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Old 08-10-2018, 10:16 AM
 
77 posts, read 32,773 times
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Stats can often be spun any way your want. Sotheby’s doesn’t want to scare away sellers from selling and buyers from buying.

Houlihan Lawrence sent out their Q2 Market Report and said: “Buyers are beginning to feel the strains of the loss of purchasing power due to the combination of higher home prices, higher interest rates, stagnant wage growth, increasing costs of goods and services, and lower affordability due to the tax changes.”

It seems like we are much closer to the top and the tax law change was the final straw for a lot of Westchester residents. Areas with very high property tax rates like Edgemont at ~3.7% seem to be suffering the most.
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:27 AM
 
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I agree with you. Plus, rising rates are a big problem for many people in the age-40-and-under contingency who have basically never known a normal rate environment in their adult lives. They're conditioned to think interest rates lower than inflation are normal, and the adjustment, however gradual, will still mean a world of pain for those who live their lives according to monthly payments. Westchester, with all of its old money and Wall Street-windfall types, will be somewhat immune--but not completely.

It seems to me that high tax exurbs like Briarcliff (3.3!! for what??), Chappaqua and the like will have to feel some pretty significant pain.

Prices in many areas are falling now. I'm looking at properties that are hovering around their 2004 or 2012 prices, depending on when the last transaction was (before the peak or after the fall, basically). The question is whether this is a falling knife situation and there's more to come. Economic fundamentals are likely to remain strong for another year, I'd think.
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:30 AM
 
77 posts, read 32,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demographer View Post
I agree with you. Plus, rising rates are a big problem for many people in the age-40-and-under contingency who have basically never known a normal rate environment in their adult lives. They're conditioned to think interest rates lower than inflation are normal, and the adjustment, however gradual, will still mean a world of pain for those who live their lives according to monthly payments. Westchester, with all of its old money and Wall Street-windfall types, will be somewhat immune--but not completely.

It seems to me that high tax exurbs like Briarcliff (3.3!! for what??), Chappaqua and the like will have to feel some pretty significant pain.

Prices in many areas are falling now. I'm looking at properties that are hovering around their 2004 or 2012 prices, depending on when the last transaction was (before the peak or after the fall, basically). The question is whether this is a falling knife situation and there's more to come. Economic fundamentals are likely to remain strong for another year, I'd think.
Agree 100% with you!
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Old 08-12-2018, 12:51 PM
 
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Originally Posted by demographer View Post

Prices in many areas are falling now. I'm looking at properties that are hovering around their 2004 or 2012 prices, depending on when the last transaction was (before the peak or after the fall, basically). The question is whether this is a falling knife situation and there's more to come. Economic fundamentals are likely to remain strong for another year, I'd think.
Eh, I'm not sure I agree, at least across the board -- and I think it depends on what housing stock you are looking at. I do think houses that are on the high end of the scale ($1.75M and above) are possibly sitting longer/coming down in price, but I think the more modest 3/4 bed, 2/3 bath 1900 - 2400 square foot houses that are common in most towns are doing just fine, with solid price appreciation, especially in those towns/villages that have reputations for good school districts.

I also believe that, in the long run, there will *always* be more demand than supply for such homes in towns/villages with good schools and are relatively short commutes to GCT (45-59 minute train ride max). Different people have different motivations, but there is a regular, steady and reliable migration of former city dwellers in their 30s/40s to Westchester. And given the abundance of relatively well paying jobs in NYC, such demand will always be able to afford such supply, if not drive prices up. There will be blips, of course (recessions), and the taxes are nuts, which does cause many people to balk -- but there have been, and I believe always will be, moneyed buyers to step in and keep prices on a relatively consistent upward trajectory.

p.s. My user name is outdated, I live in Pelham and have for the past few years (love it here).
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Old 08-13-2018, 09:10 AM
 
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I personally, as much as I love the idea of walking and the subway, don’t know how anyone can compare FH queens to westchester. It’s NOT the same. I lived there and left for BK. There is dog poop everywhere. So dirty! So crowded and the schools are just not the same. At least the number of students in a class. Yeah westchester taxes are a killer and I would never buy a big house there but these towns are so nice. Often these towns have amazing playgrounds vs beat up in the city; nice pools - outdoor and indoor. I’m sorry but I lived in FH and was surrounded by the section 8 babushkas who would litter everywhere bc they just don’t care about the neighborhood! Same in BK. People don’t care about where they live. Social diversity is nice but only until you live surrounded by the people who don’t care bc they get things cheap and just bc they lived like this their entire lives. I cannot stand how dirty Brooklyn and queens are and they are NOT really affordable in terms of buying anyway. Maybe 10-15 years ago
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Old 08-13-2018, 09:12 AM
 
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What Brooklynbutlooking said.

There will always be price disruptions based on the economy, interest rates, etc. The difference is that Westchester is the best option for families with husbands and/or wives that work in Manhattan. I wouldn't live here if i didn't have my current job. It's absurdly expensive. But it's definitely more spacious than a 2BR in Manhattan and affords me the ability to get home at a reasonable hour to see my kids.
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Old 08-13-2018, 09:13 AM
 
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Let me also add this: MTA subway is very bad. I lost all my hopes for its improvement. Having this disgusting subway with rats and homeless people (almost every cart of the E train!) not even running on time ..? What’s the advantage of that?! I get into a depression mode coming back from Europe. If our train system was the same as in Germany or Russia yeah it would be a difficult train off. But mta is late 80% of time so I don’t perdonally see that much advantage in having it altogether
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Old 08-13-2018, 10:47 AM
 
143 posts, read 61,138 times
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Originally Posted by Citylife666 View Post
I personally, as much as I love the idea of walking and the subway, don’t know how anyone can compare FH queens to westchester. It’s NOT the same. I lived there and left for BK. There is dog poop everywhere. So dirty! So crowded and the schools are just not the same. At least the number of students in a class. Yeah westchester taxes are a killer and I would never buy a big house there but these towns are so nice. Often these towns have amazing playgrounds vs beat up in the city; nice pools - outdoor and indoor. I’m sorry but I lived in FH and was surrounded by the section 8 babushkas who would litter everywhere bc they just don’t care about the neighborhood! Same in BK. People don’t care about where they live. Social diversity is nice but only until you live surrounded by the people who don’t care bc they get things cheap and just bc they lived like this their entire lives. I cannot stand how dirty Brooklyn and queens are and they are NOT really affordable in terms of buying anyway. Maybe 10-15 years ago
I think, you need to be more specific and stop generalizing. BK is huge and very different (DUMBO vs. Brownsville) and so is the Westchester County (Scarsdale Village vs. Mt. Vernon). The FH Gardens and Cord Meyer areas aside (Cord Meyer is terribly ugly, BTW), most of FH looks and feels a lot like Eastchester/Tuckahoe and some parts look and feel like Yonkers.
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Old 08-13-2018, 11:57 AM
 
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I think people are confusing cleanliness with property value. In many cases, property value tends to increase the dirtier and more congested the area becomes. You can simply look at how dirty Manhattan is.

Of course, Westchester has good schools, has good parks, but so does NJ, LI or other burbs. So there is just so much supply vs limited demand. In the city, the land supply is so limited, and demand is much stronger than burbs
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Old 08-13-2018, 12:02 PM
 
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Even if you like the feel of the burbs, there are many areas in QUeens, like Bayside, Douglaston, LIttle neck that are not less desirable than any area in Westchester. And they come with shorter commute and better city vibe.
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