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Old 11-02-2013, 10:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bartonfly View Post
China without a doubt... Many people underestimate the power of China, although even now we feel the strong influence of our eastern neighbor. Russia will have to choose a side in the future, the West or the East.
Russia has never really chosen a side in their entire existence (does any country? maybe more or less to some extent), I seriously they are not going to anytime soon as long as they have the ability to nuke the entire world and have the resources they do (which is the aim of the West to control).
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Old 11-03-2013, 04:18 AM
 
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I think that in the next few decades, we'll have 3 super powers; The EU, China, and the US.
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Old 11-03-2013, 06:44 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
14,465 posts, read 11,245,012 times
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To all those people who think China is the next superpower, you really should read this excellent article.

Dazzled by Asia - The Boston Globe

There are no emerging superpowers. Will things even out over the next several decades? to some extent, yes, but don't expect another nation to surpass the US as the world's superpower. We are already 13 years into the "Post-American Century" and America is still the pre-eminent nation of the planet and really isn't showing a significant slacking.

Btw, to all you people who declared that it would be a BRIC nation, that is just another way of saying anyone but the U.S.
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Old 11-03-2013, 06:49 AM
 
Location: Chicago
242 posts, read 368,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Joshua View Post
To all those people who think China is the next superpower, you really should read this excellent article.

Dazzled by Asia - The Boston Globe

There are no emerging superpowers. Will things even out over the next several decades? to some extent, yes, but don't expect another nation to surpass the US as the world's superpower. We are already 13 years into the "post American Century" and America is still the pre-eminent nation of the planet and really isn't showing a significant slacking.

Btw, to all you people who declared that it would be a BRIC nation, that is just another way of saying anyone but the U.S.
I agree its very overstated how much the USA is in decline.
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Old 11-03-2013, 10:38 AM
 
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^ The US is not in decline, but to underestimate the future influence of China, and a more unified EU is naive. It just seems like a knee jerk reaction to counter the ignorant few who think that the US is declining. Like I said, the future will likely be dominated by the EU, with its own separate agenda (not related to NATO), China, and the US. It certainly won't be the US monopoly that it has been for the past several decades.
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Old 11-03-2013, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
14,465 posts, read 11,245,012 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InvalidUsername View Post
^ The US is not in decline, but to underestimate the future influence of China, and a more unified EU is naive. It just seems like a knee jerk reaction to counter the ignorant few who think that the US is declining. Like I said, the future will likely be dominated by the EU, with its own separate agenda (not related to NATO), China, and the US. It certainly won't be the US monopoly that it has been for the past several decades.
I see that you didn't read my link, you really should it's interesting. And what makes you think the EU will dominate? They're barely holding it together as it is.
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Old 11-03-2013, 12:45 PM
 
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The U.S. is relatively declining and not actually declining.

Actually if you look at the each of % GDP over the world for all 19 members of the G20, you can see that 16 of them are either relatively declining or maintaining their share. The 3 countries that are really gaining grounds are China, India, and Indonesia.
Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

China's share of global GDP was only 7% in 2000 but jumps to 18% by 2018
India's share of global GDP was only 3.7% in 2000 but jumps to 6.4% by 2018
Indonesia's share of global GDP was only 1.2% in 2000 but jumps to 1.6% by 2018

U.S.'s share of global GDP was only 24% in 2000 but drops to 18.6% by 2018
Japan and Italy suffer the biggest % drop.
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Old 11-03-2013, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Chicago
242 posts, read 368,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryopus View Post
The U.S. is relatively declining and not actually declining.

Actually if you look at the each of % GDP over the world for all 19 members of the G20, you can see that 16 of them are either relatively declining or maintaining their share. The 3 countries that are really gaining grounds are China, India, and Indonesia.
Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

China's share of global GDP was only 7% in 2000 but jumps to 18% by 2018
India's share of global GDP was only 3.7% in 2000 but jumps to 6.4% by 2018
Indonesia's share of global GDP was only 1.2% in 2000 but jumps to 1.6% by 2018

U.S.'s share of global GDP was only 24% in 2000 but drops to 18.6% by 2018
Japan and Italy suffer the biggest % drop.
Before china can even become global power, they first need to get there country together, china is communists, it has a very high poverty rate, many are illiterate, the population is too high, too much pollution, low immigration, no rules just whatever happens.
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Old 11-03-2013, 06:18 PM
 
218 posts, read 375,205 times
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@^ China is smart though. Their 1 child policy is actually going to lead to significant population decline in the next 50 a years, which would be very bad for most countries. However, China's solution is to move more and more people into the urban areas that are actually contributing to the rusing GDP. For this reason, while their population will have reached its peak and began collapsing, their urban, productive population will continue to increase and fuel demand. I agree that immigration should be a long term goal, but there is no way you can be so ignorant as to discredit China's future role as a world super power. Their military spending will likely surpass that of the US within the next 2 decades.
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Old 11-06-2013, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,652 posts, read 6,965,116 times
Reputation: 7323
Quote:
Originally Posted by InvalidUsername View Post
@^ China is smart though. Their 1 child policy is actually going to lead to significant population decline in the next 50 a years, which would be very bad for most countries. However, China's solution is to move more and more people into the urban areas that are actually contributing to the rusing GDP. For this reason, while their population will have reached its peak and began collapsing, their urban, productive population will continue to increase and fuel demand. I agree that immigration should be a long term goal, but there is no way you can be so ignorant as to discredit China's future role as a world super power. Their military spending will likely surpass that of the US within the next 2 decades.
It's interesting to note that a lot of Chinese who immigrated here are returning - because they can make more money investing in China. In other words, the Chinese Dream > American Dream. I personally know a few. Maybe they don't stay in China and ultimately return to US, I don't know. But they're killing it in real estate and service businesses over there. That would've been unheard of a generation ago.

I think the key element of "superpower" is sphere of influence, and the US will pretty much have the entire Western Hemisphere - or at least the relevant parts of it. China will not be a factor in the West to the degree the USSR was. It's just not in China's political DNA to meddle that far beyond their borders. They might get more into Middle East/Africa for its resources, but doubtful they'll ever have influence in Europe beyond trade.

For that reason it's also doubtful China would ever want to be "the world's police". That gives them the advantage of spending less on defense while still developing a national defense with the same capabilities of the US. I think they're fine letting the US spend trillions on military actions all over the globe as long as the US doesn't get too close (e.g. escalating presence in Taiwan, So. Korea).

Thus, w/o defense taking up a ridiculous portion of their budget pie, China can use more of their budget for other national R&D programs - like space - that may give them an innovation edge in the not-too-distant future. And we know what NASA's influence has been in developing technologies that found other purposes in defense and electronics.
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