Does anyone think a second Korean War could happen? (2009, tenant)

[pirate_lafitte]

I just read an article about the armies of Korea facing off. It is said that a war is not likely, but I don't know that for sure. Anything could happen. What do you think?

BTW, this is the link:Korean armies face off but repeat of war unlikely - Yahoo! News

[j_k_k]

I think a North Korean implosion is more likely, but it's always possible NK could invade the ROK. Anything's possible when nothing you say to your population has to bear even a faint resemblance to reality.

[Tiger Beer]

I was living in South Korea for about 7-8 years...(I'm white American - not Korean person).

Anyways, I feel it is INEVITABLE.

It is not possible that the North Korean government will just 'quit' to exist, and hand over all control to South Korea. It is also NOT possible for the South Korean government to just 'quit' to exist and give all control to North Korea either.

At some point...and it seems as if basically everyone is just waiting for North Korea to 'do something', to legitimize going in and 'taking them out'.

At this time, no one can...if the U.S. initiated something like that, probably Seoul would be wiped off the map...I mean, it could happen anyways, but you can't initiate anything with North Korea to expediate that.

But, I think it is inevitable, that the ONLY way this stalemate will ever end, is through some aggressive act that starts it.

Also having lived in South Korea for years, it also felt like there were CONSTANT threats all the time...so much to the point that it is all meaningless and means nothing. People don't even think about it over there. It's kind of like reading about Russia attacking the U.S. during the 'Cold War' years...you always knew it COULD happen, but no one really thought about it.

The difference though is that Russia continues to exist...whereas if North Korea 'gave up', it would cease to exist...

[pirate_lafitte]

I think it could happen. It happened before. I watched a television program about South Korea. There are tour guides about the DeMilitarized Zone, which is an ironic name because it has nothing but a military presence. It looked very intense with the soldiers standing at a modified taekwando stand also known as "ROK ready".

[j_k_k]

Originally Posted by pirate_lafitte

I think it could happen. It happened before. I watched a television program about South Korea. There are tour guides about the DeMilitarized Zone, which is an ironic name because it has nothing but a military presence. It looked very intense with the soldiers standing at a modified taekwando stand also known as "ROK ready".

My father-in-law used to be in the DMZ Police Co. when he was a young trooper just after the armistice. As late as 1984 I listened to a lecture from a captain who had been stationed there when he was a lieutenant. Evidently it has long been a very dangerous place, with firefights more frequent than either side broadcasts.

[pirate_lafitte]

Originally Posted by j_k_k

My father-in-law used to be in the DMZ Police Co. when he was a young trooper just after the armistice. As late as 1984 I listened to a lecture from a captain who had been stationed there when he was a lieutenant. Evidently it has long been a very dangerous place, with firefights more frequent than either side broadcasts.

All the more reason to believe that anything can happen. A war could insue. If all of that is happening behind closed doors, then the chances of a war is higher than most of the public might believe.

[Ashls]

Technically, the Korean War hasn't ended. I often wonder if Kim Jong Il would want to go out with a bang or if he'd entrust his son to finish things. I also wonder if there aren't military persons or politicans higher up who long to reach out and solve the entire crisis in a rational manner.

[John McClane]

If Kim Jong Il wants to start a war of nukes with the United States, than he obviously has a death wish. North Korea does not have a nuke that is power enough to both reach the mainland United States and wipe out this entire country off the map.

He knows the chances of North Korea defeating the powerful empire that is the United States is a big fat NONE.

North Korea is not the big kid on the block, the United States is and they know it. No little 3rd world country with a population that is smaller than the state of Texas, going to wipe out over 300 million Americans off the face of the earth.

[pirate_lafitte]

Originally Posted by Ashls

Technically, the Korean War hasn't ended. I often wonder if Kim Jong Il would want to go out with a bang or if he'd entrust his son to finish things. I also wonder if there aren't military persons or politicans higher up who long to reach out and solve the entire crisis in a rational manner.

True. It was technically a ceasefire, but the chances of that ceasefire ending and firewar coming into action are anyone's guess.

[eskercurve]

The NK family dynasty communist structure is self-perpetuating. The originator, Kim Il Sung, was installed as a puppet governor under soviet guidance, and started a personality cult in which he is still revered as demi-god. Technically no one ever succeeded him - Kim Jong il created a new post for himself which has the same powers but different name.

The person who is widely believed to succeed him, Kim Jong un, hopefully is more moderate, as he has an education from Switzerland and is fluent in English. However, Kim Jong il is likely to snub anyone who isn't as crazy as he is, so I doubt anything will change.

Conservative elements in NK, unless they're totally stupid, will never attack the South, and vice versa. To do so would be suicide and political suicide, respectively.