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Old 01-04-2019, 11:17 AM
 
10,455 posts, read 12,643,553 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob702 View Post
How exactly did it model itself after America? I see massive differences between their respective economic, social and political systems.
Of course it didn't. Just more tiresome USA, USA, USA boosterism.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
1,520 posts, read 976,785 times
Reputation: 1712
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
The United States has a pretty solid foundation as a country. In spite of all the noise you might hear, there is very little fundamental change in this country from year to year or even from decade to decade.

This country will probably chug along at 2% annual GDP growth and about 1% annual immigration, on average, for many years to come. Nobody has a crystal ball, but I don't see a collapse on the horizon.
This is right. The U.S. in absolute terms is a strong, growing country. It is, however, in relative decline.

The share of the world economy that is in the U.S. declines by the year.

This isn't to say that the U.S. will collapse. But it is to say that, little by little, U.S. involvement will have to retrench and re-accommodate the new rising powers of China and India.

If China at some point threatens U.S. domination, then The Thucydides Trap might kick in.

But, as I mentioned in the previous post, I see China's relative rise to be gradual and America's relative decline to be gradual.

And, unlike the Soviet Union, China's foreign policy philosophy is not global domination, but recognition of its preeminence in Asia. For all the talk of Africa and Latin America, those are resource providers.

China's real wish is to displace the Asian order, led by the U.S. and Japan, and replace it with a system where they are in control.

Given that China has 1.3bn people, there's no way the U.S. can ever hope to maintain long-term parity with China, unless you think the productivity of the American worker will always be 4x higher than the Chinese, which is impossible.

China might fall into the Middle Income Trap and stabilize at GDP per capita levels closer to 50% of U.S. GDP. But that would still mean an economy twice the size of the U.S.

So how will this end? Not with a bang, but a whimper. Over many decades, the U.S. will cede dominance in certain areas to China.

It's re-accommodation of the balance of power and has happened countless times in history.

America perceives itself as the "Great Balancer" in Asia, and will continue to maintain a strong foothold in Asia, for the simple reason that if China becomes the undisputed hegemon of Asia, Asia alone is 3 billion+ people, excl. India.

So America's policy will be to maintain as much of a presence in Asia as possible while accommodating Chinese power in certain respects.

Over time, China's zone of preeminence in Asia will increase, and that of the U.S. will decline. But it will be gradual and based on re-accommodation, not WWIII.

China is a threat to the liberal democratic world order, but not to the U.S. per se.

By blessings of geography, the U.S. is largely safe from any major foreign invasion. It has unrivaled dominance in its hemisphere and a strong network of alliances with the majority of the remaining top ten economies.

The U.S. needs to massively re-invest in the European Project. The U.S. cannot play whack-a-mole in the world for the next 50 years and for many Americans it's becoming tedious to be the "kingmaker" in every conflict that arises: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan/Afghanistan, defense treaties with everyone.

The European Union needs to rise up to the challenge, integrate to becoming a United States of Europe, and be a major force for ensuring world order.

The European strategy of "letting the U.S. do it" will massively backfire down the line.

America is a historically isolationist nation and one where public opinion unravels quickly.

The worst case scenario for Europe and Japan, and the rest of the democracies, is the U.S. says "**** it", we'll nation-build at home.

And then world order will collapse.

I hate Trump with a passion but he's right that alliances are a two-way street. Some countries want the U.S. defense guarantee and then promptly decrease defense spending to 1%, while attacking the U.S. for being so "interventionist." And this isn't just our enemies, but our allies. Canada and the UK and most of Europe has long decided that they'll focus on domestic improvement while the U.S. tackles the grunt work. And they send "symbolic" coalition forces that number in meager amounts as a "show of support."

Meanwhile it's the American population holding the world on its back like Atlas by spending 800 billion dollars on military spending. All the while inequality in our country is going up, wages are stagnant and young people have to get Master's degrees to get ahead.

The American public does not feel deeply invested in foreign policy and the U.S. is more likely to pull from the international system than it is to collapse because of China or some other world actor. The U.S. will decline in relative terms, but that will be gradual. The real disaster is a China waiting for the moment to pounce and a weary U.S. going isolationist because they no longer care about what happens to allies they don't see as doing their part.
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Old 01-06-2019, 03:03 AM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
2,946 posts, read 1,069,300 times
Reputation: 5609
The collapse of the USA will not be the cause of the world changing, but the effect of it. The USA will be unable to keep up with a changing world.

Language willl have a lot to with it. When English truly becomes the global language, the US will no longer have a natural superiority, and Americans who are insufficiently educated won't even understand the global English.
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Old 01-06-2019, 05:42 AM
 
303 posts, read 66,823 times
Reputation: 129
Russia will not exists, just Siberians, Caucasians, and their rith rate is minus,
China always callapeses when arrived at certqain levels, 4 times during the last 2500 yeqars
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Old 01-06-2019, 07:02 AM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
2,946 posts, read 1,069,300 times
Reputation: 5609
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHESTER MANIFOLD View Post
Russia will not exists, just Siberians, Caucasians, and their rith rate is minus,
China always callapeses when arrived at certqain levels, 4 times during the last 2500 yeqars
So did Europe. Rome fell, the Muddle Ages, the World Wars.
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:56 PM
 
Location: San Diego CA
4,111 posts, read 3,051,068 times
Reputation: 6469
Powerful nation states rise and fall through history. Welcome to the global empire of China.
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Old 01-13-2019, 02:59 AM
 
281 posts, read 341,365 times
Reputation: 323
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
I hate Trump with a passion but he's right that alliances are a two-way street. Some countries want the U.S. defense guarantee and then promptly decrease defense spending to 1%, while attacking the U.S. for being so "interventionist." And this isn't just our enemies, but our allies. Canada and the UK and most of Europe has long decided that they'll focus on domestic improvement while the U.S. tackles the grunt work. And they send "symbolic" coalition forces that number in meager amounts as a "show of support."
But how does America feel about Australia's involvement in global defence and military intervention in other regions? Australia could be considered isolationist too, and its past mirrors that of America, in that sense. Given Australia's distance from Europe, it has created that famous term "tyranny of distance", which can sort of be like a flipped coin: one side it might have hindered Australia historically, but on the other side it also provided Australia with a sense of fortune. Saying the USA will collapse is a bit dramatic, but it might take a back seat in its self-promotion for a long time.
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Old Today, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Southeast AZ
51 posts, read 11,787 times
Reputation: 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa View Post
This is right. The U.S. in absolute terms is a strong, growing country. It is, however, in relative decline.

The share of the world economy that is in the U.S. declines by the year.

This isn't to say that the U.S. will collapse. But it is to say that, little by little, U.S. involvement will have to retrench and re-accommodate the new rising powers of China and India.

If China at some point threatens U.S. domination, then The Thucydides Trap might kick in.

But, as I mentioned in the previous post, I see China's relative rise to be gradual and America's relative decline to be gradual.

And, unlike the Soviet Union, China's foreign policy philosophy is not global domination, but recognition of its preeminence in Asia. For all the talk of Africa and Latin America, those are resource providers.

China's real wish is to displace the Asian order, led by the U.S. and Japan, and replace it with a system where they are in control.

Given that China has 1.3bn people, there's no way the U.S. can ever hope to maintain long-term parity with China, unless you think the productivity of the American worker will always be 4x higher than the Chinese, which is impossible.

China might fall into the Middle Income Trap and stabilize at GDP per capita levels closer to 50% of U.S. GDP. But that would still mean an economy twice the size of the U.S.

So how will this end? Not with a bang, but a whimper. Over many decades, the U.S. will cede dominance in certain areas to China.

It's re-accommodation of the balance of power and has happened countless times in history.

America perceives itself as the "Great Balancer" in Asia, and will continue to maintain a strong foothold in Asia, for the simple reason that if China becomes the undisputed hegemon of Asia, Asia alone is 3 billion+ people, excl. India.

So America's policy will be to maintain as much of a presence in Asia as possible while accommodating Chinese power in certain respects.

Over time, China's zone of preeminence in Asia will increase, and that of the U.S. will decline. But it will be gradual and based on re-accommodation, not WWIII.

China is a threat to the liberal democratic world order, but not to the U.S. per se.

By blessings of geography, the U.S. is largely safe from any major foreign invasion. It has unrivaled dominance in its hemisphere and a strong network of alliances with the majority of the remaining top ten economies.

The U.S. needs to massively re-invest in the European Project. The U.S. cannot play whack-a-mole in the world for the next 50 years and for many Americans it's becoming tedious to be the "kingmaker" in every conflict that arises: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan/Afghanistan, defense treaties with everyone.

The European Union needs to rise up to the challenge, integrate to becoming a United States of Europe, and be a major force for ensuring world order.

The European strategy of "letting the U.S. do it" will massively backfire down the line.

America is a historically isolationist nation and one where public opinion unravels quickly.

The worst case scenario for Europe and Japan, and the rest of the democracies, is the U.S. says "**** it", we'll nation-build at home.

And then world order will collapse.

I hate Trump with a passion but he's right that alliances are a two-way street. Some countries want the U.S. defense guarantee and then promptly decrease defense spending to 1%, while attacking the U.S. for being so "interventionist." And this isn't just our enemies, but our allies. Canada and the UK and most of Europe has long decided that they'll focus on domestic improvement while the U.S. tackles the grunt work. And they send "symbolic" coalition forces that number in meager amounts as a "show of support."

Meanwhile it's the American population holding the world on its back like Atlas by spending 800 billion dollars on military spending. All the while inequality in our country is going up, wages are stagnant and young people have to get Master's degrees to get ahead.

The American public does not feel deeply invested in foreign policy and the U.S. is more likely to pull from the international system than it is to collapse because of China or some other world actor. The U.S. will decline in relative terms, but that will be gradual. The real disaster is a China waiting for the moment to pounce and a weary U.S. going isolationist because they no longer care about what happens to allies they don't see as doing their part.


/thread.


I'm all for reform in the U.S.A. and as an American, I do agree with some of the international criticisms (certainly not all by any means), but the reality is most of the world really does not truly comprehend the power, geography, resources, accumulated advantages, and diversity that all but ensure that the U.S.A. will not simply "collapse." Unless you nuke the majority of North America, or a volcanic super-eruption destroys 90%+ of this nation, the best those who seek the demise of the U.S.A. can hope for is as you stated, gradual, relative decline and general pull back.
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