How Quiet is the Westchester Market?

[bmwguydc]

Originally Posted by seren77

Maybe 120K median household income is not correct. Maybe people are making much more than that.

Actually, that does not seem correct, but it seems too high. $120K HH median is in the same league as Irvington which is close to a $120k median, and Croton is not as uniformly affluent as Irvington. I thought the median in Croton was around $90k, perhaps it's an average HHI that is reported as close to $120k.

[havoc315]

It's hard to find reliable income statistics for non-census years. I believe Croton was around 90k, in 2000, and Irvington was around 120k at that time. But those numbers have increased over the last 9 years.
And let's not forget, that median income is often significantly below mean income. I believe the mean household income in Irvington was around 180k.
According to City data, the 2007 median household income in Croton was 102k, so the 120k may be inflated.

[bmwguydc]

Originally Posted by havoc315

It's hard to find reliable income statistics for non-census years. I believe Croton was around 90k, in 2000, and Irvington was around 120k at that time. But those numbers have increased over the last 9 years.
And let's not forget, that median income is often significantly below mean income. I believe the mean household income in Irvington was around 180k.
According to City data, the 2007 median household income in Croton was 102k, so the 120k may be inflated.

So true. I did a quick check and looked up one Croton zip code, which was around $90k, not the whole town.

[fyrisle]

You have to note that we can't look at past corrections and compare those to what is happening now. Real estate prices have never before risen by the amounts that they have in recent years so any correction will probably much more severe than in past years.

[ambarstone]

Originally Posted by halfoffpeak

Historical norm is easily defined. Case shiller index would show that a pre bubble price, say 1999 is close to a historical average. So if you would like to know whether a certain property is priced according to historical norms then you should find out what its price was that time (maybe it was sold in 1998 or 1999-or look at comparable properties). Then adjust for inflation using a cpi calculator such as

CPI Inflation Calculator

So for example, if you see a property that lists for $800K in 2009 but it was sold $400K in 1999 then using the calculator you will see that it "historical norm" price is $507K

This is not a prediction, housing always revert to average in free markets. But if I would have to predict then the above mentioned house should go for less than $507K because NYC was booming in 1999 but not so in 2009. Unfortunately a buyer must have patience, real estate corrections are slow. Don't fall for "buy now or you will be priced out forever".

__

Thanks for posting this link, it is very helpful and interesting. According to the calculator, the coop I saw in 99 for 75K should have a historical normal price of 95K (I am looking in the City of White Plains). Currently, these coops are sold for well over 200K! These are still really over inflated prices...these type of properties, as well as condos, do not seem to be going down more than a 5% or so. What would it take for coops/condos have a real correction? I am having trouble understanding why they don't go down like houses are.

[havoc315]

Condos and co-ops are actually being hit pretty hard in this correction. In my development, condos that sold for over 700k, are now going for under 600k. A 15-20% drop.
I am familiar with a co-op building in Mamaroneck, where prices have dropped from about 280 to 230-240. A 15-20% correction. All very consistent, or even slightly worse, than the rest of the Westchester market.

Nobody can predict the future. There are a few experts who think we will continue to see dramatic further declines. I see many of the foremost experts suggesting we are close, with perhaps another 10% to go. And now, with the most recent drop in mortgage rates to all time lows, and some of the economic indicators, some experts are now saying we are at the bottom now.

[ambarstone]

Originally Posted by havoc315

Condos and co-ops are actually being hit pretty hard in this correction. In my development, condos that sold for over 700k, are now going for under 600k. A 15-20% drop.
I am familiar with a co-op building in Mamaroneck, where prices have dropped from about 280 to 230-240. A 15-20% correction. All very consistent, or even slightly worse, than the rest of the Westchester market.

Nobody can predict the future. There are a few experts who think we will continue to see dramatic further declines. I see many of the foremost experts suggesting we are close, with perhaps another 10% to go. And now, with the most recent drop in mortgage rates to all time lows, and some of the economic indicators, some experts are now saying we are at the bottom now.

____
Thanks...I think part of my problem is that I am looking in White Plains and in the lower range. It's going to be hard for sellers in my range to be as negotiable as I would like. If I think on the rewards of coop living, 230-240 is still too expensive. I agree that with these low mortgage rates, prices may not continue going down as they were, but I don't feel right paying more than 180 for a two bed coop either (2004 price range). What to do!

[havoc315]

You may have a point about lack of flexibility. Many co-op residents are not long term. Singles, couples, younger families, who may only intend to stay 5-10 years. As such, they STOL have significant mortgages, and cannot sell for less than their mortgage.

That said, the market is what it is. Inflexibilty won't allow someone to get more than market price.

Also, don't mistake asking price for actual selling price. Take an apartment that sold at the peak in 2007, for 280k. Suppose it is now listed for 250k. The seller may actually take 225k, a full 20% off peak value.
Selling prices are currently comparable to late 2004.

I fully understand price consciousness. The difference between a 230k and 180k apartment, at current mortgage rates, is about $250 per month.

[NJGirl12]

Originally Posted by seren77

Do you know any river town we can afford on 160K salary?

What type of house are you looking for? Have you visited Peekskill?

One other thing to consider is that when you are in the (relatively) lower range of existing housing stock, you sometimes have to look for a house that has the potential to be what you want, not for one that is "perfect."

Good luck and hang in there.

[seren77]

Originally Posted by NJGirl12

What type of house are you looking for? Have you visited Peekskill?

One other thing to consider is that when you are in the (relatively) lower range of existing housing stock, you sometimes have to look for a house that has the potential to be what you want, not for one that is "perfect."

Good luck and hang in there.

I am looking for a two bedroom house. Yes, I have been to Peekskill. It doesn't work for me because I need access to Amtrak.

I am not necessarily looking for something "perfect", but it has to be livable for sure. I saw places like seller asks 435K for the house that walls are covered with mold, but it was at least "freshly painted".