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Old 10-29-2014, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
25,534 posts, read 14,642,846 times
Reputation: 9261

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The only problem with machines is that they kill the majority of jobs. Sure you need repair technicians BUT they will create fewer jobs than it will replace. Not saying that Amazon didn't kill brick and mortar stores BUT the answer to the problem is more jobs, not fewer.
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Old 10-29-2014, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
25,534 posts, read 14,642,846 times
Reputation: 9261
Quote:
Originally Posted by stellastar2345 View Post
sorry, you got lost in economics classes? how?
I think it was the way the teacher taught the course and it is a bit of a dry subject when you talk about 101 (Micro) and 201 (Macro.) It's not the math, I can do math in my sleep, it's just the concepts. Sure we can say they are basic but for basics, it is complicated.
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Old 10-29-2014, 11:10 PM
 
Location: Northern NJ
7,455 posts, read 7,423,321 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
The only problem with machines is that they kill the majority of jobs. Sure you need repair technicians BUT they will create fewer jobs than it will replace. Not saying that Amazon didn't kill brick and mortar stores BUT the answer to the problem is more jobs, not fewer.
Incorrect. All jobs are supplanted and disappear. The answer is better jobs requiring less physicality and more intellectuality. Since there is no right to a job, there should also be no expectation of any type of job continuing. All jobs are the creature of a moment and can and should be expected to disappear at any time. The job of the citizen is to maintain a good set of skills to roll with these punches. There is no job security, and there never should be. Americans need to abandon the union mentality of job guarantees and employment security. Whenever you hear the term job security, you are simultaneously hearing the term tyranny. One goes with the other.
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Old 10-29-2014, 11:34 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 48,616,283 times
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I don't think College Graduates are entitled to high paying jobs but after all the studying and paper writing along with presentations you definitely should not be making minimum wage
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Old 10-29-2014, 11:41 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
25,534 posts, read 14,642,846 times
Reputation: 9261
Spoiler
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post
Incorrect. All jobs are supplanted and disappear. The answer is better jobs requiring less physicality and more intellectuality. Since there is no right to a job, there should also be no expectation of any type of job continuing. All jobs are the creature of a moment and can and should be expected to disappear at any time. The job of the citizen is to maintain a good set of skills to roll with these punches. There is no job security, and there never should be. Americans need to abandon the union mentality of job guarantees and employment security. Whenever you hear the term job security, you are simultaneously hearing the term tyranny. One goes with the other.

By this logic we will be back to serfdom in no time or communist because machines would replace most jobs with only a few knowledge jobs that wont last too long with no customers paying their wages. No amount of good skills or knowledge will be safe if they can be replaced by machines with AI. What would you rather pay, $60K to replace workers ONCE or pay 6 workers $15K a year each yearly? If a job can be replaced my machines any CEO who worries about this quarter's performance will do that. That is unless one realizes without employees creating business elsewhere, one won't have a business for much longer.
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Old 10-30-2014, 12:12 AM
 
Location: Northern NJ
7,455 posts, read 7,423,321 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
Spoiler


By this logic we will be back to serfdom in no time or communist because machines would replace most jobs with only a few knowledge jobs that wont last too long with no customers paying their wages. No amount of good skills or knowledge will be safe if they can be replaced by machines with AI. What would you rather pay, $60K to replace workers ONCE or pay 6 workers $15K a year each yearly? If a job can be replaced my machines any CEO who worries about this quarter's performance will do that. That is unless one realizes without employees creating business elsewhere, one won't have a business for much longer.
If there is no right to a job, then your remaining arguments and observations are superfluous. If you contend that there is a right to a job, then you are advocating tyranny.

In any case, automation has existed since the invention of the wheel and the discovery of fire. And yet here we are. And so, we will continue to expand and grow and there will ALWAYS be new jobs, just like there have always been, and just like there are now. Billions of them. There will always be plenty of jobs in a free society, but the jobs will change dynamically with new needs and new products and new services. Automation is the BEST THING IN THE WORLD for employment, as it makes everything cheaper and allows unskilled citizens the opportunity to learn new skills and have better and more pleasant jobs.

Machines replacing workers is GOOD for the workers, good for the country, good for the future, and in any case is inevitable, unavoidable, expected, and logical.

So embrace it or die in a whine-pile. Teach yourself how to program the new machines, fix the new machines, improve the new machines, replace the new machines, sell the new machines, insure the new machines, finance the new machines, spray paint the new machines, add functions to the new machines, lubricate the new machines, clean the new machines, add features to the new machines, add improvements to the new machines, power the new machines, invent newer machines that are better than the old new machines, and invent new products and services that require the invention of more new machines.

Are you understanding this freedom thingy?
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:23 AM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
25,534 posts, read 14,642,846 times
Reputation: 9261
Spoiler
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post
If there is no right to a job, then your remaining arguments and observations are superfluous. If you contend that there is a right to a job, then you are advocating tyranny.

In any case, automation has existed since the invention of the wheel and the discovery of fire. And yet here we are. And so, we will continue to expand and grow and there will ALWAYS be new jobs, just like there have always been, and just like there are now. Billions of them. There will always be plenty of jobs in a free society, but the jobs will change dynamically with new needs and new products and new services. Automation is the BEST THING IN THE WORLD for employment, as it makes everything cheaper and allows unskilled citizens the opportunity to learn new skills and have better and more pleasant jobs.

Machines replacing workers is GOOD for the workers, good for the country, good for the future, and in any case is inevitable, unavoidable, expected, and logical.

So embrace it or die in a whine-pile. Teach yourself how to program the new machines, fix the new machines, improve the new machines, replace the new machines, sell the new machines, insure the new machines, finance the new machines, spray paint the new machines, add functions to the new machines, lubricate the new machines, clean the new machines, add features to the new machines, add improvements to the new machines, power the new machines, invent newer machines that are better than the old new machines, and invent new products and services that require the invention of more new machines.

Are you understanding this freedom thingy?
What you speak of isn't freedom at all, it is encouraging tyranny, unless it is some weird logic like Loki's freedom from freedom (because freedom is humanity's biggest lie) in The Avengers movie. Let's break this down piece by piece:

First: There is a right to work because if one don't how does one survive besides charity, hunting and gathering? Unless one uses a knife to hunt or a fishing pole to fish, they won't last too long. The fact is just about everyone needs a job or some sort of other income (legal or illegal) to get a roof over their head or food. Unless there is social safety nets in place (which some want to remove and is flooded so they cannot serve everyone,) one truly needs a job to stay alive.

Second: Automation didn't get created with the wheel and discovery of fire. The first instance of automation was in the 1700s when Edmund Lee created a patent for the sail of a windmill. From there it was the industrial revolution that really started things for automation. However it was the technology boom from World War 2 that started the modern era of automation that now is into AI if you look at robots like Pepper.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCFYw8mIqcc
I will state later on why AI can be a problem.

Third: There may "ALWAYS be new jobs" but the issue is the amount. Billions of jobs may exist right now like they always have but that's not always true. You speak of new products but they typically replace another in some form. A cell phone replaces a landline phone for many people, an gas powered lawn mower replaces the old manual ones, the disposable multiple razor replaces the DE razor (except for a growing niche market) etc. Those old products are removed from the market place (albeit slowly sometimes.) Services are much more fluid based on the needs of the market.
The amount of jobs are to fulfill the need. If you don't need as many workers because machines can replace them, they are lost and so is their wages to other companies they buy products or services from. This causes a negative feedback loop because fewer people are working so there are fewer people in the economy. Prior to the recent (somewhat inflated) stock market the Dow was at a record 11,497.12 to close out 1999 (the year before the dot.com bubble burst (which some like the writer of this New York Times article think the current market is now.)) Remember the recession from the Dot.com bubble was called a jobless recovery by some.

Fourth: Automation does make things cheaper but at the expense of labor. Costs are lower but fewer people can afford products or services if they don't have money. The economy runs on income coming in whether is a person or a business and (some of) the income going out. The economy isn't run by a few hoarding money while the rest are serfs.

Fifth: As I mentioned before AI can be an issue for workers because once machines become self aware. When a machine with AI realizes they need fixing AND can re work it themselves, you won't need the skilled repairs jobs. When machines can self program due to AI, you won't need programmers. When machines can create more machines, you wont need manufacturers. Machines already paint other machines (cars can get painted by machines and the video is below) withOUT AI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJcXjz9Awy4
The pepper robot I alluded to has been thought it could sell items as a sales robot (source: Engadget,) plus if you look at e-business or self-serve kiosk, a machine sells you the items you buy. Sure you'll need financers and insurers but it wont be enough jobs which is the main problem. Are you starting to get the picture, Moore's Law will kick in with robots and their AI will be able to do things we've only seen and thought was possible in science fiction.
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:44 AM
 
Location: Oceania
8,623 posts, read 5,940,878 times
Reputation: 8318
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
What you speak of isn't freedom at all, it is encouraging tyranny, unless it is some weird logic like Loki's freedom from freedom (because freedom is humanity's biggest lie) in The Avengers movie. Let's break this down piece by piece:

First: There is a right to work because if one don't how does one survive besides charity, hunting and gathering? Unless one uses a knife to hunt or a fishing pole to fish, they won't last too long. The fact is just about everyone needs a job or some sort of other income (legal or illegal) to get a roof over their head or food. Unless there is social safety nets in place (which some want to remove and is flooded so they cannot serve everyone,) one truly needs a job to stay alive.

Second: Automation didn't get created with the wheel and discovery of fire. The first instance of automation was in the 1700s when Edmund Lee created a patent for the sail of a windmill. From there it was the industrial revolution that really started things for automation. However it was the technology boom from World War 2 that started the modern era of automation that now is into AI if you look at robots like Pepper.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCFYw8mIqcc
I will state later on why AI can be a problem.

Third: There may "ALWAYS be new jobs" but the issue is the amount. Billions of jobs may exist right now like they always have but that's not always true. You speak of new products but they typically replace another in some form. A cell phone replaces a landline phone for many people, an gas powered lawn mower replaces the old manual ones, the disposable multiple razor replaces the DE razor (except for a growing niche market) etc. Those old products are removed from the market place (albeit slowly sometimes.) Services are much more fluid based on the needs of the market.
The amount of jobs are to fulfill the need. If you don't need as many workers because machines can replace them, they are lost and so is their wages to other companies they buy products or services from. This causes a negative feedback loop because fewer people are working so there are fewer people in the economy. Prior to the recent (somewhat inflated) stock market the Dow was at a record 11,497.12 to close out 1999 (the year before the dot.com bubble burst (which some like the writer of this New York Times article think the current market is now.)) Remember the recession from the Dot.com bubble was called a jobless recovery by some.

Fourth: Automation does make things cheaper but at the expense of labor. Costs are lower but fewer people can afford products or services if they don't have money. The economy runs on income coming in whether is a person or a business and (some of) the income going out. The economy isn't run by a few hoarding money while the rest are serfs.

Fifth: As I mentioned before AI can be an issue for workers because once machines become self aware. When a machine with AI realizes they need fixing AND can re work it themselves, you won't need the skilled repairs jobs. When machines can self program due to AI, you won't need programmers. When machines can create more machines, you wont need manufacturers. Machines already paint other machines (cars can get painted by machines and the video is below) withOUT AI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJcXjz9Awy4
The pepper robot I alluded to has been thought it could sell items as a sales robot (source: Engadget,) plus if you look at e-business or self-serve kiosk, a machine sells you the items you buy. Sure you'll need financers and insurers but it wont be enough jobs which is the main problem. Are you starting to get the picture, Moore's Law will kick in with robots and their AI will be able to do things we've only seen and thought was possible in science fiction.


Unless you are 10 years old, you will never see true AI unless you consider a dog to be the model. The human mind can't be replicated as it is capable of too much. Double digit IQ folks need not apply.

If AI were possible "The Six Million Dollar Man" would be reality first.
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Old 10-30-2014, 11:18 AM
 
3,951 posts, read 3,879,880 times
Reputation: 2199
"First: There is a right to work because if one don't how does one survive besides charity, hunting and gathering? Unless one uses a knife to hunt or a fishing pole to fish, they won't last too long. The fact is just about everyone needs a job or some sort of other income (legal or illegal) to get a roof over their head or food. Unless there is social safety nets in place (which some want to remove and is flooded so they cannot serve everyone,) one truly needs a job to stay alive."

A right is something that cannot be denied. You have a right to move freely but it doesn't mean you can drive without a license, drive in the wrong direction or drive across public parks etc. You have a license to drive and the terms and conditions of such. To suggest a right to work would ignore everything else. If someone is a high school drop out with credit problems, on a sex offender list and was fired from multiple jobs how can that person have a right to work

"However it was the technology boom from World War 2 that started the modern era of automation that now is into AI if you look at robots like Pepper."

I actually went to China with a guy that works for the company that makes Pepper. I knew about it a bit beforehand.

"If you don't need as many workers because machines can replace them, they are lost and so is their wages to other companies they buy products or services from. This causes a negative feedback loop because fewer people are working so there are fewer people in the economy."

I respect your opinion but that is not really true. Simply making work slower to employ people will not help the economy. Could we make more jobs by getting rid of washing machines, going back to horse drawn carriages, iceboxes etc. Sure but who would want that. It doesn't mean fewer people are working it simply means they go onto something else. People laid off from AMC motors could probably find work at GM or Ford etc. Every business has competitors and industry trends usually take awhile but are a given. Sears does not realistically sell much anymore by catalog. Why? Because it is easier to use a phone or the internet. Social security is a direct deposit so that means less mail but that demand can be offset by carrying packages for UPS and FedEx.


"Automation does make things cheaper but at the expense of labor. Costs are lower but fewer people can afford products or services if they don't have money."

But at the same point a handmade car would easily cost several times. The median car price is 25,000. You can't raise it to 75k and expect the same number to be sold. Prices generally go down on goods because eventually they expire. It might be by physical age, technological progress (anyone want a Palm TX?..seriously I have one) and constant competition. Clothing prices have been stable over the past 25 or so years, electronics drop, food, education healthcare generally are the ones that go up. Actual physical usable products not as much

What specifically do you buy outside of food and energy that adults consume as a physical product on a constant basis? Yes there's some consumables but the fact of the matter is frankly you generally spend less on new things when you get older. also how much sold is actually used these days. I'm typing this on a 2010 year laptop. I bought it six months ago and the price dropped 90%! It's high end so the specs are on par with what you can have today but the build quality is better.
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Old 10-31-2014, 02:42 PM
 
366 posts, read 349,436 times
Reputation: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post
Incorrect. All jobs are supplanted and disappear. The answer is better jobs requiring less physicality and more intellectuality. Since there is no right to a job, there should also be no expectation of any type of job continuing. All jobs are the creature of a moment and can and should be expected to disappear at any time. The job of the citizen is to maintain a good set of skills to roll with these punches. There is no job security, and there never should be. Americans need to abandon the union mentality of job guarantees and employment security. Whenever you hear the term job security, you are simultaneously hearing the term tyranny. One goes with the other.
I wouldn't mind some Tyranny for 40 years of secure labor with good pay and amazing benefits. I would be able to save money and become rich enough to join the "Tyranny" class.
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