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Old 04-03-2015, 12:31 PM
 
62 posts, read 113,768 times
Reputation: 146

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With so much mis-information out there lately, people who don't live or work here saying the "sky is falling" and to "get the hell out now", I thought I would just clarify a few things for folks who are only hearing what's on the nightly news or the internet.
First of all, let me just say there are still places looking for work out here. The traffic has gotten lighter, the cost of renting has dropped some, but there are still plenty of jobs to be had out here. If you want to work you will find employment in the Bakken.
I just checked the local paper to give an idea about the cost of renting a place here - a room with access to a shared kitchen and bathroom will set you back $650 to 800 a month. Studios 1200, 2 beds for 2000 - 2200, 3 bed mobiles for 2700 - 2900/month. If you don't mind living 45 miles out of Williston then expect to pay 1800 for a 3 bed mobile in a park. Now don't get me wrong, if you look hard enough and get lucky, you could find something a little cheaper. There are also more expensive places.
1/2 acre lot in Williston - $90,000. Homes haven't dropped much if any. Manufactured and mobiles are still cheap, but you get what you pay for there. Subdivisions are still moving forward, albeit at a slower pace. Menards and many new retail stores and restaurants are still going in, and they will all need to be staffed.
I've been here just short of 2 years and we are building our own house on 2.25 acres 10 miles outside of Williston. Been renting this whole time and looking forward to owning my own home. I am not the least bit worried about the long term outlook here - there is plenty of oil under our feet here, and zero opportunity back where I grew up, so I'm putting down roots and plan on making a go of it here for the foreseeable future. Hope this helps someone!
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Old 04-03-2015, 07:31 PM
 
979 posts, read 3,488,104 times
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Thanks Dirtsquirter... I don't think anyone could have said or explained it better!
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Old 04-03-2015, 09:15 PM
 
517 posts, read 893,110 times
Reputation: 545
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtsquirter View Post
With so much mis-information out there lately, people who don't live or work here saying the "sky is falling" and to "get the hell out now", I thought I would just clarify a few things for folks who are only hearing what's on the nightly news or the internet.
First of all, let me just say there are still places looking for work out here. The traffic has gotten lighter, the cost of renting has dropped some, but there are still plenty of jobs to be had out here. If you want to work you will find employment in the Bakken.
I just checked the local paper to give an idea about the cost of renting a place here - a room with access to a shared kitchen and bathroom will set you back $650 to 800 a month. Studios 1200, 2 beds for 2000 - 2200, 3 bed mobiles for 2700 - 2900/month. If you don't mind living 45 miles out of Williston then expect to pay 1800 for a 3 bed mobile in a park. Now don't get me wrong, if you look hard enough and get lucky, you could find something a little cheaper. There are also more expensive places.
1/2 acre lot in Williston - $90,000. Homes haven't dropped much if any. Manufactured and mobiles are still cheap, but you get what you pay for there. Subdivisions are still moving forward, albeit at a slower pace. Menards and many new retail stores and restaurants are still going in, and they will all need to be staffed.
I've been here just short of 2 years and we are building our own house on 2.25 acres 10 miles outside of Williston. Been renting this whole time and looking forward to owning my own home. I am not the least bit worried about the long term outlook here - there is plenty of oil under our feet here, and zero opportunity back where I grew up, so I'm putting down roots and plan on making a go of it here for the foreseeable future. Hope this helps someone!
You are probably right. However, in Houston in the late 80's it took about 18 months from announcement from the Saudis that they would protect market share until the bank failures started. In May we will be at the six month mark.

There is less wealth being created from the wells in the Bakken. There will be less money flowing in. If the growth is managed properly, a lot of the slack will be taken up in infrustructure builds, i.e. Sewer systems, roads, water systems, schools, airports, pipelines, railroads, power plants and power grids.

Also, one should expect more refineries, although I would expect them to congregate around Mandan, although we haven't heard much in the last 6 months.
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Old 04-08-2015, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Floribama
17,338 posts, read 35,189,564 times
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I suspect most of the work is in completion, wells that have already been drilled. New drilling is what has slowed, and this will trickle down.
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Old 04-08-2015, 02:30 PM
 
1,861 posts, read 1,621,476 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qazulight View Post
You are probably right. However, in Houston in the late 80's it took about 18 months from announcement from the Saudis that they would protect market share until the bank failures started. In May we will be at the six month mark.

There is less wealth being created from the wells in the Bakken.
Compare Houston and the late 80's with here and now:

(1) Houston is a corporate center not the geographical center of an oil producing region. The bakken extends about 100 miles in every direction from Williston/Watford, but if you drive 200 miles from Houston, you aren't even close to the heart of the drilling areas.

(2) in the 1980's wells sunk might hit oil or they might not. In the Bakken, it's almost 100% guaranteed that you'll hit oil where you drill.

(3) Houston was full of paper deals and structures that tend to collapse once the SHTF.

(4) Bakken is built on blood and sweat and will always have a market to sell into. Even at $20/bbl ( I think we'll see it ... ) it's not like a well is worthless or isn't paying for itself.

Again, if you are looking at a lot of dry holes, you just shut it down. Generally, if there is a dry hole in the bakken, somebody drilled the well wrong and someone better can go back and punch into the shale.

From the Oil&Gas Journal re. Bakken:
Using ranges of undiscovered resources, estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs), and drainage areas,2 USGS estimates that at the mean, about 40,000 wells would be required to recover this resource, with a range from 18,000 to 71,000 wells possible. At the 2012 rate of drilling and, assuming no changes in drilling rates, economics, or other variables, this resource could take 20 or more years to develop and recover. full article here ( You might have to google the article. When I checked this link, it wanted a subscription, but the google link gave me the whole article. )

We always reference "The Saudis" this and "The Saudis" that, but it's really ALL the exporters. Remember that they pump their oil into pipelines that lead to terminals that fill up tankers. When the tankers are full and they stop lining up at the terminals, "The Saudis" can "pump" all they want. They can spill it on the ground for all I care, they can't put any more oil into the market without tankers.

The Bakken producers can put it into refiners who can export the refined product. The refiners can take the Bakken product instead of the imported product. Just the half of US consumption that is imported is more oil than the #3 and #4 importers take on combined ( #1 being China ).

Comparing Houston and Williston is like comparing a watermelon with a banana.
Comparing the 1980's with the 2010's is like comparing the Apple II PC with an Apple iPhone6.
Now, if I could just come up with a comparison between the ability of "The Saudis" to oversupply the market in the 1980s with their INability today, it would be a 3-fer.

Last edited by IDtheftV; 04-08-2015 at 02:41 PM..
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