Bubble in Asheville (Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham: sales, real estate market, foreclosure)

[Streetchie]

Is Asheville seeing ill effects from the real estate bubble? What's the housing inventory look like? Are prices dropping or hanging in there?

[Crazy G]

I don't think that ALL areas up here experienced the bubble effect, like Florida, California, or Arizona...
Certainly, there are some areas, where prices up here more than doubled in the last 5 years....
According to a recent survey [2005]..median price houses in Henderson County were $259K....YES!!! This is significantly more than the average wage earner makes, to afford theses houses....IT"S TRUE!!!
But down in Palm Beach County, Fl...current median is $365K....Was $415K back in 2005.....with median income $60K [>6 times house prices]....
Taxes are a pitance @...$57/K in Henderson cty vs $250/K in Palm Bch Cty...

Inventories are very high, as sales have slowed, because people can't unload their homes in other areas [Florida?]....Prices are down slightly, as the full effects of the slow down are late up here, as they were going up [late]..

There are nowhere near the foreclosuers up here that are going on in So Fla...NOT EVEN A FRACTION....In Raleigh & Charlotte...It's a different story!!!!!

Asheville, has a lot of crime & drug dealings....you really should be careful, where you end up....

Good Luck!!!!

[the Parkies]

[quote=Crazy G;2245671
Asheville, has a lot of crime & drug dealings....you really should be careful, where you end up....[/QUOTE]

A LOT of crime and drug dealings?? Compared to... WHOSE?? If you're comparing Asheville's crime to that of some other town's, are you comparing populations as well?? If population (crime per capita) isn't the basis for your statement, then what IS??

A "little," "a lot," "less," "more"--these are all relative terms, absolutely meaningless without reference to numbers, facts, context. I really have a ton of trouble understanding references on this forum to crime in the Asheville area. Some folks get all excited about two murders. Hey--murder, like car accidents and child abuse, happens everywhere. So do drugs, unfortunately--which cause murder, car accidents, and child abuse.

Can any one of us talk about a town (of any size over about five thousand) that doesn't have a single murder all year long?? If so, thanks be to God--but just wait another year. I mean, we're talking about a phenomenon that began with Cain and Abel--and given the 25% murder rate at that time, one could get really worried! But what's the murder rate in your town today?? What's the murder rate in Asheville today??

Drugs?? Same thing. I remember how shocked I was when I first heard about drugs in my little PA hometown of 13,000. Can any one of you tell me now about a town of any size over about five thousand that doesn't have a problem of any kind with drugs??? If so, thanks be to God--but just wait another year.

(Same thing, by the way, with gangs.)

I wish it were different. I truly hope to hear from zillions of you about that town that has no crime and no drugs or at least not enough to write home about.

Which returns me to my point. The Asheville area has nothing to write home about, either, if we're talking about crime and drug problems per capita.

Am I wrong??? I'd so love to be wrong about this!!!

Jan

[the Parkies]

P.S. I posted this as a response to the OP because I believe that questions about real estate are intimately connected to questions about crime.

[Fitz]

Is Asheville seeing ill effects from the real estate bubble?

The answer is "yes".

The first ill effect was over-development. The latest ill effect is a depressed real estate market. This October's unit sales were down 39% from October 06.

A LOT of crime and drug dealings?? Compared to... WHOSE??

Compared with Asheville of 5 to 10 years ago. But that's right, you just moved here and are still on your honeymoon

[the Parkies]

Originally Posted by Fitz

The answer is "yes".

The first ill effect was over-development. The latest ill effect is a depressed real estate market. This October's unit sales were down 39% from October 06.



Compared with Asheville of 5 to 10 years ago. But that's right, you just moved here and are still on your honeymoon

Are you suggesting that Asheville's population hasn't increased correspondingly with its crime rate of five to ten years ago??

[Flat2MT]

Streetchie asked about RE...so I will stick to that thought.

In reference to the 'real estate' bubble, Fitz is right on. I understand the point Crazy G is trying to make about RE but I'd like to know his data source.

Bottom line is Asheville is extremely overpriced. Those who bought at the height of the market will experience buyer's (financial) remorse but should see normal appreciation down the road.

Yes, there are cul de sacs in Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area with foreclosure signs all about. I read somewhere recently that if your house is within X-feet of a foreclosure, your house automatically takes a $16K hit! That's was an eye opener. Add more than one, and I bet it isn't pretty.

I think Asheville is positioned to weather the coming storm better than most areas due to the high retiree population but we'll see substantial price corrections in the short term to bring values back into line.

One other drawback is some of the newer homes have the taxman's assessment which unfortunately will not be reduced just because the value has corrected (higher tax assessments when compared to actual value). Paying more in taxes relative to its market value isn't easy to swallow even temporarily. I guess you can always petition the assessor to reassess your home but that's a two edged sword.

[NCBND]

I'm watching the Asheville-area situation closely given all of the dire housing news of late. I bought some land there and so have a vested interest in what happens in that market. The prevailing realtor/Chamber of Commerce line seems to be that Asheville was not a bubble market like FL and so won't get spanked like the unfortunates down there, and that a continued influx of retirees will be the life preserver for values in WNC. My take on it is that WNC did in fact have a tremendous runup over the past 5 years which only looks moderate in contrast to the 30% (or more) annual appreciation rates in the hottest US markets. A major source of the real estate investment dollars coming into WNC were from FL, whether from halfback retirees or investors.

That FL money is now dried up, removing a major market inflator in WNC. FL property is just about unsaleable right now. I was in Asheville in October and the homefinder magazines seemed to be about double the usual thickness. I know, not very scientific, but I think emblematic of a slowing market. I am very bullish on WNC in the long term but I think that the next few years will be the times that try mens' and womens' souls in the real estate market just about everywhere. However, if you have guts, patience and self-discipline it'll be a great time to be a buyer in a year or two when the sellers finally see reality. Right now most of them are still in the denial phase.

[Flat2MT]

NCBND, your explanation is dead on. Especially your last thought.....

I too am bullish on WNC but I am prepared for it to get much worse before it can even begin to get better.

Check out this forum...Jus' West of Asheville....where we've recently discussed this same topic.

[Streetchie]

Thanks all. Great info.