It's a misperception that Californians are driving housing prices up (Cheyenne: crime, broker)

[molon labe]

California = bad.

[wyoman]

Originally Posted by NVDave

We've been looking around the Sheridan area at real estate for the last six months. There are really two markets here:

1. The under-$300K market. This is supported by actual folks working at actual jobs in the area, or by middle-class folks moving into the area with the resource boom.

2. The above $300K market. And in this market, it should be noted that there's very little in the market in the $300's - you suddenly see a whole lot more properties priced in the $400 to $600K range. This strata of the market is almost certainly priced upwards by Californians and people moving out of eastern urban areas; the local wages/salaries won't support people buying properties in the $500K range with conventional mortgages unless they have a large amount of equity from a previous property.

What I'm seeing now are prices on the $500K properties starting to come down. The first adjustments downwards started late last autumn; now we're seeing properties that have been on the market since last summer getting their second price reduction. This, I firmly believe, is because the "creative" mortgages and the influx of out-of-the-area equity has dried up.

And it doesn't take a planeload of people. It takes surprisingly few people to manipulate prices in smaller cities/towns. Remember realtors and appraisers work off "comp sales" -- so let's say you own a house in an area and two places sell in 2005 for vastly inflated values to Californians (who, it must be said, are utterly retarded about real estate valuations and the RE market in CA right now proves my point). You want to sell your place in 2006 after those two places sold. You think your place is worth $125/square foot, plus some for acreage and outbuildings.

Your realtor(s) look at the recent sales in the area and they see the two sales to Californians and they use those to price your place. Instead of $125/square, you're up near $180 to $190/square foot on your asking price - not because YOU think it is worth that much, but because your realtor sees what your neighbors' places sold for. No plane load of people needed, only two sales in proximity to your place were needed to drive up the price of your place.

Prices are going to go back down, but it will take a while. It is quite clear to me that the out-of-state equity and high LTV mortgages are gone from the market now, and all we're waiting for is reality to catch up to people trying to sell their property.

BTW -- I'm a farmer from Nevada. I know the price of ag land based on what it can produce. The price of ranches and farms in the Sheridan area is completely driven by out of state money and (quite frankly) idiots with more money than brains. I see places that can't support 100 head of cows selling for $4.3 million. That's insane. For the same amount of money, I can go down into the Lander area and buy a ranch that will run 1,200 cows and sell excess hay. That's more in line with what the real ag value of the land is.

Great post! Most areas without any irrigation takes 100 acres to support a cow calf pair-and thats in our good years! Sucker around every corner?

[ruggedindividual]

Originally Posted by molon labe

California = bad.

For the most part I agree. But California is an exceptionally beautiful state. Breathtaking land out there. Napa, the Redwoods, Big Sur highway...Why do all the really pretty places always get the loons? Except Wyoming, of course.

[molon labe]

Originally Posted by navyvet79

For the most part I agree. But California is an exceptionally beautiful state. Breathtaking land out there. Napa, the Redwoods, Big Sur highway...Why do all the really pretty places always get the loons? Except Wyoming, of course.

That was said only partially in jest.... I lived in CA for a good number of years, so I know from experience all the ups and downs. There is great food that you won't find here in Wyo. There is public infrastructure that supports things like professional baseball/football/basketball clubs and other huge events. The coastal areas are nice as are the Sierra Nevadas. The north coast is one of my favorite areas out there, as are the Sierras. I've spent literally years worth of time in my life in the Carson, Emigrant, and Mokelumne wilderness areas as well as Mendocino and Humboldt counties. The scenery in these areas is gorgeous, and there is something to be said for eating fresh clam chowder in a just-baked bread bowl on a pier overlooking the ocean.

NONE of these things outweighs the problems with CA. The place is overpopulated, overtaxed, over-regulated, occupied by Mexico in various areas, has high crime rates, poor wage to cost of living ratio, high property prices, and a "me first" lifestyle that leaves people stepping on their neighbors' heads to get past them. The pretty areas are overpriced and underpaid; the densely populated areas are overpriced and underpaid when you factor in the cost of living.

The one big problem I personally have with people from CA (this is coming from somebody who was born and raised in Modesto, CA) is that they tend to migrate to other states and then try to make those places like CA. I HATE CA for it's socialist-oriented, fiscally irresponsible, illegal alien accepting, anti-business, greenie agenda, elitist politician, nanny state mentality. Those things seem way too normal to many CA residents, and those ideals tend to spread when those residents relocate to other areas.

I like my money (I work hard for it), I like a good economy, I like my guns, and I don't want the government telling me what to do. I don't want Wyoming to turn towards these ideals.... I don't want to wake up in 10 years and find that I moved out of CA only for CA to come to me. Anybody that wants to come to Wyoming for Wyoming is ok in my book; I have an inherent mistrust of anybody who wants to come here and change it into whatever they think it should be.

[WyoMama]

NV Dave Rock on. I just laugh when those who sell their $350-500K cramped quarters in Calif & come here, build HUGE homes in the Cody area & then find out the wages BITE & then have to sell their great homes & move into some little house like 95% of the rest of us live in because most of us are not defined by our homes but our quality of life and what we give back to our community. And YES. When we see the "newcomers" come in the newspaper it is pretty remarkable how many are from Cali or Colo. Same story both way. Trust me - neither admit quickly where they are from. And NO it does not take "plane loads" (although in the planes that come here that could be 2 full families) moving in to make a large diff. "Dictionary" needs to check out "statistics of geography".

[wyoman]

Originally Posted by WyoMama

NV Dave Rock on. I just laugh when those who sell their $350-500K cramped quarters in Calif & come here, build HUGE homes in the Cody area & then find out the wages BITE & then have to sell their great homes & move into some little house like 95% of the rest of us live in because most of us are not defined by our homes but our quality of life and what we give back to our community. And YES. When we see the "newcomers" come in the newspaper it is pretty remarkable how many are from Cali or Colo. Same story both way. Trust me - neither admit quickly where they are from. And NO it does not take "plane loads" (although in the planes that come here that could be 2 full families) moving in to make a large diff. "Dictionary" needs to check out "statistics of geography".

Good post WyoMama Will have a few more comments about people calling other peoples homes dumps also! Guess we need to find out who the butt heads really are? With me on that?

[Heit]

You can lay blame on folks from CA, CO, anywhere, pick a state. IMO the blame lies firmly on the: 1. Builders 2. Realtors 3. Appraisers. Add a LOT of GREED and you have insanely inflated prices in WY and throughout the country.

I am having a house built in Cheyenne as we speak. I had 6 bids from builders, 5 out of the 6 were CRAZY HIGH! I finally found a builder who gave a fair & honest bid and he got the project. He will build the house for a fair price and make a fair profit. His exact words were this: "I noticed an opportunity for me to build homes for a lower, more realistic amount and still be profitable." "The over priced builders created this opportunity for me."

I have very good friends in the building/lumber industry and they all agree that the builders, with their new fancy trucks and all their toys have been jacking up prices of homes for years in Cheyenne. Their buddies, the Realtors & Appraisers have helped pump up prices. Now the market is re-adjusting and many of these builders are finding themselves idle.

I am blessed to find a builder who is NOT driven by the almighty dollar, has integrity, character and treats people the way he wants to be treated. His family comes first and he knows if he stays true to himself and others he will always have future clients.

Pretty simple to me folks. It is so true.........."you reap what you sow."

[ElkHunter]

If a builder is turned down because his prices are too high, and he's turned down often enough, his prices will go down. But if he quotes a high price and some people jump at it, well, do the math.

It's all checks and balances, and it seems the apathacary isn't very well balanced when people throw money at builders.

[Kristynwy]

Originally Posted by Heit

You can lay blame on folks from CA, CO, anywhere, pick a state. IMO the blame lies firmly on the: 1. Builders 2. Realtors 3. Appraisers. Add a LOT of GREED and you have insanely inflated prices in WY and throughout the country.

I am having a house built in Cheyenne as we speak. I had 6 bids from builders, 5 out of the 6 were CRAZY HIGH! I finally found a builder who gave a fair & honest bid and he got the project. He will build the house for a fair price and make a fair profit. His exact words were this: "I noticed an opportunity for me to build homes for a lower, more realistic amount and still be profitable." "The over priced builders created this opportunity for me."

I have very good friends in the building/lumber industry and they all agree that the builders, with their new fancy trucks and all their toys have been jacking up prices of homes for years in Cheyenne. Their buddies, the Realtors & Appraisers have helped pump up prices. Now the market is re-adjusting and many of these builders are finding themselves idle.

I am blessed to find a builder who is NOT driven by the almighty dollar, has integrity, character and treats people the way he wants to be treated. His family comes first and he knows if he stays true to himself and others he will always have future clients.

Pretty simple to me folks. It is so true.........."you reap what you sow."

I am glad you were able to find a reputable builder... Good luck on your new house... and I am happy there are people like you who don't throw their money at the highest bidder...

My husband is in the heating and Ac industry... and many of the the successful heating companies that have been around since the 1900's, one company in particular in Oregon, built their entire industry on fair prices like that and still made a profit and in the long run became so built up with a customer base the higher charging companies always had to work harder for their business to attract customers.

That is what is happening even here locally, my husband's previous HVAC company charged outrageous rates and they have a very low customer base and my husband's current company has very competitive rates, some of the best paid employees and health coverage yet lower rates than most companies, and because of that a higher customer base. They have three shops one in Gillette, Buffalo, and a brand new one in Sheridan. My husband's overpriced previous employer has one shop in Sheridan that he doesn't even own he rents it...

So in the end you always reap what you sow you are so correct....

[Kristynwy]

Originally Posted by ElkHunter

If a builder is turned down because his prices are too high, and he's turned down often enough, his prices will go down. But if he quotes a high price and some people jump at it, well, do the math.

It's all checks and balances, and it seems the apathacary isn't very well balanced when people throw money at builders.

I totally agree with you until there is accountability on both sides things will not change... More people need to refuse to throw their money at over priced builders and the builders will have no choice but to come down...