Cramer calls housing market bottom in June '09 (Asheville: sale, real estate)

[NC_Paddler]

There are all kinds of opinions out there, from "it's the end of the world" to "the housing market is bottoming". Former Hedge Fund manager and current CNBC analyst/stock market guru Jim Cramer appears to be in the latter camp, and offers his reasons in the following analysis. Should be interesting to see if he's right:

Mad Money: Cramer Calls the Housing Bottom - Mad Cap Recap - CNBC.com

[Asheville Native]

Perhaps his guess will be accurate, perhaps not. But either way it will be "on average". Asheville was one of the last to get on the real estate crash bus, and may be the last to get off the crash bus.

Places like Kalifornia who were the first on the bus, may take many years to get off, as they have the anchor of a tanking state government to tend to.

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Asheville Native

Perhaps his guess will be accurate, perhaps not.

But it's not a "guess". He provided 10 reasons behind his prediction and provided a detailed analysis of those reasons. That's certainly a much more rigorous analysis than any of the doomsayers on this board have provided.

But either way it will be "on average". Asheville was one of the last to get on the real estate crash bus, and may be the last to get off the crash bus.

Places like Kalifornia who were the first on the bus, may take many years to get off, as they have the anchor of a tanking state government to tend to.

Once again, it is unreasonable to make comparisons to the CA market -- *totally* different market.

Also keep in mind that he is predicting a "bottom", which doesn't mean that prices are going to immediately start going back up, only that they won't continue to fall any further.

[Cofga]

Cramer may be right or he may be wrong--personally I hope he is right since it fits well with my retirement plans. He may have reasonable sounding reasons for his predictions, but they are still only informed guesses.

The Asheville market is dependent on the strength of the market in other areas since the housing market there is heavily dependent on the sale of homes to retirees and folks with bucks who want second homes. Until areas like Florida, California, etc. recover Asheville will languish and it's recovery will lag behind the others. Those potential buyers will still be waiting for their homes to sell so they can move to NC where they can drive you locals crazy--LJP

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Cofga

Cramer may be right or he may be wrong--personally I hope he is right since it fits well with my retirement plans. He may have reasonable sounding reasons for his predictions, but they are still only informed guesses.

I'd say they are more than "reasonable sounding" . . . they are reasonable. The stock market is almost always a leading indicator of the corresponding economic conditions, so it's certainly reasonable to draw the conclusions he has drawn.

But of course could be wrong -- the inherent problem with any prediction is that lots of things could happen between now and then to change it.

A "guess" gives the impression of someone throwing out a random answer, and that is clearly not the case here (I think the phrase "informed guess" is an oxymoron -- if it's informed, it's not a guess). Anyone familiar with Cramer knows that he is a rigorous researcher, and because he makes public calls in front of millions of people, he's highly motivated to do his due diligence before placing his head on the guillotine. That fact lends some credence to his analysis, imo.

The Asheville market is dependent on the strength of the market in other areas since the housing market there is heavily dependent on the sale of homes to retirees and folks with bucks who want second homes. Until areas like Florida, California, etc. recover Asheville will languish and it's recovery will lag behind the others. Those potential buyers will still be waiting for their homes to sell so they can move to NC where they can drive you locals crazy--LJP

I agree with you that there is a connection between the two, and I wouldn't expect things to get much better anytime soon in the Asheville market. But if the markets like CA and FLA do start to bottom, then at least things won't get worse in Asheville, which is a point worth considering.

And as another poster rightly pointed out, the pain is disproportionately felt in the high-end McMansion market, which certainly has an effect on the average Joe, but not as much.

[Asheville Native]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

But it's not a "guess". He provided 10 reasons behind his prediction and provided a detailed analysis of those reasons. That's certainly a much more rigorous analysis than any of the doomsayers on this board have provided.

Geez, I make a comment that he might be right, or he might not, and you go off the deep end?

It is just a discussion, and there ain't a single fact anywhere to be seen, as it is about the FUTURE, you know the great unknown that hasn't happened yet?

It is all opinion, mine, yours, Cramers, etc. and everyone has one just like they have a butt, but having a TV rant doesn't provide anymore accuracy or creditability, just a better medium from which to express one's OPINION

Nor was the definition of "bottom" challenged. But in markets what usually happens after a "bottom" is reached. Google it

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Asheville Native

It is all opinion, mine, yours, Cramers, etc. and everyone has one just like they have a butt, but having a TV rant doesn't provide anymore accuracy or creditability, just a better medium from which to express one's OPINION

Obviously not all opinions are created equally. What separates his opinions from others, for example, is that:

-- he was a Hedge Fund manager for 15+ years and has extensive knowledge about the workings of the market

-- he has written numerous books on the subject

-- he is famously rigorous in his research and doesn't just pull things out of his butt

-- he is highly motivated to do his due diligence given his wide exposure and the high potential for public humiliation if he's wrong

-- the reason he has a show on a major tv network is because he is an expert

and most importantly

-- he has provided a detailed analysis with sound reasoning and facts to support his position.

Compare his analysis with the ones offered on this board by the doomsayers and it becomes quite obvious that all opinions are *not* created equally.

Of course, having said all that, he still could be wrong. But there are legitimate reasons why he is paid millions of dollars to offer his opinions on TV to millions of people around the world. Naturally I'm open to contrasting analyses that are equally reasonable, should any be offered. So far, none have been.

[Asheville Native]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

Obviously not all opinions are created equally. What separates his opinions from others, for example, is that:

-- he was a Hedge Fund manager for 15+ years and has extensive knowledge about the workings of the market

-- he has written numerous books on the subject

-- he is famously rigorous in his research and doesn't just pull things out of his butt

-- he is highly motivated to do his due diligence given his wide exposure and the high potential for public humiliation if he's wrong

-- the reason he has a show on a major tv network is because he is an expert

and most importantly

-- he has provided a detailed analysis with sound reasoning and facts to support his position.

Compare his analysis with the ones offered on this board by the doomsayers and it becomes quite obvious that all opinions are *not* created equally.

Of course, having said all that, he still could be wrong. But there are legitimate reasons why he is paid millions of dollars to offer his opinions on TV to millions of people around the world. Naturally I'm open to contrasting analyses that are equally reasonable, should any be offered. So far, none have been.

Loooooooong way of saying "it is just an opinion"

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by Asheville Native

Loooooooong way of saying "it is just an opinion"

No, it's not just another opinion -- it is an informed opinion from a market expert who supplied a rational analysis backed up with relevant facts and details, which contrasts greatly from yours.

Jim Cramer = millionaire ex-Hedge Fund manager, stock market expert, and best-selling author who laid out detailed, reason-based argument on TV for millions to see.

Asheville Native = anonymous chat room poster whose analysis consists of "Asheville was one of the last to get on the real estate crash bus, and may be the last to get off the crash bus.".

[jstubbspt]

Jim Cramer - losing his gullible followers lots of money buying into Wachovia before it tanked.

Jim Cramer Admits: "I Screwed Up" In Recommending Wachovia Stock Two Weeks Ago Because I Liked The CEO

Jim Cramer's predictions for last year

Jim Cramer's 10 Predictions for 2008 -- Seeking Alpha

How's that $300 a share GS treatin' ya?
You rolling in cash from your $1000 a share GOOG stock?

Here's a man with a much better track record for the past year, and he researches and backs up his assertions too.

The Market Ticker - Entries from Wednesday, December 31. 2008

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