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Old 06-03-2019, 01:37 PM
 
1,244 posts, read 708,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Sigh.

Name any form of automation or efficiency engineering that created more jobs than it replaced, ever.

Is society less prosperous nowadays than it was before the 1st industrial revolution, or more prosperous.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stonepa View Post
Define 'tech job'. Many traditional IT operations roles, distributed at the private data center level, have already been replaced by cloud providers, virtualization, infrastructure as code and further automation, automated provisioning, etc. Much core programming, especially at the level performed by many companies with internal development shops, has been replaced at some level by big ERP, off the shelf tools and packages, automated testing, micro services, etc. Much of the typical support and help desk work has been replaced by self service, dev ops and automation. Simple IT business office work such as training, IT procurement, and contract management is also going away with the 'pay as you go' cloud capacity and services. So, lots of factor driving change in the IT space. What hasn't changed, and will be a prime place for humans as opposed to the always discussed but as yet not realized highly intelligent AI? Project Management, especially Agile. Creative design work. Data science and analytics, especially development of algorithms. Consulting. Cost optimization. IT Audit. Information Security. Many cloud-focused roles that are not purely repetitive. Game development. Relationship management between customers and IT. Usability design and testing.

Bottom line? I'd think that much of the boring, relatively low skill or commodity, repetitive work will go away and the creative or intellectually challenging work will remain.

In other words, the same kinds of changes that have been ongoing in IT since the late 1950s.

Thoughts?
I think that those creative and intellectually challenging jobs will remain. But just for awhile, as AI is continually improved even those kind of jobs will become automated.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,579 posts, read 3,001,676 times
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Originally Posted by Sorel36 View Post
Is society less prosperous nowadays than it was before the 1st industrial revolution, or more prosperous.
If that were in any way relevant to the discussion of jobs and workforces, I'd answer it. But, you know, food for thought, which should be easy thinkin' given that we're already seeing the results:

What good is prosperity if only a minority of the population has it?
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
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Originally Posted by BusinessManIT View Post
I think that those creative and intellectually challenging jobs will remain. But just for awhile, as AI is continually improved even those kind of jobs will become automated.
Possibly, someday. I can see AI writing soap operas and sitcoms, sure.

But there's an upside to all of this, which discussions never get to. You're on the right track.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:51 PM
 
Location: San Ramon, Seattle, Anchorage, Reykjavik
2,237 posts, read 982,939 times
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Originally Posted by BusinessManIT View Post
I think that those creative and intellectually challenging jobs will remain. But just for awhile, as AI is continually improved even those kind of jobs will become automated.
Working in ML and AI today. Building an 'intelligent machine' which is basically a bunch of human defined algorithms solving very specific and tightly constrained use cases or a long series of memorized patterns is tough enough. I think we have some time to go before we have a truly intelligent machine. When we do, it may be game over. I hope we have enough foresight to know where that line is.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:51 PM
 
1,244 posts, read 708,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
If that were in any way relevant to the discussion of jobs and workforces, I'd answer it. But, you know, food for thought, which should be easy thinkin' given that we're already seeing the results:

What good is prosperity if only a minority of the population has it?

I will let you look up the expansion of the middle class and how it correlates with each industrial revolution.
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:53 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stonepa View Post
Working in ML and AI today. Building an 'intelligent machine' which is basically a bunch of human defined algorithms solving very specific and tightly constrained use cases or a long series of memorized patterns is tough enough. I think we have some time to go before we have a truly intelligent machine. When we do, it may be game over. I hope we have enough foresight to know where that line is.
We're quite a ways from GMI and even further from MC.

But neither are needed to sit and do actuarial or accounting work 24 hours a day. Or warehouse management, or freight logistics, or about five hundred other focused jobs that presently need somewhat more flexibility and judgment than software alone can provide... but nothing else on the human intelligence scale.
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Old 06-03-2019, 03:28 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
We're quite a ways from GMI and even further from MC.

But neither are needed to sit and do actuarial or accounting work 24 hours a day. Or warehouse management, or freight logistics, or about five hundred other focused jobs that presently need somewhat more flexibility and judgment than software alone can provide... but nothing else on the human intelligence scale.
Yup, we used to pay a vendor ~$15k/yr to hand code survey responses where the respondent provided the retailers name that first came to mind for certain things. In one afternoon I built an algo that was 99.1% accurate at doing the exact same thing. My boss joked that I was taking some old ladies' jobs away.
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Old 06-03-2019, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorel36 View Post
I will let you look up the expansion of the middle class and how it correlates with each industrial revolution.
I neither need anyone slowly reading me their Econ 101 text, nor have much remaining patience for those who cite it as some kind of immutable gospel, especially when current events pretty clearly show a widening gap between comforting theology - sorry, theory - and reality.

I've likened it to a guy in an ER who slowly reads a basic anatomy book to a team frantically trying to save an accident victim, but even that's more solidly grounded in science and bloody reality.

Thanks for playing, though.
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Old 06-03-2019, 08:50 PM
 
4,069 posts, read 5,463,311 times
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Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
And AI coupled with face recognition has already transformed that. The idea that a zillion street cameras are useless because it takes a multiplying number of people to watch them was nonsense five years ago. One supervisor scanning a dozen monitors connected to thousands of cameras controlled by AI told to watch for certain people and actions will be plenty. Already is, in some setups.


Ah yes, the retraining argument. Live your life and career as if it's all disposable and move to ND to become a roughneck at 45. Or forget 20 years of programming experience and retrain in systems that didn't exist three years ago - you know, the ones all the kids finishing college have been fully indoctrinated in.

And every step of this process reduces the number of people actually needed to so it, so between those who develop a stage, those who learn it as their first career and a horde of graying-hairs who do a quickie career conversion to it... well, righty then. The old Jobs For All That REALLY Want Them chant.

It's a horse-puckeys argument and you know it. But carry on.
Where are these massive layoffs in police, security, and surveillance in China, where AI and facial recognition heavily deployed. Is there massive unrest from the unemployed AI developers, security device factory workers, police, military, etc? More are employed in that sector than 10 years ago in China.
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