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I think auto sales peak before the economy starts to drop.
For example, in my family, we've bought 3 new cars since 2012. They replaced cars at were on average, 17 years old. I kept those old cars running because we were struggling.
Now the new cars run fine. They are all payed off. No debt is a good feeling. We've not had one problem. So part of it is that new cars are better than they have ever been. Maybe 30 years ago, I'd be thinking of trading my 2012 model. But not now. Why trade a perfect car?
I think a lot of people are in a similar situation. Also, most people finance cars and the terms are now unusually long, e.g. 72 to 84 months. People in debt prefer to not dig deeper by buying another car.
The real issue, IMO, is not the length of loans but rather the rising auto loan default rate, the highest since just before the recession:
People with highly sought after, specialized skills are not in a recession.
The people who do feel a recession (despite what Wall Street types are telling them) are unskilled blue collar workers and service employees, whose wages have stagnated and lost ground in real terms for several decades, especially since around 2000.
There may be some others who are skilled that are in industries that feel like they are experiencing a recession, but the people in the lower half (and especially the lower quartile or third) of the wage spectrum are the ones who have felt the brunt of economic hardship.
Wish I could double-rep this: concise, and sums up what Business Insider, Wall Street Journal, and the Economist have been going on about past five years or so during our "recovery": it's all changed, man. The news is getting out, finally, and some are none too pleased. Others, thrilled. And that's trouble brewing.
So those with those specialized skills, also including me: we are like fat burghers of yore, seeing riches flowing into our coffers for our services, it is truly bonanza times. I am involved with candidate recruiting for high-end tech roles, and though there is a good pool out there, it isn't a great pool: talent is being scooped up, for serious coin, by the majors and smaller consultancies and start-up up the yin yang.
Seattle is "I think" disturbingly bi-modal in the average household income these days. The poor bastards trying to hold it together, and raise a family and buy a home, on two people making $15/hour: pretty much can NOT be done, they live in some god awful commute place like Maple Valley or Auburn and are exhausted all day, while really saving little for the future.
Us techies who are (very) deep in hot tech get great jobs, though the work is volatile and you need to know when to switch companies w/o much hesitation. Do that, and thrive, you can afford the outrageious, median $650K or so home price in Seattle proper, or $1.06M in my neighborhood(!) which is up 19.4%(!!) in the past *year*. See what's going on here, how fierce it is for places where people want to live?
I am in the auto industry......working for new car dealerships for the last 31 years. I work for a very large auto group that carries many different brands.I have seen dealers busy as all hell and also slow up......Been through a recession around 91 and of course 2008. The car line I work for is very popular and the dealer I work for is among the top in the region. Around October 2016 the business started slowing up......bot just in our own stores but other dealers too. This summer which is normally very busy has been very dead.......It's not just dealers......Its auto repair shops.....body shops.....auto parts stores....other car dealers we are friends with say it is really slow too.......People are not buying cars or parts like they used to. Yet, the stock market seems strong. I have not seen it this bad or slow since 2008.
So is anyone else feeling anything like this in your particular line of work?
Absolutely not. No recession. The main thing to look for, to know we have a recession, is increasing unemployment (not the normal up and down ticks, but noticeable and increasing unemployment).
I read that both GM & Ford are going through some issues, so I think the auto industry may be having its own issues. Sometimes particular sectors of the economy go through trouble that other sectors do not. Also, the auto business is cyclical in nature.
Also, probably a lot of people made their big purchases last year, when rates were still really low, before they started going up. We knew that rates would start going up this year.
Depends on where you live. If you're in a small town or a rural place it can feel that way. But if you're in a major metro like NYC or San Fran things are booming at a rate never seen before.
That's true. The auto companies and their financing partners are dipping into the shallow end of the pool and will now finance anybody with a pulse.
It won't end well.
If you recall the last housing boom mania in about 2006 with the "liar loans" and the interest only loans with the "deferred interest" adding to the principle each month, that was the sign of the impending bust.
Fortunately, car loans are a much smaller portion of the economy than housing loans.
Do you think its a function of GM's model year cycle/sales? Or is it across other brands you notice it?
Most brands are having issues.....btw.....I am not with GM......I know my name shows that but I switched from GM to a high end popular brand 9 years ago.
People with highly sought after, specialized skills are not in a recession.
The people who do feel a recession (despite what Wall Street types are telling them) are unskilled blue collar workers and service employees, whose wages have stagnated and lost ground in real terms for several decades, especially since around 2000.
There may be some others who are skilled that are in industries that feel like they are experiencing a recession, but the people in the lower half (and especially the lower quartile or third) of the wage spectrum are the ones who have felt the brunt of economic hardship.
Actually not true in many areas at this time- here in Seattle even those you mentioned (unskilled, low wage) are having their choice of jobs- places cannot find enough people to fill even those types of jobs so they have to keep raising the pay to try to entice people. Things are booming from top to bottom!
I don't think we have left it in 10 years. All the "everything is rosy" comes from the corrupted politicians trying to get re-elected and equally corrupted bought off news networks with their politically driven agendas.
It's easy to fudge numbers, pay people off and blow hot air. That's what crooked corporate execs and politicians do all day
If there is one thing I have learned over 10 years, hardly anyone in positions of power or money controllers tell the truth anymore
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