Why can't it be the year 2000 again?

[slackjaw]

Originally Posted by mistygrl092

Well, it's not my job or in my interest to convince anyone on CD of what is coming down the pike. All I have to do is prepare on my end.

I agree, and I hope we're not coming off too harsh in our skepticism but predicting the US to be "toast" then as evidence telling us to google an economist who is famous for incorrectly predicting the US would be toast before doesn't help your case.

I hope whatever you are doing to prepare works out well for you, and good luck in all things mistygrl092.

[mistygrl092]

Originally Posted by slackjaw

Yup, that is the same guy. You don't have even a niggling of doubt over someone who so famously failed with his Depression 1990 books now making more money selling economic calamity?

He's also know for predicting an doomsday rampant inflation starting in 2000, I think it got above 3% once the ensuing decade.

Nope, I have no doubt. His timing might be off, but he's right about where we're headed.

Like I said - jobs gone, economy needs consumers to spend but consumers can't without jobs, deficits, debt, etc. I think what is going to make the most difference is the lack of jobs and jobs that aren't coming back...we haven't been here before.

[Charles]

Unemployment is bad in some places and not bad in others:

Latest Orange County Unemployment Numbers, sorted by lowest unemployment:


city rate

Foothill Ranch CDP 3.2%

Coto de Caza CDP 4.2%
Las Flores CDP 4.7%

Aliso Viejo CDP 5.1%
Portola Hills CDP 5.3%
Los Alamitos city 5.4%
Villa Park city 5.6%

Rossmoor CDP 6.0%
Newport Beach city 6.1%
Rancho Santa Margarita city 6.2%
Tustin Foothills CDP 6.2%
Yorba Linda city 6.4%
Brea city 6.6%
Lake Forest city 6.7%

Dana Point city 7.0%
Mission Viejo city 7.0%
Laguna Beach city 7.1%
Seal Beach city 7.1%
Irvine city 7.3%
Laguna Niguel city 7.5%
San Clemente city 7.8%
Huntington Beach city 7.9%

Fountain Valley city 8.0%
Laguna Hills city 8.2%
San Juan Capistrano city 8.5%
Costa Mesa city 8.6%
Placentia city 8.6%
Orange city 8.9%

Tustin city 9.5%

Cypress city 10.2%
La Palma city 10.7%
Westminster city 10.7%
Fullerton city 10.8%
La Habra city 10.8%

Buena Park city 12.0%
Garden Grove city 12.0%
Anaheim city 12.3%

Laguna Woods city 13.1%

Santa Ana city 15.1%
Stanton city 15.3%

From

http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oransub.xls


Places in Los Angeles County and Orange County with unemployment less than 8%:

(Data from CDD Februrary 2010)

Vernon city 0.0%
Rolling Hills city 2.1%
Palos Verdes Estates city 2.8%
Rolling Hills Estates city 3.7%
Sierra Madre city 3.8%
Hidden Hills city 4.1%
Rancho Palos Verdes city 4.2%
Malibu city 4.3%
North El Monte CDP 4.3%
Manhattan Beach city 4.4%
La Canada Flintridge city 4.8%
La Habra Heights city 5.1%
Agoura Hills city 5.5%
Hermosa Beach city 5.5%
San Marino city 5.6%
Calabasas city 5.7%
Avalon city 5.9%
Charter Oak CDP 6.0%
Walnut city 6.0%
El Segundo city 6.1%
La Crescenta Montrose CDP 6.1%
South Pasadena city 6.2%
Torrance city 6.2%
Claremont city 6.5%
Glendora city 6.5%
Ladera Heights CDP 6.5%
Redondo Beach city 6.6%
Westlake Village city 6.7%
Cerritos city 6.8%
Del Aire CDP 6.8%
Marina del Rey CDP 6.8%
Mayflower Village CDP 6.8%
Arcadia city 7.1%
La Verne city 7.1%
San Dimas city 7.2%
Bradbury city 7.3%
La Mirada city 7.5%
East San Gabriel CDP 7.6%
Santa Clarita city 7.6%
Foothill Ranch CDP 3.2%
Coto de Caza CDP 4.2%
Las Flores CDP 4.8%
Aliso Viejo CDP 5.2%
Los Alamitos city 5.4%
Portola Hills CDP 5.4%
Villa Park city 5.6%
Rossmoor CDP 6.0%
Newport Beach city 6.1%
Rancho Santa Margarita city 6.2%
Tustin Foothills CDP 6.3%
Yorba Linda city 6.5%
Brea city 6.7%
Lake Forest city 6.8%
Dana Point city 7.1%
Mission Viejo city 7.1%
Laguna Beach city 7.2%
Seal Beach city 7.2%
Irvine city 7.3%
Laguna Niguel city 7.6%
Huntington Beach city 7.9%
San Clemente city 7.9%

[mistygrl092]

Wow, very interesting Charles. Here I've been thinking it's bad all over CA. Thanks for sharing. Even though I don't live there, it's good to know.

[hnsq]

Originally Posted by mistygrl092

I can see you did not take time to read the whole thing. Cherry pick if you like.

No...I DID read the whole thing, and the guy has shown a history of making poor predictions then justifying it and explaining away his bad predictions. Sorry, but I don't have a lot of respect for that.

[detractor]

Originally Posted by hnsq

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

-- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929

Awesome quote, because of the year it was said of course.

[detractor]

Regardless of where you live, if you're uneducated and not always revamping your skill set then you're screwed. If you get an education, always improving your skill set, you'll be fine. The unemployment rate for engineers right now is only around 3% for example.

[nicet4]

Originally Posted by janetvj

And in the early 1980's the U.S. jobless rate was 10.8% (December 1982) and we also had an inflation rate of 13.5% (1980). At that time, I earned less than $10,000 a year and was the sole support for my family of 3 kids under the age of 6 and an unemployed husband (soon to be ex-husband) who had been laid off from a steelworker job.

My point? The economy always cycles up and down. Hang in there. Things will get better.

To show how cyclical it is.

In 2000 labor was tight and we were scraping the bottom of the barrel for people who would at least show up. Cleaning out old business files I run across a letter I wrote in 2002 fighting an employees claim for unemployment insurance.

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/8854/page1zi.jpg

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/989/page2xu.jpg

Did I sound hostile?

This is what happened during the horrible Bush years when unemployment was below 5% and employers were forced to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

In case you are thinking David was a downtrodden worker he was working on prevailing wage projects and for the year he worked before he split. His lowest hourly wage was $24.50/hr and the high was $31.25 and this was 10 years ago.

David also received 100% company paid health insurance, 2 weeks paid vacation, 7 paid holidays, 2 personal days and 3 sick days.

But on the spur of the moment, after getting nailed for drunk driving, he decides to head out to Las Vegas and work there. He found work but got fired, moved back and tried to collect unemployment on my account. His claim was denied, I was an evil employer taking advantage of the poor, downtrodden working class.