Quote:
Originally Posted by davidt1
Yes, be very scared. China has been around for much longer than the US. They know how to conquer the world through military, economic, and cultural tactics. 99% of the products I buy in the US are made in China. Americans are hooked on cheap Chinese products like junkies on drugs. In some ways they have taken over the US without firing a single shot. They have successfully bullied their smaller neighbors such as Vietnam and the Philippines. They are operating in Africa and South America. On the technological front, they just became the only country to land a probe on the far side of the moon. The Chinese walls are closing in on America's dominance.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
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This is too nice to China. China hasn't even broken through the First Island Chain - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines - yet. Their naval projection is extremely weak and they are pushing away potential allies with their South China Sea strategy, which has only moved Vietnam and the Philippines closer to the U.S.
China's problem is that it is a nation-state. For all talk of diversity, Han Chinese are at the heart of every layer of power. And just like Pan-Asianism failed for Japan in WWII, it will fail for China as well. In an era of fervent nationalisms, China isn't a brother to its Asian compatriots, but an existential threat.
As a result, China cannot have a foreign policy of "being the guardian of Asia" - as it had for many centuries - because adjacent countries don't want or need a guardian.
South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam aren't going to be sending bouquets of roses to Xi Jinping thanking him for tutelage. They are trying to maximize their defensive capabilities to deter Chinese interference.
Because China is a nation-state, they don't have any appeal to neighboring countries. Even their fellow Communist compatriots in Vietnam dislike China - a vestige of centuries of animosity since China pushed Vietnam south into its current borders.
China still conceives of Asia as it was 500 years ago, with a bevy of satellite states who would thank the Chinese Emperor for his generosity in not destroying them by sending him jewels and other luxuries. China has never stopped conceiving of itself as the Celestial Kingdom at the heart of the universe. And they think that at some point China's neighbors will simply accede to Chinese ecumenical tutelage.
But they haven't yet broken through the American alliance system and it's becoming clear they can only advance their national interest going forward through hard power, the buying of economic influence, and tapping its fifth column in ASEAN: the Bamboo Network.
The problem is hard power takes decades to build. It's not simply about building an aircraft carrier, but training the Chinese Navy to use their new gadgets. Training a military is a multi-decadal process. Look at Saudi Arabia today. They have good gadgets, but their military is incredibly weak. If Iran invaded Saudi Arabia, the Saudi army would fall apart in weeks. They are neither battle-tested nor experienced in modern warfare. And blowing up Yemenis with drones is hardly the type of combat experience a country needs to defend itself.
Buying of economic influence is temporary. As we see with Taiwan, as soon as another country provides a better offer, all of your economic influence goes poof.
And the Bamboo Network is both a blessing and a curse. It gives China a reason for being involved in the politics of its neighboring states by ensuring the well-being of Chinese minorities abroad, similar to how Russia wields influence in its near abroad. But it also creates animosity among native populations who see the Chinese as trying to buy their way into power.
It's why the Malaysians have spent the better part of 5 decades trying to weaken the Chinese minority and why national elites are trying to pare back the influence of their ethnic Chinese nationals.
In the end China for the next 25 years will be building strength to break through the First Island Chain, which will eventually happen. Then comes another 25 years of them trying to break through the Second Island Chain of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands. But China has so many continental interests to defend that it will never become a global hegemon. It will simply become a continental behemoth in various stages of rivalry with India and the United States. So long as that happens, China will remain a continental power.
China can buy African dictators off, but China doesn't exert cultural pull in Africa. So its influence there will be limited.
The same with Latin America. The U.S. has little interest in Latin America these days yet the region still gravitates towards Washington. Why? Because cultural attraction is sticky and increasingly important in maintaining hegemony.
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