Friendliness? (Alma, Winter: 2014, to live, shopper)

[cheese plate]

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

NOAA predicted it last year. Cheese. Ya are not going to call them flake now are ya?

IMO farmers almanac predictions are more often than not semi accurate. I believe they are using the NOAA data.

With that said.. I will go with NOAA.

You gotta admit Wunderground is pretty out there too (yes I love them for that) but. .. They are wrong when others are right and vice versa..

You are going to have a nice fall then high snow with temps near normal

Big deal if someone predicted something general last year - it's a coin flip.

I linked to information about how Farmer's Almanac is superstition, and you can feel free to search all kinds of 3rd party studies that show this or you can continue to believe in wive's tales. Every meteorologist will tell you that no forecasts that long-range are truly possible at this point.

[thefragile]

Originally Posted by cheese plate

Total BS - they claim 80% but never verify, and 3rd parties have found forecasts to be around 50% (i.e., even with a coin flip) or much worse. I've never seen a single instance of proven, long-range forecasting that's much better than pure chance. We simply don't know what this winter will be like.

One of many sites discussing the inaccuracy and false claims of the Farmer's Almanac: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Winter forecast, part III: the Old Farmer's Almanac | Weather Underground

Most postitive claims are similar to how "psychics" and "seers" like Nostradamus somehow get followers - keep it general and open to interpretation.

Shrug, ok. I'll stick w/my father, he's been reading Farmer's Almanac since before I was born. And I'll stick with the forecasters, the majority of whom claim it will indeed be a harsh winter again. There's really no need to argue about weather.

[cheese plate]

Originally Posted by thefragile

Shrug, ok. I'll stick w/my father, he's been reading Farmer's Almanac since before I was born. And I'll stick with the forecasters, the majority of whom claim it will indeed be a harsh winter again. There's really no need to argue about weather.

Look, there are no long-range forecasts proven to be accurate - period. By "forecasters," I'm sure you mean "meteorologists," who understand the above. Stick with your father if you'd like, but he's 100% wrong, no matter how old he is.

[thefragile]

Originally Posted by cheese plate

Look, there are no long-range forecasts proven to be accurate - period. By "forecasters," I'm sure you mean "meteorologists," who understand the above. Stick with your father if you'd like, but he's 100% wrong, no matter how old he is.

WTF is your problem? You're arguing about weather. Do you realize how stupid that is? People are saying we're going to have another harsh winter. Big surprise, it's Wisconsin. How you can get so bent out of shape over this is beyond me. I have no interest in butting heads over something as benign as weather. Oh and don't ever say anything about my father again, ok?

[cheese plate]

Originally Posted by thefragile

WTF is your problem? You're arguing about weather. Do you realize how stupid that is? People are saying we're going to have another harsh winter. Big surprise, it's Wisconsin. How you can get so bent out of shape over this is beyond me. I have no interest in butting heads over something as benign as weather. Oh and don't ever say anything about my father again, ok?

I'll say anything I wish about your father or anything else I choose, and there's absolutely zero you can do about it.

Quit pretending the Farmer's Almanac prediction has anything to do with the reality of the coming winter - it doesn't. Scientists have debunked it, and studies show it not an accurate predictor. Why even continue on with this superstition? I have linked to actual facts, yet you continue on-and-on with this without doing the same. Why is that, exactly?

[thefragile]

Originally Posted by cheese plate

I'll say anything I wish about your father or anything else I choose, and there's absolutely zero you can do about it.

Quit pretending the Farmer's Almanac prediction has anything to do with the reality of the coming winter - it doesn't. Scientists have debunked it, and studies show it not an accurate predictor. Why even continue on with this superstition? I have linked to actual facts, yet you continue on-and-on with this without doing the same. Why is that, exactly?

Lol, you've lost it....over weather. Classic.

[TrueTimbers]

Originally Posted by thefragile

Lol, you've lost it....over weather. Classic.

Ya sad and silly.... Argree 100% with you.
I suppose all that cheese can be constipating.. That can make one grumpy. lol....

_--Gezz ----
Long range forcasting is simply predicting a percentage above.or below the mean.

That's what the folks at NOAA do. It is science not superstition.

Most folks enjoy the entertaining way the farmers almanac presents the data.

I will roll with an El Nino. Warmer than average, wetter than average winter.. Break out your snow shovels.

[cheese plate]

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

Ya sad and silly.... Argree 100% with you.
I suppose all that cheese can be constipating.. That can make one grumpy. lol....

_--Gezz ----
Long range forcasting is simply predicting a percentage above.or below the mean.

That's what the folks at NOAA do. It is science not superstition.

Most folks enjoy the entertaining way the farmers almanac presents the data.

I will roll with an El Nino. Warmer than average, wetter than average winter.. Break out your snow shovels.

Great - find any studies that show the success of long-range climate prediction and post the links here. I'll be waiting...forever. It doesn't exist. You are the ones all worked up over this because I challenged your erroneous suppositions. If it's true, back it up with facts.

[TrueTimbers]

Originally Posted by cheese plate

Great - find any studies that show the success of long-range climate prediction and post the links here. I'll be waiting...forever. It doesn't exist. You are the ones all worked up over this because I challenged your erroneous suppositions. If it's true, back it up with facts.

One can find anything they want on the internet..

So you are saying El Nino and La Nina are horse pucky?

They are examples of real measurable events that have a profound impact on long range seasonal forecasts.

Other stuff NOAA looks at too, all tools for long range seasonal forecasting.

Yes?

Or is that science superstition too....?

[ranger17]

to get back on track, showing how friendly Wisconsinites can be, perhaps we can all agree that regardless of where the data comes from, it will be colder this winter then it was this summer.