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Western North Carolina The Mountain Region including Asheville
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Old 05-11-2009, 07:28 PM
 
Location: Lowcountry
764 posts, read 951,989 times
Reputation: 410
Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_Paddler View Post
No thanks -- let them wallow in their own pessimism . . . misery loves company, as they say, but it's not my job to convince them that the world is not going to end.
Sounds like somebody bought a home at top of the bubble and now is having a hard time selling....while in the denial phase.

Don't fret, you aren't the only one.
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Old 05-11-2009, 07:45 PM
 
1,129 posts, read 1,931,166 times
Reputation: 550
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
BTW, over here in Colorado, the sky is still up there where it's supposed to be! Glad to hear that it's still hanging up there in Asheville too. According to some, it should have fallen by now.
Asheville was actually the first city in the country to enact predatory lending laws, which is why there hasn't been nearly the amount of speculation there. It's one of the many reasons Asheville's home prices are holding up better than most places in the country.

Helicopter Ben sees some light at the end of the tunnel as well:

"The housing market is beginning to stabilize, and the recession should end later this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress this week. However, Bernanke said this will happen only if the financial system continues to gradually improve and doesn't relapse into a credit squeeze. The slight improvement with the housing market is the first to be seen in three years. Bernanke said that sales of resale homes are stable, and sales of new homes have recently increased, though both still remain at depressed levels. According to Bernanke, the affordability of homes is the most steadying factor.


Though the housing market is looking up and Bernanke hypothesizes that the recession's end is in sight, he said that growth will remain slow and unemployment high for a year after the recession ends.


"We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," Bernanke told the congressional Joint Economic Committee."


Bernanke: Housing market stabilizing | Real Estate and Technology News for Agents, Brokers and Investors | Inman News


The market obviously believes that things aren't as bad as advertised; we haven't seen this kind of rally in decades! And the most recent batch of news from the housing sector has almost entirely been better than anticipated.


Of course, the doomsayers in their infinite wisdom will point to the rising unemployment rates as evidence that the world is coming to an end. But unemployment is always a lagging indicator.



The doomsayers will be a day late and a dollar short, as usual.
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Old 05-11-2009, 08:09 PM
 
141 posts, read 209,931 times
Reputation: 87
Refutation of what you just wrote.

The Economic Tsunami Is Curling Over - The Market Ticker

Ben Bernanke is the problem not the solution.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Sales tax receipts are not.

Confirming recession, North Carolina tax receipts plunge 40% - Triangle Business Journal:

And one more link related to the above conversation just for the heck of it.

Calculated Risk: A Return to Trend Growth in 2010?
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Old 05-11-2009, 09:35 PM
 
16,311 posts, read 13,645,833 times
Reputation: 7946
Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_Paddler View Post
It's hard to carry on a rational conversation with someone who doesn't even bother to read what I wrote.
Or states the future as if they were factual and not speculative or just opinion, or even just wishful thinking.
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Old 05-11-2009, 09:40 PM
 
Location: Up above the world so high!
43,739 posts, read 53,292,302 times
Reputation: 36356
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flat2MT View Post
Sounds like somebody bought a home at top of the bubble and now is having a hard time selling....while in the denial phase.

Don't fret, you aren't the only one.
Funny how any time anyone doesn't share the same opinions as some of you, this is what we get accused of
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Old 05-12-2009, 07:03 AM
 
Location: Rockledge, FL
5 posts, read 12,968 times
Reputation: 10
Historically, Buncombe lags 3 years behind Florida. But you have to look at Asheville's home price index versus the per capita income and it is almost headed 2:1 - OFHEO Home Price Indices

While Greenvile has maintained a unison - OFHEO Home Price Indices
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Old 05-12-2009, 08:07 AM
 
16,623 posts, read 13,362,674 times
Reputation: 11439
Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_Paddler View Post
So? Are they going to blow up the mountains and burn down the forests and close down the art galleries and block off the blue ridge parkway and close down all the restaurants and change the climate? If not, then people with money are still going to move to/visit Asheville to enjoy all that it has to offer, and the home prices here will continue to trend higher than in other cities of comparable size.
You really do think it was art galleries and mountains that caused Asheville home prices to rise, don't you?

Quote:
Retirees desiring to move to a particular location is not an aberration; it is a trend -- and one that is not going to be stopped by financial bubbles bursting or economic downturns. Obviously, that trend will slow, and as we've seen, the housing market has taken a big hit. But the sky ain't fallin'.
Indeed, Retirees desiring to move is not an aberration.

Halfback retirees having 401k's bloated by bogus corporate earnings and $500k worth of equity to unload in the Asheville market was an aberration, though.

Quote:
Straw man.

Prices have already fallen . . . they just haven't fallen to the levels that the doomsayers keep expecting, with their twisted logic about how they think markets work.
Right back atcha with the strawman - you have no idea what my expectations are. And don't forget your reliance on ad hominems. You seem to get your kicks by namecalling.

Furthermore, I am disinterested in the matter. Up or down, I am not a participant in the Asheville market. What about you? You sure are bullish, I wonder if you stand to gain from high prices?

Last edited by le roi; 05-12-2009 at 08:36 AM..
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Old 05-12-2009, 08:39 AM
 
1,129 posts, read 1,931,166 times
Reputation: 550
Quote:
Originally Posted by ButchHowdy View Post
Historically, Buncombe lags 3 years behind Florida. But you have to look at Asheville's home price index versus the per capita income and it is almost headed 2:1 - OFHEO Home Price Indices
No, you don't have to look at that . . in fact, you shouldn't, because it's mostly irrelevant. The income statistics are skewed to the downside given that Asheville has so many retirees and trustafarians whose "incomes" aren't included those numbers.

You can't just blindly look at statistics, you have to consider the context.

Quote:
While Greenvile has maintained a unison - OFHEO Home Price Indices
Is there some universal law that I'm unaware of that states that Asheville's housing market should be identical to Greenville's?

This has been stated over and over again, but Asheville's market is unique, based on a number of factors, including:

-- Asheville is a retirement haven where lots of wealthy people come to retire, driving up home prices and increasing demand
-- those big rock-like thingies called "mountains" limit the amount of development that can take place, limiting supply of new development opportunities
-- Predatory lending laws have limited the amount of speculation, making this market more stable
-- traditional price-to-income ratios are all but useless in analyzing this market since they don't include a huge chunk of the money in the community
-- Asheville is a uniquely beautiful place that is going to demand a price premium based on it's location, climate, and access to quality health care

For these reasons and others, the downturn in the housing market here has been muted compared to other places in the country. And foreclosures in Asheville have been much lower than surrounding places:

Buncombe County Foreclosure Statistics, Trends and Heat Map - RealtyTrac

p.s. Home sales in Asheville are up about 30% this past month. Nevada home sales are up over 100%. California sales are up more than 80%. Florida sales up over 30%. 50% in Arizona. Granted, these are increases over dismal levels, but clearly this is a sign of the bottoming process, as the hardest hit markets tend to recover first.
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Old 05-12-2009, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Lowcountry
764 posts, read 951,989 times
Reputation: 410
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovesMountains View Post
Funny how any time anyone doesn't share the same opinions as some of you, this is what we get accused of
What would one call it if it isn't denial? Ignorance of economic reality? Arrogance?

Denial is what it is. Simple as that.

I have yet to see anyone refute the facts presented by those who understand economics.

More information 'irrelevant' to WNC....but interesting nonetheless.

Advanta Halts Credit-Card Lending Amid Surging Losses (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Foreclosure wave slams suburbia | Crain's Chicago Business
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Old 05-12-2009, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Up above the world so high!
43,739 posts, read 53,292,302 times
Reputation: 36356
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flat2MT View Post
What would one call it if it isn't denial? Ignorance of economic reality? Arrogance?

Denial is what it is. Simple as that.

I have yet to see anyone refute the facts presented by those who understand economics.

More information 'irrelevant' to WNC....but interesting nonetheless.

Advanta Halts Credit-Card Lending Amid Surging Losses (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Foreclosure wave slams suburbia | Crain's Chicago Business

Again, not sure what I would have to be in denial over? Not a seller, not a buyer, not a property owner in Asheville - I just don't happen to agree with the doom and gloomers on this thread, which doesn't make me wrong - just someone with a different opinion.
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