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There's only China that's going to become a super power, India and some other countries such as Brazil will become more important due to their sheer size but poverty rates will hold them back.
India will be a superpower in 30 years. 7% annual growth rate in economy. That means using the rule of 70, if India can maintsin such a growth rate it will maintain that growth rate (it has had it with ups and downs for decades now) its economy will be somewhere around 18 trillion in 2050. That is superpower sized economy even with a high population.
Currently, only USA and China may be called superpowers, but geopolitics may change a lot in 20 or 30 years. If we look back 20 or 30 years ago, the world was emerging from the Cold War with the dissolution of the then-superpower Soviet Union and later Yugoslavia, while Venezuela was still a stable democracy and no serious publication would rank South Korea and Estonia as developed countries. Around 2050, the world may have a new superpower which nobody expects.
India will be a superpower in 30 years. 7% annual growth rate in economy. That means using the rule of 70, if India can maintsin such a growth rate it will maintain that growth rate (it has had it with ups and downs for decades now) its economy will be somewhere around 18 trillion in 2050. That is superpower sized economy even with a high population.
I agree. India is the only viable option. All the other countries have too small of populations or major other hurdles they are not close to fixing. That said, I think even India will take more then 30 years to reach super power status as the US and China will not remain economically static.
Indonesia and Brasil may eventually get there, but not in 30 years.
I think that the only countries that have the potential to reach true "superpower" status in just 30 years are China and Russia.
India needs to undergo deep cultural and societal transformation of the sort that is unlikely to have occurred adequately in just 30 years. China and Russia however are already fully modern cultures and need only a change in leadership and political ideology, something which could happen quickly and suddenly.
Steady economic growth combined with democratic transition and smart diplomacy could have these two achieve superpower status in just 3 decades.
India could achieve it within 50 years with liberal transformative leadership. India is an inevitable superpower. Just a question of when.
Poland's population is too small to truly be a superpower, but at this rate I can easily envision Poland having amazing living standards in a couple of decades
IMHO there are 4 dimensions to a fully fledged superpower status...military (and capability to project power), economic (which includes scientific knowledge and technological innovation, industrial capabilities, etc...), natural resources, truly independent foreign policy.
Currently only USA and China posses all 4 of them (the natural resource aspect for China is not very strong but it's there)
Russia has 3, if they can reach sustained GDP growth of 5% or more and further diversify and broaden their economy, it could nail the fourth in few decades.
None of the other remaining countries posses more than one or two dimension (economic and/or natural resources)...India and Brazil are potential superpowers too (I still think that Russia has more chances to climb back to full superpower status before these two can get there) but, in my opinion, Brazil recently actually took some steps back (foreign policy aspect)
P.S.
I would add a 5th aspect to a superpower status...cultural dominance....so far the only real cultural superpower (mind you, mass culture) is still the US with nobody else being even remotely close.
Last edited by saturno_v; 03-28-2018 at 04:53 PM..
Currently, only USA and China may be called superpowers, but geopolitics may change a lot in 20 or 30 years. If we look back 20 or 30 years ago, the world was emerging from the Cold War with the dissolution of the then-superpower Soviet Union and later Yugoslavia, while Venezuela was still a stable democracy and no serious publication would rank South Korea and Estonia as developed countries. Around 2050, the world may have a new superpower which nobody expects.
BBM~~Sorry, I do have to disagree.. Due to DJT's administration has systematically WITHDRAWN from partnerships ( TPP) CHINA was blocked out and stepped in.. Then of course NAFTA.. and guess what.. DJT want's individual greater benefits ( tho has has ZERO knowledge of his benefits already for USA) .. Mexico/Canada both deal in Global trade.. BUT USA is isolating/ Tariff's will only COST American Citizens.. BUT hey, Lets his low level educated one's jump up and down SMH!! America's COL will INCREASE due to such uneducated actions by POTUS!
Meanwhile, China has already taken over North Korean possible negotiation.. ( BTW China has been propping NK for decades to protect them) DJT lauds, it's him that has opened that door, meanwhile his latest Loudmouth, demands First STRIKE ( thus setting off nuclear WAR) only suggests.. Possible Nuclear WAR is soon viable and millions dead.. and millions fleeing into China!!
Problem with the OP's question and Poll, THEY didn't even mention CHINA!! China has filled in DJT's America.. and America will be left out in the COLD! Germany has already said over a year ago.. EU is on their own.. and happen to believe they have hedged their economical practices to mitigate DJT's stupid Govern by Tweets idiocies!!
Good luck, when GOP Congress bows to his Bullying.. and doesn't call out their POTUS on obvious PROBLEMS.. GOP Majority will be gone soon!!
World power's are re-shuffling.. as YSA has crawled under a rock it seems. His ability to negotiate has been tainted.. BECAUE HIS WORD means NADDA!
IMHO there are 4 dimensions to a fully fledged superpower status...military (and capability to project power), economic (which includes scientific and technological innovation, industrial capabilities, etc...), natural resources, truly independent foreign policy.
Currently only USA and China posses all 4 of them (the natural resource aspect for China is not very strong but it's there)
Russia has 3, if they can reach sustained GDP growth of 5% or more and further diversify and broaden their economy, it could nail the fourth in few decades.
None of the other remaining countries posses more than one or two dimension (economic and/or natural resources)...India and Brazil are potential superpowers too (I still think that Russia has more chances to cling back to full superpower status before these two) but, in my opinion, Brazil recently took some steps back (foreign policy aspect)
I would add a fifth category: Cultural footprint
How much is media from a certain country consumed abroad? By media, I'm talking about everything from the news, to movies, comics and franchises (KFC, Walmart...)
This is what truly separates the US from China or any other potential superpower at this stage. Most of the other nations on the list are able to project soft power in their neck of the woods, but their global outreach is limited, though I do believe that China will be able to do so in the near future.
Brazil is not even a nuclear power at this stage, so I think it's out of the race.
India's Bollywood industry is huge, though it mostly targets audience across South Asia. On the military front, it has a somewhat antagonistic relationship with it's two nuclear neighbors, one of which is a potential superpower. China is way ahead of India in almost every aspect, or at least those that are of value to being a superpower.
Russia has potential, but once again, it is bordered by a country that is in many ways more advanced and Chinese media is more well known around the world.
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America's COL will INCREASE due to such uneducated actions by POTUS! 
