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Old 11-07-2016, 05:19 PM
 
778 posts, read 789,166 times
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Originally Posted by CTMountaineer View Post
Wow. Where are you getting your crystal ball? I wish I had one.

WVU is in growth mode. It won't be catching any colds. There is great, sustaining strength in the alumni and supporter base of the school. Recently, $1 billion has been raised totally from private sources to support activities there.

The University will peak locally at 32,000 students by design, that's true, but that will have little effect on the health care components, which are seemingly growing exponentially, and look to continue to grow due to the increased number of old foggies in our region and our state. Mylan employs 2/3 as many folks as The U. and they are in expansion mode, and the area is gaining steam as a destination city in other matters too. We have a number of other good sized organizations with a presence here, and while the fact that the school is here probably played a role in them locating here, the fact remains that they are here, and their growth is not related to the number of students at the school, especially undergraduate students.

Most serious research is done by PhD types, and there are many of those located here who have zero connection to the school, such as our next door neighbor, who is a scientist for Protea (she graduated from Penn State and has a PhD from Vanderbilt). A lot of these organizations have no connection to undergraduate or even masters level students at WVU. There is NIOSH, NETL, and research at NASA in nearby Fairmont that attracts people here, as well as that at FBI in Clarksburg with which WVU has a major presence in research endeavors. The number of researchers is not predicated by the number of undergrad students... not even related to it, really.

Also, don't forget the significant US Dept. or Ag presence here as well as the 2 federal prison complexes in our area which employ thousands. They have no connection to the school either. Researchers have predicted a healthy growth rate for our area for at least the next 20 years, and I sure don't see anything that would indicate that isn't accurate. We expect more businesses to locate here, in part due to the school, and also in part due to other factors.

By the way, current Census estimates have Mon County's population at 103,000, not 96,000. 96 was the official census count for 2000. If you've spent any time here, you know a lot more people have moved here in the past 6 years. Estimates are that Morgantown will grow between 1 and 2% per year for at least the next 20 years. If we split the difference and say 1.5%, that would add 30% to our current population in that period of time. You'd be looking at something over 130,000 in 20 years, in an area with about 1/3 the geographic footprint of Kanawha, and an area that already has 380,000 people living within 33 miles of Morgantown's city center. There is a reason our area is attracting significant private investment, and it doesn't all have to do with WVU. It sure doesn't have anything to do with our state government either, which seems intent on trying, in vein, to throw up roadblocks.
I understand your enthusiasm but I think it is nothing more than that. Morgantown does not exist in some alternate dimension from the rest of the state. The same negatives and positives affect all communities equally in the state in the general sense. Morgantown is not going to escape that effect.


Just because you want something to happen does not make it so and seeing only those things that support your viewpoint is not the best way to forecast a trend. West Virginia is stagnant and that includes every place in the state. We call out some places for expansion and growth but in any other state these would be treading water at best. In some places like Texas, the growth around WVU would look like ho hum...yawn. It is all relative and in that sense, Morgantown is not going to get much bigger. There is no track record, no indicator to counter that argument.


The eastern panhandle is the growth region of the state and that has nothing to do with West Virginia. It is all about proximity to Washington D.C. Pittsburgh is not a growing city and therefore its metro is not growing and that metro includes Morgantown.


Again, I understand your zeal for this topic as it relates to Morgantown, but trust me, Morgantown isn't all that. It is a nice place, but it is still a small town wedged between some hills in West Virginia with no place to really expand and little reason to be bigger than it already is. Sorry.
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Old 11-07-2016, 08:45 PM
 
10,147 posts, read 15,009,518 times
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Well... this isn't Texas so that isn't relevant here. This is West Virginia. We'll just have to disagree, but know that you aren't really disagreeing just with me but with professional prognosticators. While it is true that some of the state tends to retard growth in all of it, what happens here is not directly connected with what happens in southern West Virginia economically.

There are two different economic drivers for growth in North Central WV and the Eastern Panhandle, but both are very real and active. The EP growth is driven by DC/Baltimore urban sprawl, and I agree with you that this will not stop and will only increase. Growth in NCWV is driven by growth in all of the economic engines except for coal, which is stagnant but not declining at a rapid pace here as it is in many other parts of the state. It is stabilizing at a rate somewhat lower than previous years, but essentially static compared with the past. Virtually every economic engine in our area is in growth mode, and experts believe that will continue for many years to come. All parts of West Virginia will lag to a degree the national trends, but NCWV, and especially Mon County, is expected to continue in growth mode for the foreseeable future.

While it is true that I wish for that to continue, there are plenty of indicators that it will do just that. There is little relationship between the economic woes of the southern tier and our local economy here... never has been.

However, if you have evidence that our area is going to somehow go into decline or even stagnant mode, I would be interested is seeing it. Your wishing for that to happen does not mean it will either.

Last edited by CTMountaineer; 11-07-2016 at 09:04 PM..
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:17 PM
 
10,147 posts, read 15,009,518 times
Reputation: 1782
There is another thing to consider too. I welcome new restaurants and retail development here because of the overall growth in population of the area, but if our area were stagnant or declining in population I am not at all certain it would be such a good thing because that sort of growth in such circumstances would simply mean taking business from existing enterprises. In my opinion, there is good growth, and destructive growth. You have to have growth in the fundamental economic engines and population of an area before retail growth is a good thing in general. Without that, every positive for one business is a negative for another.
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