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Old Yesterday, 07:00 AM
 
2,350 posts, read 887,349 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LINative View Post
First, if what you say is true and the Turks abandon the West, then the next time the Russians threaten the Turkish straits, the Turks should not come crying for help to us or anyone else. They will be on their own.

Second it will be the supreme balancing act to keep mostly Sunni Turkey and mostly Shia Iran on the same team, especially if the Turkish people see Iran increasingly interfering in the politics of Sunni nations. They can probably do it in the short run if the Turkish government is able to keep the relationship on a secular basis but I don't think it can be maintained in the long run.

Regarding Turkey and Russia, they can either work together in Central Asia (where many of the people are Turkish related) or they could wind up competing with each other.
Keep in mind Iran and Turkey are connected by the fact that they are the only two other large ethnic groups (Persians and Turks) in the Middle East that are not Arabs.
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Old Yesterday, 07:34 AM
 
Location: East of the Blue Ridge
19,948 posts, read 20,424,642 times
Reputation: 8162
Quote:
Originally Posted by TreeBeard View Post
This is part of the larger problem of the amateurs leading this nation. Trump and his group of arrogant cronies are undoing nearly 80 years of American leadership starting with Truman and Marshall. Trumps recklessness is destroying, or rather has destroyed, alliances and replaced them with nothing. Others are filling the void. Trump is going leave this nation weaker than it has been,since anytime before since the American Revolution.

This the only first step in the new international order that will come. The nation will pay the price
The Obama administration opened up the floodgates by lifting the sanctions and sending Iran a influx of $1.7 Billion plus there are some stories that the US may have sent upwards of $33.6 Billion.

Iran May Have Received as Much as $33.6 Billion in Cash From U.S.
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Old Yesterday, 07:37 AM
 
Location: East of the Blue Ridge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
Keep in mind Iran and Turkey are connected by the fact that they are the only two other large ethnic groups (Persians and Turks) in the Middle East that are not Arabs.
In addition, their Sunni and Shia populations are not blowing each other up.
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Old Yesterday, 08:11 AM
 
Location: East of the Blue Ridge
19,948 posts, read 20,424,642 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringSnow View Post
Why does it require extreme balancing to keep Sunni Turkey and Shia Iran on the same team? It's not like Turkey hasn't made strong alliances with Christian nations (eg most NATO nations) and even Jewish (Israel).

...
Israel and Turkey have been on shaking ground for years. The EU will have to at some time confront Islamification or continue on it's path of looking the other way of sending backdoor funds to not be attacked and increase their Oil purchases from Iran.
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Old Yesterday, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
2,787 posts, read 1,164,514 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
Keep in mind Iran and Turkey are connected by the fact that they are the only two other large ethnic groups (Persians and Turks) in the Middle East that are not Arabs.
Plus I think Turkey and Iran, plus Russia want to rebuild their once lost empires. Of course they won't actually try and reconquer those lands, but they will want to reabsorb them into their sphere of influence. However they are competing over the same countries so time will only tell if they will cooperate with one another and play nice. But they do have a common enemy at the moment, and that would be Saudi Arabia, but the Sauds will eventually fall and then Turkey and Iran will compete for the top position in the Islamic world, or perhaps they will share that mantel together.
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Old Yesterday, 09:24 AM
 
2,350 posts, read 887,349 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pruzhany View Post
The Obama administration opened up the floodgates by lifting the sanctions and sending Iran a influx of $1.7 Billion plus there are some stories that the US may have sent upwards of $33.6 Billion.

Iran May Have Received as Much as $33.6 Billion in Cash From U.S.
To be fair, that was Iran’s money to begin with.
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Old Yesterday, 10:02 AM
 
Location: East of the Blue Ridge
19,948 posts, read 20,424,642 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
To be fair, that was Iran’s money to begin with.
Doesn't really matter as it still was a large quick influx of cash which was readily usable.
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Old Yesterday, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Great Britain
5,277 posts, read 1,659,563 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scr...-lower-profile

Will it last?
Can Washington influence ever be beat?
Will Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US beat them?
Lets not form too masny stupid alliances, as alliances have led us to war too many times in the past.
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Old Yesterday, 10:48 AM
 
Location: On the Great South Bay
6,211 posts, read 8,583,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringSnow View Post
Why does it require extreme balancing to keep Sunni Turkey and Shia Iran on the same team? It's not like Turkey hasn't made strong alliances with Christian nations (eg most NATO nations) and even Jewish (Israel).

These alliances are geopolitically driven, this is why Iran and Russia are in a alliance despite 200-300 years ago, the Russian empire began picking apart at the Iran. Most of the Caucasus republics that are now independent and used to be part of the USSR were part of Iran before Russia took them.
I am no expert but I am basing it on my knowledge of history and foreign policy. These 3 countries, Turkey (the Ottoman Empire), Russia and Iran (Persia) were often competing with each other and sometimes outright enemies for hundreds of years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...t_of_conflicts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman–Persian_wars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Persian_Wars

Right now there are some small "buffer states" between them like Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. In the long run, there is bound to be competition among Russia, Turkey and Iran who has the most influence in these countries. This is also true in Central Asia where Russia long had dominance but now has to compete to keep it. There are Turkish and Persian (Iran) speaking people in Central Asia and Chinese influence has been growing as well. It is just a matter of time before things begin to heat up again.

There is already potential for conflict. Armenia is a close ally of Russia but Armenia does not have good relations with Turkey, in fact she has land claims against the Turks. Also mostly Christian Armenia has a major border dispute with mostly Shia Muslim Azerbaijan. Then there is the potential for religious conflicts and competition between Sunni and Shia, one only has to look at neighboring Iraq and Syria for examples of what that can do.

I see lots of potential for conflict in the long run, I don't think a 3 way Turkish, Iranian and Russian Alliance can last.
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Old Yesterday, 10:57 AM
 
Location: On the Great South Bay
6,211 posts, read 8,583,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
Keep in mind Iran and Turkey are connected by the fact that they are the only two other large ethnic groups (Persians and Turks) in the Middle East that are not Arabs.
Now that is an excellent point. And it is what I believe the main focus of Iranian policy.

The Iranians are a Persian speaking nation bordered on the west by dozens of Arab speaking nations. And even worse (from a foreign policy perspective), Iran is a mostly Shia nation surrounded by mostly Sunni nations.

So Iranian foreign policy is to avoid being isolated by taking the attention off themselves and put it on others as the outsider. For example, do people think the Iranian government really cares about the Palestinians (Arabs) that much? Or is it more about making Israel the outsider in the Middle East and taking focus off Iran?
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