Wisconsin a swing state? (Milwaukee, Madison: violent crime, home, living in)

[Badger]

Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo

Disagree all you want.
Wisconsin has not been won by a Republican since 1984.
Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore, Kerry.
This miserable record will continue in November.
Period.

if WI isn't in play why has McCain been running ads here for months already?

[Alt Dach]

Overall WI is a conservative area,Green Bay, Fox cities ,MKE burbs are very Republican. Were it not for Madison ,WI would not have gone Democratic since Roosevelt

[escapetacoma]

Originally Posted by Alt Dach

Overall WI is a conservative area,Green Bay, Fox cities ,MKE burbs are very Republican. Were it not for Madison ,WI would not have gone Democratic since Roosevelt

Um, if a city as small as Madison can make that much difference then the rest of the state can't be that firmly in the other camp, so the swing state designator would have to be pretty accurate. A quick check shows that Milwaukee County voted just as strongly Democrat in the last two presidential elections as Dane and to much greater effect (there were more Democrat votes cast in Milwakee County than there were Democrat + Republican in Dane County.) Shoot, wasn't it Milwaukee that elected socialists for mayor?

[Alt Dach]

Dane County has 500.000 pop.Kerry came out of there + 90.000 and
won WI by 8,000. Case Closed .

Of course more Dem votes in Milw Count its 3 times a big,more Rep.
votes too-its the margian that counts.A socialist mayor in the 20's
is of no relevance.

Take out Mad City(Dane Cty) and no Dem pres. cand. would EVER
carry WI-no way,no day.













)

[escapetacoma]

Originally Posted by Alt Dach

Dane County has 500.000 pop.Kerry came out of there + 90.000 and
won WI by 8,000. Case Closed .

?? So the fact that Kerry won Milwaukee County by more than 117,000 votes isn't important, but the fact that he won Dane by 90,000 is? The math doesn't work for me.

Of course more Dem votes in Milw Count its 3 times a big, more Rep. votes too-its the margian that counts.

Agreed, and Milwaukee County had a larger margin of victory for Kerry than Dane - not as a percentage of population, but the vote is won by totals, not percentages.

A socialist mayor in the 20's is of no relevance.

I wasn't thinking of him, I was thinking of Zeidler - who was mayor until 1960. It's one of the things that I've heard tossed around before to show how out of touch Milwaukee was. No personal experience there - it's just one of those things that gets bandied about in other areas of the country.

Take out Mad City(Dane Cty) and no Dem pres. cand. would EVER carry WI-no way,no day.

You'd get the same effect by removing Milwaukee. It's not that I disagree with the thought that Madison is a liberal hotspot - it was widely known as such back in the early 80
's, even on the left coast. It's just that Milwaukee has it's own well documented liberal bias that has at least as much effect on elections. Milwaukee's bias seems stranger to me, an admitted outsider.

Honestly, if you take away the major cities from most states there'd be no contest for the presidency - the more conservative candidate would win. It doesn't really matter because you can't take away the cities and they can make up a large part of the total vote - Milwaukee looks to have been 16% of the entire vote for Wisconsin in 2004.

[Alt Dach]

If the figure you quote are correct of course u r correct.
Article I have says he won MKE by 4700?

[escapetacoma]

Originally Posted by Alt Dach

If the figure you quote are correct of course u r correct.
Article I have says he won MKE by 4700?

Like I said, I'm new here. I'm looking at websites giving vote totals. Our hosts here dont give a total, just a percentage:
Milwaukee County, Wisconsin detailed profile - houses, real estate, agriculture, wages, work, ancestries, and more
the percentage agrees well with another site that gives totals:
Moderator cut: link to a competitors site removed

Yep - I can understand your position, though, given the numbers that you are working with.

[jjacobeclark]

Originally Posted by wanderlusting

Yep, Wisconsin is a swing state but lately it's been swinging toward the blue end. The credit for that can mostly be given to Madison, which is in Dane County. Madison is our NYC as far as canceling out the votes goes.

Madison is only 225,000 out of 5.5 million, how can they make that much difference? I agree with escapetacoma on this one. Milwaukee County has 950,000 people in it and has just as large of a proportion as Madison in terms of Democrats, about a 60/40 ratio to Republicans. Milwaukee is more liberal than most might think and Madison is more conservative than it's reputation would have people believe. The Southeast part of the state is a remnant of the Rust Belt that extends from Milwaukee east to Pittsburgh. It is largely Catholic, blue collar, union, ethnic peoples who generally vote Democrat. It is true the northern and central parts of the state are extremely conservative, I grew up in Appleton I know. But do not discount Eau Claire and La Crosse, both are college towns and their proximity to Minneapolis increases their progressive attitudes as well. Then there are Stevens Point and Oshkosh who also have universities and trend Democratic.

As for the comment someone made about Milwaukee's history of socialist mayors, John Norquist was a socialist and served from 1988 until 2004.

Now on to the swingability of the state I do not forsee WI going to the Republicans. Gov. Doyle supported Obama early on. IMO I think people here can relate better to a Black guy from IL than some old geezer from the desert of AZ.

[wanderlusting]

Originally Posted by jjacobeclark

Madison is only 225,000 out of 5.5 million, how can they make that much difference? I agree with escapetacoma on this one. Milwaukee County has 950,000 people in it and has just as large of a proportion as Madison in terms of Democrats, about a 60/40 ratio to Republicans. Milwaukee is more liberal than most might think and Madison is more conservative than it's reputation would have people believe. The Southeast part of the state is a remnant of the Rust Belt that extends from Milwaukee east to Pittsburgh. It is largely Catholic, blue collar, union, ethnic peoples who generally vote Democrat. It is true the northern and central parts of the state are extremely conservative, I grew up in Appleton I know. But do not discount Eau Claire and La Crosse, both are college towns and their proximity to Minneapolis increases their progressive attitudes as well. Then there are Stevens Point and Oshkosh who also have universities and trend Democratic.

As for the comment someone made about Milwaukee's history of socialist mayors, John Norquist was a socialist and served from 1988 until 2004.

Now on to the swingability of the state I do not forsee WI going to the Republicans. Gov. Doyle supported Obama early on. IMO I think people here can relate better to a Black guy from IL than some old geezer from the desert of AZ.

When did I ever say that WI WOULD go to the Republicans? All I said is that WI is a swing state, which it is. And yes, Madison DID make a difference in the election. Of those 250,000 in Madison, about 80% of them vote liberal. Kerry won the state of WI by 11,000 votes which is a very slim margin. Now, let's do the math. 225000 X .80 = 180000. If you took Madison out of the picture, WI would have went red, with 180000 less votes for Democrats. I never said that Milwaukee County didn't usually vote for Democrats either. It does, but without Madison it wouldn't be enough to win the state for the Democrats.

As far as who I as a Wisconsinite can better relate to, how would you know? I don't like either candidate but I like Obama a lot less so I'm going with the old geezer rather than the inexperienced empty suit.

[jjacobeclark]

Originally Posted by wanderlusting

When did I ever say that WI WOULD go to the Republicans? All I said is that WI is a swing state, which it is. And yes, Madison DID make a difference in the election. Of those 250,000 in Madison, about 80% of them vote liberal. Kerry won the state of WI by 11,000 votes which is a very slim margin. Now, let's do the math. 225000 X .80 = 180000. If you took Madison out of the picture, WI would have went red, with 180000 less votes for Democrats. I never said that Milwaukee County didn't usually vote for Democrats either. It does, but without Madison it wouldn't be enough to win the state for the Democrats.

As far as who I as a Wisconsinite can better relate to, how would you know? I don't like either candidate but I like Obama a lot less so I'm going with the old geezer rather than the inexperienced empty suit.

According to bestplaces.net Milwaukee has 62% of its citizens registered as Democrats versus 66% in Madison. Not 80% like you claim.

I lived in Appleton, WI from 1991 until 2004, I know I agree much more with Obama and his agenda and all of my friends and family there do too.