Is Asheville's Real Estate market picking up at all? (loans, how much)

[CosmicWizard]

Native....Since you didn't catch the humor ( is a pessimist even capable of understanding humor? ), I'll rewrite my post for you. During a time frame in which pessimists have predicted 15 recessions only 3 have actually occurred. It was meant as humor, not as a factual reality. Lighten up and smile. It'll make your day less serious.

[Flat2MT]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

The problem is that their opinions are emotionally based and not rational. Just look at their language . . . "economic tsunami" and such. Good lord.

Do you like 'green shoots' any better?
People watch too much TV and read too many "paid for" newsletters, where these media people cash in on your fear. There is always a negative bias in the media, because a fearful audience is a captive one, and that's good for business. And some of these folks are just echoing back things they've heard from various media outlets without taking the time to think critically for themselves.


If the 'media' told the truth, you wouldn't be blowing smoke.

Again, the market speaks for itself, and historic bounceback over the last couple of months is clearly an indication that the fear mongers were, once again, dead wrong.

Historic 'bounceback'? HUH? It is still way down from one year ago and has not even reached its DEC 2008 level. You need to look at the whole graph.

The US homebuilder's index, a forward-looking indicator, is up over 140 points -- that's a huge jump -- from the November lows, and we have not even come close to revisiting those lows.

Obviously we're going to see a correction into the summer months after this huge run-up, but it's clearly signaling that things are going to get better in the near future (late '09, early 2010 has been my estimate).

Now we will see a correction of the supposed historic 'bounceback!' So a negative correction 'clearly signals' better times ahead?
I am missing the logic here so please walk us thru this cause it aint that obvious.
Are the "good old days" here again? Of course not -- but as we struggle through these tough times, it's good to know that the bottoming process is underway. These are good signs for stabilization in the housing market, even if not a return to the irrational, inflated home prices of the last few years. And that's a good thing.

What exactly is the bottoming process which is underway?

[Asheville Native]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

Native....Since you didn't catch the humor ( is a pessimist even capable of understanding humor? ), I'll rewrite my post for you. During a time frame in which pessimists have predicted 15 recessions only 3 have actually occurred. It was meant as humor, not as a factual reality. Lighten up and smile. It'll make your day less serious.

No, it is more that I deal in facts, which 15 predictions and only 3 recessions, would you care to list specifics? Real facts serve one much better in the real world. Fairy tales are fine as bedtime stories for those that still believe magic works on real world issues.

[jstubbspt]

Another trenchant post from the ZeroHedge blog:

Zero Hedge: Guest Post: "Why I Am Freaking Out"

Asheville is not insulated from these greater macro economic issues. The sources I post help to shape my opinion of what is to come, but I do not mindlessly follow what is posted. How could I? There is dissent even amongst us so called "doomers." No one is certain what will happen in the long term, but as this point in time the underlying macro economic factors look bad. Not just for the US, but the entire global economy.

How one forms a cogent opinion of issues is follow both sides of the argument and compare and contrast the opposing points of view. At this point in time I do not see the "green shoots" purported to be sprouting up the the likes of Bernanke (who's Fed policies are going to cause greater harm than good...repeat after me "Bond Market Dislocation" you'll be learning the meaning of these 3 scary words in the future) Jim Cramer and the CNBC Pollyanas, and the Market Watch permabulls. To those such as Paddler who feel that we're about to turn the corner read the opinions of those who differ from you with an open mind. Form rational cogent arguments as to why us so called "doomers" are wrong and support your argument with hard data. Otherwise we'll just continue to go round and round in circles rehashing the same points.

[NC_Paddler]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

Native....Since you didn't catch the humor ( is a pessimist even capable of understanding humor? ), I'll rewrite my post for you. During a time frame in which pessimists have predicted 15 recessions only 3 have actually occurred. It was meant as humor, not as a factual reality. Lighten up and smile. It'll make your day less serious.

LOL! Trust me, you're wasting your time.

[NC_Paddler]

Greenspan: A housing bottom near

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today a bottom in the housing market is near.

Greenspan told a conference of the National Association of Realtors that the United States is "at the edge of a major liquidation" in the stock of unsold properties. That may help stabilize prices, he added.


More importantly, look at the US homebuilder's index, a leading indicator of the housing sector:


Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index ($DJUSHB) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money


Note the lows in the November 2008 and the higher lows in March 2009. Also note that sharp move higher since then. That spells bad news for the doom and gloomers.


Right now we're butting up against the 20-month moving average, which will provide some resistance, but we've got a long ways to go before a possible re-test of the March lows. If we do push through the March lows, then you might start to worry, but given the way the fundamentals are shifting, I don't think that's likely.


The quarterly chart shows an obvious bottom formation taking shape.


This summer may present the opportunity of a lifetime to buy certain homebuilder stocks at bargain basement prices.


Standard disclaimer: this is not advice, and don't be lazy -- do your own homework.

[jstubbspt]

Originally Posted by NC_Paddler

Greenspan: A housing bottom near

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today a bottom in the housing market is near.

Greenspan told a conference of the National Association of Realtors that the United States is "at the edge of a major liquidation" in the stock of unsold properties. That may help stabilize prices, he added.


More importantly, look at the US homebuilder's index, a leading indicator of the housing sector:


Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index ($DJUSHB) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money


Note the lows in the November 2008 and the higher lows in March 2009. Also note that sharp move higher since then. That spells bad news for the doom and gloomers.


Right now we're butting up against the 20-month moving average, which will provide some resistance, but we've got a long ways to go before a possible re-test of the March lows. If we do push through the March lows, then you might start to worry, but given the way the fundamentals are shifting, I don't think that's likely.


The quarterly chart shows an obvious bottom formation taking shape.


This summer may present the opportunity of a lifetime to buy certain homebuilder stocks at bargain basement prices.


Standard disclaimer: this is not advice, and don't be lazy -- do your own homework.

I'll call your chart and raise you another

Zero Hedge: On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices

NODs continue to rise as does unemployment....inventory of 19 million plus empty homes with more inventory being held back as banks can't keep up with foreclosures. Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan is more worried about his legacy than any recovery.

Edit: By the way Homebuilder's index is trending down again if you can't see it...

[vandemusser]

Originally Posted by jstubbspt

I'll call your chart and raise you another

Zero Hedge: On "Rock Bottom" Housing Prices

NODs continue to rise as does unemployment....inventory of 19 million plus empty homes with more inventory being held back as banks can't keep up with foreclosures. Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan is more worried about his legacy than any recovery.

Edit: By the way Homebuilder's index is trending down again if you can't see it...

You aren't seriously quoting / referencing a hyper-conservative blog from a guy named "Tyler Durden", are you? These are your facts?

In case you don't know, Tyler Durden is Brad Pitt's character from the movie "Fight Club". Certainly lends credence to his posts...

[jstubbspt]

Yes, I'm aware it's a blog. Yes I know the author of the blog uses a pseudonym and I have seen fight club. Because the author feels the Obama administration is just as clueless and making decisions just as poorly as the previous administration (which was Republican if you don't recall) does not make it hyper conservative. Both Parties are at fault and doing the wrong thing; the Obama Hope/Change brigade is following the Bush Administration playbook right now. Sorry if that shatters your illusion.

Now that we're done with that care to comment on his CPI vs. Median income data provided?

[jstubbspt]

By the way here's a NPR interview of Elizabeth Warren who is more to you political tastes (horrible interview though by the way since the interviewer demonstrates the understanding of macro economics that many of you do).

NPR: Hear: Elizabeth Warren Checks In

Evaluate arguments; don't reflexively react to your preconceived notions (dare I say prejudices) of an individuals political beliefs. The country will be better off once we get over the Democrat v. Republican "four legs good, two legs bad" understanding of the political process.