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Old 06-03-2019, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
2,277 posts, read 1,153,510 times
Reputation: 5379

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Most people simply cannot spend their career preparing to jump ship, and magically retrain to a completely different field in their 40s. Your insistence that everyone should be prepared to do that is no doubt well-intended, but effectively complete nonsense.
This idea that just because someone exists and has chosen a particular path in life, they must be entitled to keep doing the same thing for a "fair living wage" is hogwash. Progress happens, and those who don't get with the program get left behind. "Unfair" has nothing to do with it... it's called reality. Just as throughout human history, billions upon billions of people have been murdered, starved to death, got some horrible disease, carted off into slavery, etc. when they didn't do anything wrong... stuff happens, and it's up to you to foresee what's coming down the pike and how to prepare or get out of the way. The world isn't going to stop because you have suffered some injustice.

Every form of progress has been protested by people who don't want to change. And every time, people have either changed anyway, or been left behind. And, every time, we all (collectively) wind up better off than we were before. I cannot ensure that everyone succeeds... I can only do the best I can to ensure that I and mine will succeed.

The whole point to having an education is to have a base you can use to translate an older skill into a newer skill. The days of "My daddy was a mechanic, his daddy was a mechanic, his daddy before him was a mechanic, therefore I'm going to be a mechanic too and my son is going to follow in my footsteps" are over.
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Old 06-03-2019, 10:34 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
2,277 posts, read 1,153,510 times
Reputation: 5379
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Automotive assembly automation. The workforce that builds and maintains this equipment is probably 1/10 or less the size of the workforce it eliminated.
You're really going to try to argue that automotive assembly automation has left us worse off? Really?

Where are you going to start your argument? The assembly line?

Automation has made more and more cars more and more affordable to more and more people. 50 years ago, a car cost a year's salary. Today, you can buy a car with a year's minimum wage salary. And what you get for your money is orders of magnitude better... safer, more features, more fuel-efficient, longer-lasting, the list goes on. Today, nobody doesn't have a car. Back in the good ol' days, what percentage of the population had one?
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Old 06-03-2019, 10:39 AM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,586 posts, read 3,019,935 times
Reputation: 12813
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnojr View Post
You're really going to try to argue that automotive assembly automation has left us worse off?
Had nothing to do with my point, nor your question. You asked about automation that reduced workforces, net. I gave you two examples of perhaps fifty I could list if I had inclination.

Morphing the argument from the specific question of workforce and job loss to "well, it's been good for everyone else" (everyone not in the affected industry, that is.. this time) is somewhere between disingenuous and extremely sloppy.

Consider an... oh, 35% national unemployment rate and get back to me on how good life will be except for a shrinking number of well-employed.
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Old 06-03-2019, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Between West Chester and Chester, PA
2,597 posts, read 2,300,842 times
Reputation: 4429
The apocalypse won't be against zombies and wussy Antifa members. It'll be against the terminators.
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Old 06-03-2019, 11:32 AM
 
1,859 posts, read 714,806 times
Reputation: 3975
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnojr View Post
This idea that just because someone exists and has chosen a particular path in life, they must be entitled to keep doing the same thing for a "fair living wage" is hogwash. Progress happens, and those who don't get with the program get left behind. "Unfair" has nothing to do with it... it's called reality. Just as throughout human history, billions upon billions of people have been murdered, starved to death, got some horrible disease, carted off into slavery, etc. when they didn't do anything wrong... stuff happens, and it's up to you to foresee what's coming down the pike and how to prepare or get out of the way. The world isn't going to stop because you have suffered some injustice.

Every form of progress has been protested by people who don't want to change. And every time, people have either changed anyway, or been left behind. And, every time, we all (collectively) wind up better off than we were before. I cannot ensure that everyone succeeds... I can only do the best I can to ensure that I and mine will succeed.

The whole point to having an education is to have a base you can use to translate an older skill into a newer skill. The days of "My daddy was a mechanic, his daddy was a mechanic, his daddy before him was a mechanic, therefore I'm going to be a mechanic too and my son is going to follow in my footsteps" are over.
To keep up with change, it is indeed prudent to look out for those anticipated changes and see what is coming down the pike. And what is coming down the pike is that human labor simply won't be needed due to the progress of automation. People won't be able to compete for jobs against computers, robots, and other machines. That is the change and that is what people should be preparing for. Essentially getting out of the way of this progress since reeducating or retooling for another job or career won't help since human labor simply won't be needed. People can protest against this, but it is coming. No one will be able to translate an older skill into a newer skill, because both the older and newer skills will be automated. No people will be wanted in any jobs since the AI systems will be able to do all jobs faster, better, and cheaper than people. Progress marches on.
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Old 06-03-2019, 12:29 PM
 
4,543 posts, read 4,726,731 times
Reputation: 3590
It's a good thing I'm on the side creating the AL/ML/DL algorithms then. I at least have to create an algorithm that can do my job before the machine takes me out although there is definitely autoML already like tpot: https://github.com/EpistasisLab/tpot
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Old 06-03-2019, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,586 posts, read 3,019,935 times
Reputation: 12813
Quote:
Originally Posted by BusinessManIT View Post
To keep up with change, it is indeed prudent to look out for those anticipated changes and see what is coming down the pike.
As a general rule (although this isn't quite what you're addressing) I am completely in favor of workers staying up to date and furthering their education in their field. I've never said (or at least meant) anything else.

But the idea that being the sharpest tack in the box is insurance, on the day thumbtacks aren't used any more, is... ignoring reality. And any idea that you should study a completely different career while working at another is... an exhausting gamble. And the idea that when you hit the bricks as one thing, you can easily retrain as something new and in demand is... beyond naive.
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Old 06-03-2019, 12:55 PM
 
Location: San Ramon, Seattle, Anchorage, Reykjavik
2,241 posts, read 985,070 times
Reputation: 3110
Define 'tech job'. Many traditional IT operations roles, distributed at the private data center level, have already been replaced by cloud providers, virtualization, infrastructure as code and further automation, automated provisioning, etc. Much core programming, especially at the level performed by many companies with internal development shops, has been replaced at some level by big ERP, off the shelf tools and packages, automated testing, micro services, etc. Much of the typical support and help desk work has been replaced by self service, dev ops and automation. Simple IT business office work such as training, IT procurement, and contract management is also going away with the 'pay as you go' cloud capacity and services. So, lots of factor driving change in the IT space. What hasn't changed, and will be a prime place for humans as opposed to the always discussed but as yet not realized highly intelligent AI? Project Management, especially Agile. Creative design work. Data science and analytics, especially development of algorithms. Consulting. Cost optimization. IT Audit. Information Security. Many cloud-focused roles that are not purely repetitive. Game development. Relationship management between customers and IT. Usability design and testing.

Bottom line? I'd think that much of the boring, relatively low skill or commodity, repetitive work will go away and the creative or intellectually challenging work will remain.

In other words, the same kinds of changes that have been ongoing in IT since the late 1950s.

Thoughts?
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,586 posts, read 3,019,935 times
Reputation: 12813
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stonepa View Post
Bottom line? I'd think that much of the boring, relatively low skill or commodity, repetitive work will go away and the creative or intellectually challenging work will remain.
I'd agree entirely... but you have no idea how far my viewpoint on that goes.

To start with, 90% of people in IT or even CS aren't really capable of 'creative or intellectually challenging work.' Being a freakin' whiz with a compiler is baby steps compared to building one. My general example for this is that there are people out there who know things about MS Word that even Microsoft doesn't... but none of them are bestselling authors. Most IT/CS and even software development types are advanced tool users, not innovators or creative thinkers. I'd say the same is true of most STEM educatees - a whiz at what is, nowhere near the level of creating more of it.

So yeah, 10% of the field might remain in a creative development mode after automation replaces the next few tiers of homo faber technologus.

And as for 'creative and intellectually challenging work' in general... that's kind of what those despised, economically disastrous liberal arts degrees are for, ain't it? Teaching intelligent humans how to think and create and both address and find challenges... just not in silicon tech.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:06 PM
 
Location: San Ramon, Seattle, Anchorage, Reykjavik
2,241 posts, read 985,070 times
Reputation: 3110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
I'd agree entirely... but you have no idea how far my viewpoint on that goes.

To start with, 90% of people in IT or even CS aren't really capable of 'creative or intellectually challenging work.' Being a freakin' whiz with a compiler is baby steps compared to building one. My general example for this is that there are people out there who know things about MS Word that even Microsoft doesn't... but none of them are bestselling authors. Most IT/CS and even software development types are advanced tool users, not innovators or creative thinkers. I'd say the same is true of most STEM educatees - a whiz at what is, nowhere near the level of creating more of it.

So yeah, 10% of the field might remain in a creative development mode after automation replaces the next few tiers of homo faber technologus.

And as for 'creative and intellectually challenging work' in general... that's kind of what those despised, economically disastrous liberal arts degrees are for, ain't it? Teaching intelligent humans how to think and create and both address and find challenges... just not in silicon tech.
Love it!
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