterrell9]

Statistics can tell us exactly what we want them to say or don't want them to say. It's a blessing and a curse. Or, as was said to me once, "statistics never lie and liars use statistics."