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Old 08-09-2017, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Chicago area
11,481 posts, read 6,048,638 times
Reputation: 45076

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Here's a very interesting article about a very tricky situation.

How Not to Negotiate With North Korea


North Korea has a very young, paranoid dictator that likes to eliminate every perceivable threat that comes his way. Even family. Dealing with an unstable mentality like that is indeed tricky. Having a verbally incontinent, erratic president is equally disturbing, however, I don't think either side wants a war. North Korea would be obliterated in the end after they did significant damage to the U.S. and allies. I think Kim Jong Un knows this, and the end result would be the end of his regime. There is a lot of bravado and banter on both sides.

Kim Jong Un remembers what happened to Gadhafi after he disarmed Libya's nuclear weapons. This is not a bargaining chip he is willing to give up. Even with crippling sanctions. His people will starve. He will be just fine. So will his nuclear arsenal. The key may be finding something more valuable to him to replace his security blanket.

Right now we have three options. Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate. Go to war, or ignore their advancement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/a-po...f-gadhafi.html
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Old 08-09-2017, 10:13 AM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
15,844 posts, read 19,791,198 times
Reputation: 8061
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
I think this is just talk. If he were really going to hit Guam, why would he announce it to the whole world first?
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Old 08-09-2017, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
4,653 posts, read 3,475,916 times
Reputation: 5408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seattle4321 View Post
Could America take over North Korean because of the middle threats and take control of it? Like keep it as a territory or something similar?
What is a "middle threat"?
"I'm not familiar with that term"
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Old 08-09-2017, 10:46 AM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
9,288 posts, read 19,296,119 times
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The USA could certainly defeat North Korea but it wouldn't be worth the destruction and destabilization of South Korea and Japan. If we defeat NK but loose get our allies destroyed the real winner would be China. The best US strategy is the ignore NK and do what we can to keep South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan strong.
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Old 08-09-2017, 11:26 AM
 
766 posts, read 238,878 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by censusdata View Post
The USA could certainly defeat North Korea but it wouldn't be worth the destruction and destabilization of South Korea and Japan. If we defeat NK but loose get our allies destroyed the real winner would be China. The best US strategy is the ignore NK and do what we can to keep South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan strong.
So, the only reason the US refuses to help poor North Koreans is to avoid making China the winner?
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Old 08-09-2017, 11:39 AM
 
10,540 posts, read 15,981,735 times
Reputation: 14940
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seattle4321 View Post
Could America take over North Korean because of the middle threats and take control of it? Like keep it as a territory or something similar?
Of course we could...but why? No one wants to do that and it's never come up on the table as an option. This is like asking if we can take over Canada. Of course we can if we wanted to. Of course we will not because we don't want to.

If it comes to a military solution there are other options which range from removing North Koreas nuclear capability, shooting down it's ballistic missiles, removing it's leadership. North Korea's government will likely collapse after a short but violent confrontation with ROK and American troops on the border, and then over... and best solution is it to be replaced by something more moderate, or possibly combined back with S. Korea but China won't like that.
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Old 08-09-2017, 11:51 AM
 
10,540 posts, read 15,981,735 times
Reputation: 14940
Quote:
Originally Posted by animalcrazy View Post
Here's a very interesting article about a very tricky situation.

How Not to Negotiate With North Korea


North Korea has a very young, paranoid dictator that likes to eliminate every perceivable threat that comes his way. Even family. Dealing with an unstable mentality like that is indeed tricky. Having a verbally incontinent, erratic president is equally disturbing, however, I don't think either side wants a war. North Korea would be obliterated in the end after they did significant damage to the U.S. and allies. I think Kim Jong Un knows this, and the end result would be the end of his regime. There is a lot of bravado and banter on both sides.

Kim Jong Un remembers what happened to Gadhafi after he disarmed Libya's nuclear weapons. This is not a bargaining chip he is willing to give up. Even with crippling sanctions. His people will starve. He will be just fine. So will his nuclear arsenal. The key may be finding something more valuable to him to replace his security blanket.

Right now we have three options. Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate. Go to war, or ignore their advancement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/a-po...f-gadhafi.html
Your first link contradicts with the rest of your narrative. The problem with "negotiate, negotiate, and negotiate" is our previous administrations have "appease, appease, and appease", give N. Korea more rice, more this and that, we were actually rewarding them for bad behavior for decades. that's what your first link was explaining. We aren't "sanctioned out" yet, this current round is good and China is the key. You are correct, Kim Jong Un will not give up his nuke development, he's a God there, a cult of personality. The best approach is removing him and removing that regime by covert means, using China if needed.
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Old 08-09-2017, 11:59 AM
 
766 posts, read 238,878 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
Your first link contradicts with the rest of your narrative. The problem with "negotiate, negotiate, and negotiate" is our previous administrations have "appease, appease, and appease", give N. Korea more rice, more this and that, we were actually rewarding them for bad behavior for decades. that's what your first link was explaining. We aren't "sanctioned out" yet, this current round is good and China is the key. You are correct, Kim Jong Un will not give up his nuke development, he's a God there, a cult of personality. The best approach is removing him and removing that regime by covert means, using China if needed.
China doesn't want to see a future North Korea as a US ally. So the best approach is let China conquer North Korea. China will be happy to expand its influence, and the North Korea threat to the stability of Asia Pacific ceases to exist!
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Old 08-09-2017, 01:29 PM
 
10,540 posts, read 15,981,735 times
Reputation: 14940
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodHombre View Post
China doesn't want to see a future North Korea as a US ally. So the best approach is let China conquer North Korea. China will be happy to expand its influence, and the North Korea threat to the stability of Asia Pacific ceases to exist!
I agree totally. China is afraid of 2 things - millions of starving north Koreans streaming over the yalu to China, and losing N. Korea as that buffer and part of there hegemony.
Let them take out the Kim dynasty and replace it with there own puppet state.
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Old 08-09-2017, 02:36 PM
 
766 posts, read 238,878 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
I agree totally. China is afraid of 2 things - millions of starving north Koreans streaming over the yalu to China, and losing N. Korea as that buffer and part of there hegemony.
Let them take out the Kim dynasty and replace it with there own puppet state.
The problem is the leadership in China is too weak. N Korea is out of control. Destabilized North Korea hurts China more than the U.S.

The "buffer" doesn't really help China much anymore. Allowing Kim to mess up will only lead to more U.S military presence in Asia, which isn't great for China.
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