ABC News to report from Asheville (sale, real estate market, foreclosures)

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Kootr

I don't think you'll find the information you request on the Internet, but it's true.

So am I supposed to just take your word for it? We have to set the bar higher than mere anecdotes and hearsay.

Builders built numerous high-end spec houses throughout the area as well as complete developments.

Once again, words like "numerous" and "quite a bit" are so general that they are hardly useful in drawing any kind of rational conclusion.

The number of these houses of course are nothing compared to that built in CA, FL, etc. because the area is much smaller, yet for the size of area the number is indeed "quite a bit".

If you want this claim to hold water -- that Asheville is going to experience the same level of downturn as these other markets -- then you'd have to supply some kind of objective evidence that shows that the level of speculation is proportionally comparable to those markets. Otherwise, it's just another (unsubstantiated) opinion.

[Kootr]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

So am I supposed to just take your word for it? We have to set the bar higher than mere anecdotes and hearsay.



Once again, words like "numerous" and "quite a bit" are so general that they are hardly useful in drawing any kind of rational conclusion.



If you want this claim to hold water -- that Asheville is going to experience the same level of downturn as these other markets -- then you'd have to supply some kind of objective evidence that shows that the level of speculation is proportionally comparable to those markets. Otherwise, it's just another (unsubstantiated) opinion.

Well, well. Apparently you don't believe what you're being told. If you want your claim to hold water how about you proving it with some hard-core evidence. It's your turn. I'll be waiting!

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Kootr

Well, well. Apparently you don't believe what you're being told. If you want your claim to hold water how about you proving it with some hard-core evidence. It's your turn. I'll be waiting!

It's not that I necessarily don't believe it, it's just that you have given me no reason to (vague generalizations with no supporting evidence is a rather low standard of proof, don't you think?).

You made the claim -- the burden of proof is on you to support it. Otherwise it's just another opinion. Think about it -- it would be rather silly of me to make the claim, for example, that humans evolved from six-legged amphibious space creatures and then proclaim that it's up to you to prove me wrong.

Your reasoning is fallacious. See:

Fallacy: Burden of Proof

Besides, I already supplied a source with evidence that the level of speculation in the Asheville market was *not* as severe as these other markets.

[Kootr]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

It's not that I necessarily don't believe it, it's just that you have given me no reason to (vague generalizations with no supporting evidence is a rather low standard of proof, don't you think?).

You made the claim -- the burden of proof is on you to support it. Otherwise it's just another opinion. Think about it -- it would be rather silly of me to make the claim, for example, that humans evolved from six-legged amphibious space creatures and then proclaim that it's up to you to prove me wrong.

Your reasoning is fallacious. See:

Fallacy: Burden of Proof

Besides, I already supplied a source with evidence that the level of speculation in the Asheville market was *not* as severe as these other markets.

You might want to re-read what I said. If your comprehension skills are normal you will realize that I made no claim whatsoever. I did however state my opinion, which is not to be construed as a claim...

I don't think you'll find the information you request on the Internet, but it's true. Builders built numerous high-end spec houses throughout the area as well as complete developments. The number of these houses of course are nothing compared to that built in CA, FL, etc. because the area is much smaller, yet for the size of area the number is indeed "quite a bit".

If you are a local in the Asheville area you know full-well that many builders have built high-end spec houses that haven't sold. You also know that many high-end non-primary houses are on the market for sale. You also know that many high-end houses have been built for non-primary residents, which could not be sold if they were put on the market. In other words - there is a glut of high-end houses and they are not selling. You don't need to be a genius to know this...and you certainly shouldn't need unquestionable, undeniable rock-hard proof before you accept it.

Can you prove to me that you are human? Why should I believe you? Something tells me that you might be a six-legged amphibious space creature. See how obtuse that argument sounds? A little logic and reasoning goes a long way to a having a dialog worth continuing, but if one side falls short there really is no need to continue the dialog. Does that make any sense to you? Or would you prefer to compare an opinion based on knowledge and good reasoning with six-legged amphibious space creatures?

[jstubbspt]

Paddler all you need to do is drive around the Asheville area to see the high end speculative market. Pick up any of the local real estate magazines. I'm sorry I can't provide you links for every development in the area. Asheville is a speculative market. Much like Bend, Santa Fe, and Northern Arizona. The comparison to Florida and California was merely in regards to price declines. Prices held steady in those markets or rose slightly as demand dropped. Major price decline followed.

I'm curious as to how long you've lived in the area. This massive development is a relatively new phenomena to the area only occurring in the last 5-6 years. So the development in WNC is merely a coincidence that coincided with the housing bubble, or part of the bubble itself. We'll see if demand picks up in the spring.

Here's the National Association of Realtors forecast:

Real Estate Insights

Here's the forecast by the author of the Market Ticker blog who's been rather prescient on our economic circumstances to date:

The Market Ticker - Entries from Wednesday, December 31. 2008

Up to you to decide whom to believe. Either the Asheville economy which is HEAVILY service, construction, and tourism biased will survive and flourish, or it will wilt under the strain of the beginnings of a prolonged recessing (God forbid we have a bond market dislocation and tumble into another Great Depression).

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Kootr

I made no claim whatsoever. I did however state my opinion, which is not to be construed as a claim...

Yeah, but we all know what opinions are like . . . the question is, what *objective evidence* is your opinion based on? Anecdotes/hearsay, while not altogether useless, are generally considered the lowest possible form of evidence.

jstubbspt claimed implicitly that Asheville is going to experience the same sort of crash as the FLA and CA markets, and that is the point I am addressing. Now do you agree or disagree?

If you agree, then you'll have to come up with some kind of evidence in order for your opinion to be taken seriously, because it does not follow that because there are "many" unsold high-end houses in Asheville that that market has seen the kind of speculation that has plagued the FLA and CA markets. It's a total non-sequitir.

Sincerely,

NC_Paddler, part human, part six-legged amphibious space creature

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by jstubbspt

Paddler all you need to do is drive around the Asheville area to see the high end speculative market. Pick up any of the local real estate magazines. I'm sorry I can't provide you links for every development in the area. Asheville is a speculative market. Much like Bend, Santa Fe, and Northern Arizona. The comparison to Florida and California was merely in regards to price declines. Prices held steady in those markets or rose slightly as demand dropped. Major price decline followed.

Sorry, but your opinion remains unsubstantiated. Asheville is not Vegas or Miami or LA or Sante Fe. Apples and oranges. It's a total non-sequitir that what happend there will happen here.

Until you supply some kind of objective evidence that the level of speculation in Asheville is comparable to these other markets, you're just offering another opinion, and with all due respect, there are no shortage of those out there.

You may be right; you may be wrong. You just haven't given us any reason to believe that you're right (sorry, but driving around Asheville is not sufficient evidence to support your claim).

[jstubbspt]

Asheville median income:

Asheville People & Asheville Demographics - Zillow Local Info

Asheville median home value:

Asheville Home Values, House Prices, and Property Values - Zillow Local Info

Disconnect between median home price and median income (Article from 2007)

The Dangerous Disconnect Between Home Prices and Fundamentals | eFinanceDirectory.com

Edit: If you wish to continue this I'll post a list of developments with houses starting in the 400K range that have been built since 2004 and I'll limit myself to southern Buncombe county; specifically the Arden and Avery's Creek area tomorrow.

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by jstubbspt

Asheville median income:

Asheville People & Asheville Demographics - Zillow Local Info

Asheville median home value:

Asheville Home Values, House Prices, and Property Values - Zillow Local Info

Disconnect between median home price and median income (Article from 2007)

The Dangerous Disconnect Between Home Prices and Fundamentals | eFinanceDirectory.com

Edit: If you wish to continue this I'll post a list of developments with houses starting in the 400K range that have been built since 2004 and I'll limit myself to southern Buncombe county; specifically the Arden and Avery's Creek area tomorrow.

As I'm sure you know, the disconnect in home price and income can be explained by the unique makeup of the Asheville area -- lots of rich, retired people and "trust fund kids" who have driven home prices higher. So as a matter of demographics, Asheville is always going to have an "inflated" housing market, in good times and in bad. At least until people decide to stop retiring there.

So your "evidence" does not support the conclusion.

Interestingly, Countrywide performed a detailed analysis of the various US housing markets by county, and ranked them from 1 to 5, with 5 being the riskiest markets and 1 being the most stable. They ranked Buncombe County a 1. (disclaimer -- I believe this study was performed in January of 2008).

http://blownmortgage.com/wp-content/...oftmarkets.pdf

So that tells me that mortgage lenders are a lot more comfortable loaning money people to buy homes in the Asheville area than say Broward County, FL or San Bernardino County, CA. So this doesn't jive with the doomsday scenario you painted, and I would think if anyone were to err on the side of caution, it would be the mortgage lenders.

Are you aware of a detailed analysis by a major mortgage lender showing evidence to the contrary? Because generally that type of evidence is preferable to "driving around Asheville".

[Kootr]

1
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #430856
$4,200,000 3 Bedrooms 2 Full, 2 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 1.86 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 6270; Yr. Built: 2007 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 2
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #417208
$3,425,000 3 Bedrooms 3 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 5.11 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 4113; Yr. Built: 2008 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 3
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #423613
$2,695,000 5 Bedrooms 5 Full, 2 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 1.02 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 7179; Yr. Built: 2003 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 4
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #422323
$2,195,000 5 Bedrooms 5 Full, 2 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 1.64 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 6000; Yr. Built: 2003 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 5
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #421188
$1,999,995 4 Bedrooms 2 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 3.94 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 3932; Yr. Built: 1947 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 6
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #421183
$1,999,995
8 More Pictures... Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 3.94 Acres; Yr. Built: N / A Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 7
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #422080
$1,695,000 3 Bedrooms 3 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
5 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: .6 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 4449; Yr. Built: 2005 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 8
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #427548
$1,595,000 4 Bedrooms 3 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 2.29 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 4060; Yr. Built: 2008 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 9
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #414800
$1,389,000 5 Bedrooms 4 Full, 2 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: 1.64 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 5586; Yr. Built: 2006 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 10
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #420243
$1,370,000 3 Bedrooms 3 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active

Complex: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: .1 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 3639; Yr. Built: 2007 Schedule
Showing Save
Listing

11
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #420206
$1,325,000 3 Bedrooms 3 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
Virtual Tour Status: Active

Subdivision: Reynolds Mountain; Lot Area: .48 Acres; Appx Sq Ft: 3800; Yr. Built: N / A Schedule
Showing Save
Listing 12
Asheville, NC 28804 - Buncombe Co. #426878
$1,300,000 5 Bedrooms 4 Full, 1 Half Bathrooms
8 More Pictures... Virtual Tour Status: Active


The above 12 listings are just a few of the 69 listings (see link below) for just one small area (Reynolds Mountain). It should give a just a tiny glimpse of the multitude of high-end housing that is for sale in the Asheville area.

Carolina Mountain Group - Search Results

The Cliffs: Carolina Mountain Group - Search Results

Mountain Air: Carolina Mountain Group - Search Results

Wolf Laurel: Carolina Mountain Group - Search Results

And this list goes on, and on, and on, and on...and on, and on, and on...