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I think it highly depends on what the next great revolution will be. During the Industrial Revolution of the mid to late 1800s, I'm sure you had people asking the same question. Yet, if you look back not that long ago, unemployment rates were at an astounding 4-5%. Something eventually came along and absorbed those workers. Question is, what will be the next big movement.
I think a lot of the jobs we'll end up seeing in the future will deal primarily with health care, R&D, manufacturing (primarily in low COL areas like we're seeing now in the south), executive management, finance/accounting, IT operations, operations management, sales/marketing, procurement, logistics, administration and customer service.
The industrial revolution made possible mass production. This allowed for consumption on a scale never before seen. It allowed the common family to afford items that they could have never afforded in years past. It also spurred mass employment opportunities in the cities that never existed before. No workers were complaining because automation and production repeatability created countless job opportunities. Suddenly, we evolved into less of an agrarian economy and more of an industrial one. Standards of living around the industrialized world improved by the generation, instead of by the century or two.
During those days, improved means of mechanical automation allowed both businesses and the worker to share in the rewards. Today, automation is entirely used as a means to lay claim to the rewards of capitalism, something benefiting only the ownership class. There really is nothing left to move on to. Value added is where the profit margins are the largest. Retail is 3% or so. Facebook is a past time, not something which an economy can be based on. Americans are just going to have to find a way to eek out a niche in a stagnating environment where money doesn't change hands quite like before. This means lower government revenues, lower upward mobility, and more competition for fewer dollars.
During those days, improved means of mechanical automation allowed both businesses and the worker to share in the rewards. Today, automation is entirely used as a means to lay claim to the rewards of capitalism, something benefiting only the ownership class. There really is nothing left to move on to. Value added is where the profit margins are the largest. Retail is 3% or so. Facebook is a past time, not something which an economy can be based on. Americans are just going to have to find a way to eek out a niche in a stagnating environment where money doesn't change hands quite like before. This means lower government revenues, lower upward mobility, and more competition for fewer dollars.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying in this paragraph over all. What do you mean by the bolded?
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying in this paragraph over all. What do you mean by the bolded?
This idea that our economy is supposed to magically evolve into something post industrial. Something that will also absorb the excess labor available today. What is it? Nobody knows. But apparently it is our failure in evolving into this elusive new economic model that is hampering growth.
Trading houses wasn't it. Selling big macs wasn't it. Anyone have any other ideas?
I think there needs to be more focus on apprenticeships. In the US, we are pushing kids into academia whether they are "made" for it or not. Then there is the fact that it's expensive, this is also a disadvantage for the working class.
Apprenticeships are valuable as well. There are plenty of kids who won't do well in college but will do fine in those. The idea here is that you need to have a plan when you graduate from high school. You can always change careers. Having no plan after high school is how you end up working for minimum wage and saying you aren't ready is a poor excuse.
Our standard of living now is far better than it was back then. Furthermore, our economy was very labor-intensive then. It mattered more about your physical ability to do work than it did to use your brain. Any idiot with a strong back and working arms and legs could find work then. Now that we're in the information age, the economy has transitioned more into a knowledge-based economy. That said, there are less people (more machines) lifting rocks and moving them 50 feet or screwing bolts to a drive-train than there are people organizing, reviewing, and analyzing data in order to ensure efficient operations. Your brain is the most important tool you have in today's economy. Companies are willing to pay a premium for someone who can critically think over someone who can lift 80 lbs or use a ratchet. You can be a quadriplegic and still make a great living now. Back then, not so much.
And the reason you see so many people finding it difficult to work is because we're still going through a transition phase. Believe it or not, the people who had the most difficult time during this recession are people who worked manual labor-intensive jobs and never went to college. Believe it or not, college grads still face a much smaller rate of unemployment than those with only a high school diploma. It's tough for everybody right now, however, it's tougher for some than others.
Excellent post. I fully understand the guy nearing 60 having trouble transitioning, as he entered the workforce at a far less brain intensive time, but the folks under 40 have no excuse for an inability to adapt.
I think employers need to stop demanding 2+ years experience for entry level work, or so they say. To you and me we'll need experience, but for the bosses son it's just a matter of showing up.
The world needs people with education, skills, and a good work ethic.
Going to college is a good way to gain the education and skills needed for many high-tech jobs. It's not the only way, and it can't create a work ethic out of nothing, but it is a good path to take. For those who are not interested in this path, trade schools are another good choice.
As for "churning out" graduates, we still need a large number of engineers, doctors, and countless other high-skill roles to keep our society functioning. These aren't the only skills we need, but we can't just say "eh, forget about it" and just stop supporting higher education.
I'm not sure what the original poster is getting at. Many of the jobs that existed in the past that needed degrees still exist today, so we still need people to achieve those degrees. As for the theory that we just don't bother with degrees and let companies work it out on their own, that idea simply won't work. Most companies are already going out of their way to avoid providing the minimum training possible - they expect all job applicants to have 3 to 5 years experience doing exactly what that job requires with the exact tools, etc. They "can't afford" the most basic of training, so they certainly won't take on the role of offering college level education. They'd just ship the jobs elsewhere or bring in more visa workers from nations that still have college programs.
As for more degrees equaling higher level job requirements, there's some of that, yes, but you're also seeing the effects of decades of dismantling all the jobs in the nation that didn't require degrees, hence the higher percentage of jobs that need them. There's been a theory going around that college students are "spoiled" and "have degrees handed to them" and "should have done honest work in a factory like their dad did" and somehow our nation would be better for it. Nobody seems interested facing the fact that the reason they can't follow their father's footsteps and do "honest work" - as if work done with a college degree is dishonest - is because those factories closed years ago and those jobs are gone. So, the students go to college to get a degree that will hopefully provide them a job that doesn't vanish as quickly.
So, yeah... reducing the education in our nation is not the answer, and nobody is going to pick up the slack if colleges suddenly cease to exist or are made unaffordable so everyone else can just "learn on the job" or "work in a factory." The factory jobs are gone, as are the the jobs that providing training or careers.
Hell no! The country is glutted with college graduates, most of them underemployed. I suppose some companies just require a college degree for jobs where years ago a high school education was enough.
This idea that our economy is supposed to magically evolve into something post industrial. Something that will also absorb the excess labor available today. What is it? Nobody knows. But apparently it is our failure in evolving into this elusive new economic model that is hampering growth.
Trading houses wasn't it. Selling big macs wasn't it. Anyone have any other ideas?
I don't know if the goal of everyone on the planet having enough wealth to be comfortable (as Americans understand comfort) is possible under any model. With that said, growth is certainly happening. STEM is plugging along. But, it's unlikely the majority are going to get wealth out of it.
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