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I've said it before, I'll say it again... if you are afraid that automation or robots or illiterate Third World peasants are going to replace you, your problem is not the automation or robots or illiterate Third World Peasant.
Of course there's going to be an increase as AI is developed and implemented. AI is just now on the cusp of implementation for most of the fields it will invade in the next decade or two. If you think this situation is going to continue, given AI's potential to replace dozens and hundreds of jobs at a stroke (and in fields from which there are no paths to development, implementation or even maintenance of AI systems), you are wearing deeply rose-tinted lenses.
Of course there's going to be an increase as AI is developed and implemented. AI is just now on the cusp of implementation for most of the fields it will invade in the next decade or two. If you think this situation is going to continue, given AI's potential to replace dozens and hundreds of jobs at a stroke (and in fields from which there are no paths to development, implementation or even maintenance of AI systems), you are wearing deeply rose-tinted lenses.
You mean like with all of the other deeply disruptive technologies? The ones that we were warned would take our jobs, and then they got going, and we heard the doom-and-gloom "Just wait for it!", and years later, everyone is far better off?
I know. This time it's different! History doesn't count any more! This time, you know exactly how this is going to play out! Seems like a great opportunity to make a killing in stocks.
Sit smugly on your book about cotton gins all you like. However, you're welcome to analyze and counter this viewpoint while you do it:
MechCo is three people working on limited-purpose AI systems. They're on the verge of a breakthrough.
They hire 100 people with advanced degrees in CS and related fields to work on the problem. Yay! 100 new jobs!
[Aside: this is the reality point; I am talking about an actual company for which my AI-expert colleague consults.]
They break through. [They're close.]
They hire another 100 people with advanced systems/IT degrees to start building and implementing systems. Yay! Another 100 new jobs!
Every system this 203 people (the original complement of the Enterprise, IIRC) turns out replaces 50 to 1000 jobs - accountants, actuaries, warehouse managers, loan officers, whole tiers of jobs that were thought "robot proof." Let's say they sell twenty systems their first year and displace 10,000 workers in all. You're now down 9,797 jobs.
So maybe MechCo expands, adding a few dozen or a hundred jobs to meet demand and development - how many of those will be now (permanently) unemployed accountants? But yay, another 100 jobs. You're only down 9600 or so now. (More likely: MechCo thins their own ranks with less need for skilled labor and some automation of their own. But never mind that.)
Repeat cycle with a dozen major players in the AI field, increasing their coverage and skill with an increasing range of job replacement - with the ratio of AI jobs reaching 10k, 50k, 100k replaced jobs.
You can do simple math, here, right? And note that lower-level white collar workers are not going to become AI experts, or even AI-system-building experts, in any significant numbers? And are unlikely to find equivalent jobs as the AI replacements roll through their entire field?
But go ahead, explain how we'll end up with vast job expansion from this process, or any reasonable variation of it, and how many of those jobs will go to the displaced workers.
AI will create new jobs and new industries. In time there will be even more fields of study related to AI that will open new industries that we haven't even thought of yet. Some of y'all are counting TRADITIONAL jobs that are being lost and losing sight of the big picture down the line.
Remember 10 years ago there were no people getting rich from posting videos of themselves brushing their teeth or walking around trying on different styles of LuLaRoe. Now that is happening every day on youtube and who knows what else. People set up Patreon accounts to draw in money from viewers watching amazingly mundane tasks like testing frozen foods from the dollar store. My point is this - the meteoric success of Youtube probably cost a lot of people a lot of money in the music and video industry. But it spawned a bazillion NEW possible revenue streams. Don't get me started on the explosion in the online ad industry in which youtube was one of the key pioneers.
AI is already doing something similar. And yes, youtube uses AI a lot.
AI will create new jobs and new industries. In time there will be even more fields of study related to AI that will open new industries that we haven't even thought of yet. Some of y'all are counting TRADITIONAL jobs that are being lost and losing sight of the big picture down the line.
Speculate away as to how systems that replace human effort on an exponential scale will generate jobs at or exceeding that level.
This doesn't take Jobs/Gates/Buffett level prescience; you should be able to sketch out how adding AI to the mix can produce industries that then require millions of new, human-only jobs.
(Spoiler: the truly exceptional people I know in the field, on the TED talk/congressional committee level, can't make this equation work. Good luck.)
AI will create new jobs and new industries. In time there will be even more fields of study related to AI that will open new industries that we haven't even thought of yet. Some of y'all are counting TRADITIONAL jobs that are being lost and losing sight of the big picture down the line.
You mean "traditional jobs" like elevator attendant, switchboard operator, bowling pinsetters, milkman, copyboy... ???
You mean "traditional jobs" like elevator attendant, switchboard operator, bowling pinsetters, milkman, copyboy... ???
Okay, close your eyes and wish real hard, based on a smug assurance that nothing ever really changes.
See you in five years or so. When you see the NYT headines about white-collar employment being down 20%, it's time to look me up again.
You do realize that "real" jobs have been steadily diminishing over the last few decades, masked only by a rise in 'service' jobs, most of which are McJobs that can't even support one person? Consider what will happen when life- and family-supporting jobs drop below a sustaining level - and we're pretty close already - and the discretionary income that feeds yoga instructors, Starbucks, McD's and nail salons shrinks suddenly and drastically. (The stage is already set for this chain reaction.)
I guess they can all go into AI or some wondrous new fields that AI will enable - assuming there is any market for those fields among a massively unemployed population.
Nighty night, now. See you soon. Gotta go help my colleague prep for a congressional committee appearance.
The aim of AI is to automate all jobs. That is the desired end result since computers, robots, and other machines can and will do jobs better, faster, and cheaper than people. AI may be able to create more people jobs now, but in the future all jobs will be automated. It is just the natural progression of technology. The past doesn't equal the future.
Every system this 203 people (the original complement of the Enterprise, IIRC) turns out replaces 50 to 1000 jobs - accountants, actuaries, warehouse managers, loan officers, whole tiers of jobs that were thought "robot proof." Let's say they sell twenty systems their first year and displace 10,000 workers in all. You're now down 9,797 jobs.
He is saying the tech will bring out new possibilities. Hence creating new job industries that we haven't thought of yet. Industries that you can't take into consideration for your calculation...Because.. they don't exist yet.
Or maybe the tech will cause a demand in some other sectors that currently exist.
If you go back 100 - 200 years in time and tell all the workers that in the future, machine would be doing all of these jobs, they'll probably go bat$h!t crazy as well. They wouldn't be able to comprehend that the advancements will create a demand for accountants, warehouse managers, loans officers, software developers, etc...
Only time will tell. It's way to soon to know if it's going to be for the best or for the worst.
Last edited by Liar_Liar; 07-01-2019 at 02:02 PM..
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