Imagine the world in the year 2100
A world completely unrecognizable to the one you lived in 2015, imagine what the world looked like in 1915 compared to the year 2000, change it seems is unpredictable
but certain historical patterns emerge and common sense and logic can gain you insight into the future, you could easily see the fragmentation of the great European powers by 1915 and you could begin to predict the rise of Russia and the United States, as well as the clash of capitalism and communism
There was a book published in 2009 by George Freidman, In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.
The Next 100 Years - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Now you might think any predictions made into the future are complete fantasy, but history repeats itself, you can predict certain things or at the very least take a guess based on what's happened in the past and what's happening in the present
I'm not saying his book is word for word what will happen in the 21st century but I think it's all possible
He's not some nutjob either,
He's an
American political scientist and author. He is the founder, chief
intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation
STRATFOR
In the book he predicts lots of things that may potentially happen in this century and in out lifetimes:
A 2nd Cold war - In the Late 2010s he predicts a second cold war between the USA and Russia, this cold war will be smaller than the 1st and it will be the USA trying to weaken Russia and stop it's re-emergence as a Global Power
This book was written in 2009, and since then relations have drastically worsened between the USA an Russia because of the Ukraine crisis, what we are seeing now is a standoff just as freidman predicted
The Collapse of Russia and China -
In the early 2020s, the new Cold War will end when the economic strain and political pressure on Russia, coupled with
Russia's declining population, and
poor infrastructure, cause the Federal government of Russia to completely collapse, much like the
Dissolution of the Soviet Union. Other
former Soviet Union countries (such as Ukraine) will fragment as well.
Around this time, China will politically and culturally fragment as well. The book asserts that the
rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society. Regional tension in China will grow between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior. The end result will be regional fragmentation of the country. Although China will remain formally united, the central government will gradually lose much of its real power, with the provinces becoming increasingly autonomous.
In the 2020s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of China will leave
Eurasia in general chaos. Other powers will then move in to annex or establish spheres of influence in the area, and in many cases, regional leaders will secede. In Russia,
Chechnya and other Muslim regions, as well as the Pacific
Far East will become independent,
Finland will annex
Karelia,
Romania will annex
Moldova,
Tibet will gain independence with help from India,
Taiwan will extend its influence into China, while the United States, European powers, and
Japan will re-create regional spheres of influence in China
3 new powers will emerge in Eurasia
Poland - Poland will start to lead a military bloc of eastern European nations, Poland and its allies will be a major power, much like the time of the
Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Now possessing substantial military strength, Poland will expand its economic influence into what was formerly
European Russia, and will begin to compete with Turkey for influence in the important economic region of the
Volga River Valley, Poland will fill the void left by Russia in Eastern Europe, Poland will retake the lands it lost in world war 2 and will slowly start to intergrade western Ukraine and Belarus into its borders, by the late 2040s Belarus and most of Ukraine will be a part of the Polish state
Turkey - Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and become a
regional power, much as it was during the time of the
Ottoman Empire. The Turkish sphere of influence will extend into the
Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and north into Russia and other
former Soviet Union countries
Japan - Japan will expand its economic influence to regions of coastal China, the
Russian Far East, and many Pacific Islands. Friedman predicts that Japan will change its foreign policy during this time period, becoming more geopolitically aggressive, beginning a major military buildup. Friedman predicts that Japan will build military strength capable of regionally
projecting power across
East Asia during this time.
Building Tensions
Around this time, space programs for military use will begin to emerge, and Japan and Turkey will increasingly begin to develop military capabilities in space.
By 2020, the United States will have been allied with Turkey and Japan for over 75 years. However, in the years after the end of the second cold war and collapse of Russia, The United States will gradually become uneasy as Turkey and Japan expand their military power and economic influence. Establishing regional spheres of influence, Turkey and Japan will begin to threaten American interests. The growth of Turkish and Japanese naval power, and their military activities in space will be particularly disturbing to the United States.
Japan and Turkey, having similar interests, will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. The book also speculates that
Germany and
Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, although it is generally unlikely. In this coming confrontation, the United States will be allied with the "Polish Bloc," probably with a restabilized China, India, a reunified
Korea, and the United Kingdom. By the 2040s, there will be global tension and competition between these two alliances.
In the mid-21st century, around the year 2050, a
Third World War will take place, between the United States, the "Polish Bloc," Britain, India, and China on one side, and Turkey and Japan on the other, with Germany and France entering the war in its late stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. According to the book, the war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-Japanese
sneak attack against the United States and its allies. In the book, Friedman predicts that the attack will take place at a time in which the Americans will be taken completely off guard, and hypothesizes 5:00 p.m. on November 24, 2050 (
Thanksgiving Day) as a potential time.
[SIZE=2][1][/SIZE]
The Turkish-Japanese alliance's initial strike will cripple the military capabilities of the United States and its allies. The Turkish-Japanese alliance will then attempt to enter negotiations, demanding the United States accept the Turkish-Japanese's alliance's status as a fellow
superpower. However, the United States will reject the terms and go to war, refusing to accept Turkish and Japanese hegemony over Eurasia. The Turkish-Japanese alliance will initially possess a military advantage after crippling the United States' military during its first strike. However, as the war progresses, the balance of power will begin to shift as the United States rebuilds and increases its military capabilities, and pioneers the use of new military technologies. The war will ultimately end with a victory by the United States and its allies.
The primary weapons of the war will be long-range
hypersonic aircraft and infantrymen with
highly sophisticated, powered body-armor.
Control of space will be crucial over the course of the conflict, with space-based weapons systems and military bases on the
Moon playing a significant role. The war will last about two or three years. According to Friedman, the war will be a
limited war, very different in its conduct than a
total war, such as
World War II of the 20th century. Friedman asserts that this will be due to the fact that all major powers involved in the conflict will possess nuclear weaponry, and that use of
Precision Guided Munitions will minimize
collateral damage. Friedman estimates that the war will cost somewhere around 500,000 lives.
Post War
Following the war, the United States will enjoy a new post-war boom that will begin in the 2050s following the war and last throughout the 2060s. The economic boom will come as a result of increased defense expenditures that lead to the development of new technologies, which will foster dramatic economic growth and increase American influence worldwide. In addition, the economic problems imposed by mass retirement of the baby boomers will fade away as the last of the boomers die.
The United States will continue to be militarily and politically dominant over the world, and will also cement its hegemony over space. In particular, it will work to keep other powers from developing military capabilities in space. Meanwhile, Turkey will retain the bulk of its sphere of influence, although its
de facto empire will become increasingly restive as a result of defeat, while Japan will lose its own sphere of influence. Under the US-dictated treaty that will end World War III, military restrictions will be imposed on both Japan and Turkey, although in practice they will be unenforceable and "merely a gratuitous humiliation victors enjoy imposing on the vanquished".
Meanwhile, Poland's power will grow due to the expanded size of the Polish Bloc as a result of the war. Although its infrastructure and economy will have been shattered, and despite having suffered particularly heavy casualties, Poland will exploit the Polish Bloc's increased sphere of influence to rebuild its economy. The United States will begin to look at the Polish Bloc's growing strength as a potential future threat. To prevent Polish hegemony in Europe, the United States will ally with its former enemy Turkey, as well as Britain, to prevent Poland from dominating Europe, and will prevent Poland from making use of space for military purposes.
US-Mexican Conflict
According to the book,
North America will remain the center of gravity for the global
economic and political system for at least a few more centuries following the 21st century. However, this does not guarantee that the United States will always dominate North America. In the decades following the war, starting in the 2070s,
tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, after decades of massive immigration, many parts of the United States, especially the
South West, will become predominantly ethnically, culturally, and socially Mexican. During this period, many
ethnic Mexicans living in the Southwestern United States, especially those living in the
Mexican Cession, will increasingly shun
assimilation into American culture, due to the fact that they will live in a predominantly Mexican region, as well as the close proximity of Mexico. These demographic changes will be irreversible. Most Mexicans in the US Southwest will identify as Mexicans rather than Americans, and their national loyalty will be to Mexico and not the United States. During this period, Mexico will experience substantial
economic and population growth. By the end of the 21st century, Mexico's military and economic power will have grown tremendously, and it will be in a position to challenge the United States for dominance of North America. In addition to an insurgency by Mexican separatists, political, cultural, and military tensions between the United States and Mexico will rise, and generate into a full-blown confrontation.
An extended crisis between the United States and Mexico will ensue, one that the United States will be unable to resolve through the use of military force. Most of the world, wary of American dominance, will secretly hope for a Mexican victory, especially Poland and Brazil, but no other nation will directly interfere. Friedman's final prediction is that the conflict will continue into the 22nd century.
do you think any of this will happen ?
what are your opinions on frediman predictions ?
and what are your own beliefs regarding the future ?
sorry for the long post
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
They don't even have the urge anymore to attack Britain!
