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Old 12-26-2016, 01:55 PM
 
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Among developed countries, those countries with a higher degree of automation have mostly a higher employment level in manufacturing.

Ratio of employment in manufacturing to population:

Germany: 8.9%
Italy: 6.0%
France: 4.5%
UK: 3.9%

The ranking is identical to the level of automation in manufacturing. Germany has about 10 times more industrial robots than the UK. Italy has about 3 times more industrial robots than France and about 5 times more than the UK. As a result of the unproductive British manufacturing sector, the wages in manufacturing in the UK are the lowest among richer European countries.

Switzerland has by far the highest wages in manufacturing, but the employment in manufacturing to population ratio is with 8.1% among the highest.

The level of automation in U.S. manufacturing is quite low, as a result the employment level in manufacturing is relatively low.
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Old 12-26-2016, 03:20 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lukas1973 View Post
Among developed countries, those countries with a higher degree of automation have mostly a higher employment level in manufacturing.
That is because the only way a *developed* country can pay decent manufacturing wages is if the manufacturing is automated.
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Old 12-26-2016, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvert Hall '62 View Post
In undergrad Effective Speaking class, my subject was "Is Automation Causing Unemployment?"
After weighing the Pros and Cons, my conclusion was that automation enhances the economy.
By the way, the year was 1963.
Automation undoubtedly enhances the economy.

It also destroys jobs while doing it.

This wasn't a problem for most of the industrial age because the higher productivity and wealth generated by automation was shared by consumers. They increased demand for goods and services which created new and better paying jobs.

Consumer income increases pretty much ended in the late 70s though, and was replaced with easy credit and escalating debt. That began to have issues ~2000, and the **** really hit the fan in 2008. Really median incomes have now risen to about the same level as in 2000 after bottoming in 2010. We'll see if they keep going up.

Employment won't really be affected until automation gets so sophisticated that people have no competitive advantages at the minimum wage level compared to automation. Until then we will just have depressed wages.
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Old 12-26-2016, 05:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
That is because the only way a *developed* country can pay decent manufacturing wages is if the manufacturing is automated.

Yes, but the interesting insight is that developed countries with a higher degree of automation have a higher share of employees in manufacturing, compared to developed countries with a lower level of automation. One should think that countries with a higher degree of automation have less employees in manufacturing.

State-of-the-art machine tools are a key technology for a thriving manufacturing sector.

Per-capita consumption of machine tools in USD in 2015:

1. Switzerland: 126.6
2. Germany: 78.6
3. South Korea: 75.9
4. Slovenia: 75.3
5. Austria: 75.0
6. Singapore: 70.6
7. Taiwan: 66.8
8. Czechia: 53.2
9. Slovakia: 51.5
10. Italy: 51.2
11. Japan: 45.7
...
15. USA: 23.1
...
34. UK: 14.7
35. France: 14.5

The manufacturing sector in the U.S. could be much larger and could employ much more employees if the companies would invest more into automation and new machines. But instead they are using profits for share buybacks


Production of machine tools in million USD in 2015:

1. China: 22,100
2. Japan: 13,490
3. Germany: 12,422
4. Italy: 5,306
5. South Korea: 4,758
6. USA: 4,600
7. Taiwan: 4,030
8. Switzerland: 3,053
9. Spain: 1,003
10. Austria: 938
11. UK: 825
12. Turkey: 706
13. India: 691
14. France: 645
15. Czechia: 642

Considering the size of the U.S. (4 times Germany, 5 times Italy) that is quite pathetic. Tiny Switzerland produces double the amount of machine tools than the UK and France combined

Import duties are not expedient to strenghten the U.S. manufacturing sector. Investments into equipment and training the workforce are the answer.

http://www.gardnerweb.com/cdn/cms/20...S%20Report.pdf
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Old 12-26-2016, 06:52 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lukas1973 View Post
Yes, but the interesting insight is that developed countries with a higher degree of automation have a higher share of employees in manufacturing, compared to developed countries with a lower level of automation. One should think that countries with a higher degree of automation have less employees in manufacturing.
I would expect the opposite, and what actually occurs. I would think that the rich countries with the most high tech manufacturing would employ the most people in manufacturing. Low tech manufacturing doesn't exist in developed countries, rather they import labor intensive manufactured goods. Many import all almost *all* manufactured goods.

1) All developed countries have a low % involved in manufacturing (earlier you showed 3.9-8.9%).
2) Wages are high in developed countries, so the only viable manufacturing in developed countries is high tech (automated).
3) Developed countries with a high level of manufacturing, have net exports of the product.
4) Developed countries with a low level of manufacturing have net imports of the product.

Quote:
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. could be much larger and could employ much more employees if the companies would invest more into automation and new machines. But instead they are using profits for share buybacks
For the last 40 years US policy has been to provide great incentives to offshore manufacturing and promote trade deficits. It has depressed wages a lot, but has allowed companies to make huge profits.
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Old 12-26-2016, 08:55 PM
 
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At least we can all agree that robots are superior.

Mall Suspends Security Robot After It Clobbered a Toddler
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Old 12-26-2016, 09:10 PM
 
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People really have no idea how frightening AI is and how far advanced it has become. You do realize we're talking about automation *that can repair itself* that could potentially *learn* to improve, fix itself, and program itself right? We're talking about machines and automation made out of materials that may actually never break, since we're now developing materials that can literally 'heal themselves':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr_Lngw4aBk

The old adage that automation will simply require the work force to 're-tool' and that there will still be jobs available to fix the machines may never come to fruition. And it won't simply be just jobs for people with lower education levels that will be replaced either. Physicians, pharmacists, lawyers will all be losing jobs in the future with things like robotic surgery, automated prescription filling with 99.99% accuracy, machine learning for legal documentation preparation taking the place of a TON of upper middle class jobs.
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Old 12-26-2016, 09:28 PM
 
687 posts, read 614,791 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Automation undoubtedly enhances the economy.

It also destroys jobs while doing it.

This wasn't a problem for most of the industrial age because the higher productivity and wealth generated by automation was shared by consumers. They increased demand for goods and services which created new and better paying jobs.

Consumer income increases pretty much ended in the late 70s though, and was replaced with easy credit and escalating debt. That began to have issues ~2000, and the **** really hit the fan in 2008. Really median incomes have now risen to about the same level as in 2000 after bottoming in 2010. We'll see if they keep going up.

Employment won't really be affected until automation gets so sophisticated that people have no competitive advantages at the minimum wage level compared to automation. Until then we will just have depressed wages.
Yet there is still the expectation of increasing demand for goods and services to foster new and better paying jobs. It was really a hallmark of a debt economy when a news cast in 2008 was lamenting about how people were saving money and not borrowing for consumer goods to bolster the stock market through the holiday season. The economist's advice was to pull out that credit card.

The assumption that makes little sense is that automation reduces costs. It may increase speed of production, but the resources, development, building, distributing, licensing, maintenance, upgrades, handling of waste, and training of personnel adds up more of an investment than is ever admitted. It is why so many advances in automation are supported by government funding. The private sector would never get these projects off the ground, otherwise, or it takes them decades or more to do so.

It is out of hubris, not efficiency of cost. The efficient solution to labor is to let a man eat his porridge and work using his own body, even if it is not the most comfortable solution.

Last edited by Basilide; 12-26-2016 at 09:39 PM..
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Old 12-27-2016, 05:08 PM
 
902 posts, read 745,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fibonacci View Post
People really have no idea how frightening AI is and how far advanced it has become. You do realize we're talking about automation *that can repair itself* that could potentially *learn* to improve, fix itself, and program itself right? We're talking about machines and automation made out of materials that may actually never break, since we're now developing materials that can literally 'heal themselves':


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr_Lngw4aBk

The old adage that automation will simply require the work force to 're-tool' and that there will still be jobs available to fix the machines may never come to fruition. And it won't simply be just jobs for people with lower education levels that will be replaced either. Physicians, pharmacists, lawyers will all be losing jobs in the future with things like robotic surgery, automated prescription filling with 99.99% accuracy, machine learning for legal documentation preparation taking the place of a TON of upper middle class jobs.
Then who is going to buy stuff?..............why does no one answer this question?
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Old 12-27-2016, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,570,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rocky1975 View Post
Then who is going to buy stuff?..............why does no one answer this question?
I answer that question all the time. If you are bored, check out this thread: Robotics will change everything

The consumer-capitalist model of companies making profit via mass production and sales to a prosperous middle class is being phased out. The wealthy will be able to make whatever they want directly. There will still be sales and trade among this select group, but most of the population will cease to be economically relevant.
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