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Old 07-01-2008, 08:44 AM
 
56 posts, read 144,034 times
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I just heard that there is 2 1/2 years inventory and banks are tightening lending AND really pulling back on their spec home lending. There are over 150 houses for sale in the 220-300 range. They aren't moving at all.

I see price reductions right and left (even though they are still about 100-50K overprice) ie. a home for 229 should be 150K and so on..

I think we're heading for a huge correction, HUGE. anyone else seeing this?

that said, rents are still hot and rentals hard to find.
I really hope prices come down so more people can afford to be homeowners.
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Old 07-01-2008, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Spots Wyoming
18,696 posts, read 38,484,462 times
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I agree. They really built up homes this summer thinking that they'd sell. But Sheridan didn't need so many new homes as they needed rentals.

These folks in the oil field, coal, and methane fields don't really look to buy because it's such transient work they're afraid to.

And on top of that, the mean wage in Sherdian is $42,000 a year and at those wages, there is no way you can qualify to buy one of these houses. Not even with both working.

Even the "Low Income" housing that was built with Low Income being the drive, are priced at $180,000+. Huh? You almost have to be making above the mean to qualify for the low income housing.
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Old 07-01-2008, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Spots Wyoming
18,696 posts, read 38,484,462 times
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Today's paper actually had 4 or 5 rentals available in Sheridan. Most were reasonably priced. Course there was the typical 3 bd, 2 ba, $2500. a month.
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Old 07-02-2008, 07:08 AM
 
72 posts, read 221,306 times
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Sheridan MLS currently has 315 homes listed. When I started tracking it last Memorial day (2007) it barely touched 200 most of the time. Numbers got down to 175 at one point.

There are about 30-40 on that list that are moving through the sales process at some point........that was an average of 50-60 last fall. There are more in that process marked "L" for loan approval than there was last summer.

The list is still over-weight on listings above half a million.
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:33 AM
 
56 posts, read 144,034 times
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Personally I think it's great, Sheridan needs a little "humbling" I also heard subcontractors are cutting their prices as well. What I think is happening is that someone that has owned their home for a while and is attempting to do what people did in the last 3 years, is sell if for 250K yeah, some little dump that is really only worth 150K.. make the 100-200K then they buy one of the newer "Mountain Shadows Homes" or whatever that are also priced about 200K too much, and so on, their older homes were being purchased by people that really probably shouldn't have been qualifying for 220K plus homes and were just "stretching" now the banks have tightened up and are asking for more money, interest rates are going up, and CBM is slowing.. and those people that made a bunch of money on their older homes just weren't smart about how they used the money, I can't tell you how many people I've met that "sold the old home" or "sold the trailer and 2 acres" and then went out and bought a 450K home and 2 new cars, new trucks, etc. etc. ate out every night at Olivers.. my husband always said, fools and their money are soon parted.. Meanwhile I"d be wondering how in the world someone that looked like they stepped off an episode of the Beverly Hillbillies (and had let's say a job as a routabout and his wife stayed home) could afford a 500K plus house.. or even better some ex "fix-it up" guy and his wife that quilts.. they lived in a dump off 8th and never fixed it up, then suddenly they are buying a patio home at the Powder Horn? ah again.. this has been a bubble.

mmm. wonder if I can get an Escalade or Giant SUV from one of those realtors cheap soon? that's a joke.. I'd never buy that.. but I think we're going to see a huge backlash.. real estate and construction were totally floating this town for a while.. the party is over folks and I think it's going to be a heck of a hangover.
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Old 07-02-2008, 12:25 PM
 
Location: Sheridan, WY
357 posts, read 1,484,936 times
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I've been saying it for awhile. We just bought because we could no longer stand the problems of not being able to get a night's sleep. Having one's sleep interrupted every 90 minutes for months on end makes a person non-functional.

We all know that prices are too high. Realtors and the property sellers they represent don't want to hear anything about the bond market, what the status of banks are, etc. They're completely unwilling to comprehend that the forces in the bond market are far larger than the Sheridan real estate "story." The starting point for real estate adjustments in Sheridan should be land prices. Raw land, say a quarter-section of land, is simply NOT worth $1 million.

We are always told that "real estate is worth what people will pay for it." Ah... but there's the rub. Most people are NOT paying for it. Their bank is. Well, when the banks decide that they no longer want to pony up so much money that people making a median household income of $80K can get a loan of $350 to 400K (and up), then prices are going to have to come down. Real estate is simply not "worth what people will pay for it." Real estate is worth what people can *reliably* pay for it. There is a subtle but important difference there.

I continue to stand by what I've said here earlier in another thread: the changes in the bond markets and in bank lending practices are going to change the housing market everywhere. Unless you're able to plop down cash for a house, you're now going to have a harder and harder time to borrow money to buy inflated real estate, especially any house where you need to borrow more than $417,000. Only loans up to $417K can be sold by your lender or mortgage broker to Fannie/Freddie, and right now, Fannie and Freddie account for 80%+ of all mortgage lending happening in the US. Non-conforming loans have almost dried up. FHA-backed loans account for another 10% of the market. So right there, we see that Uncle Sugar is backing or buying 90% of the loans being made into the housing market nationwide just now.

The "experts" who said that the "sub-prime" mortgage problems were not going to spread to the rest of the real estate market, much less the rest of the economy.... were wrong. Big time.
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Old 07-02-2008, 08:01 PM
 
Location: SHERIDAN
269 posts, read 772,582 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dictionary View Post
I just heard that there is 2 1/2 years inventory and banks are tightening lending AND really pulling back on their spec home lending. There are over 150 houses for sale in the 220-300 range. They aren't moving at all.

I see price reductions right and left (even though they are still about 100-50K overprice) ie. a home for 229 should be 150K and so on..

I think we're heading for a huge correction, HUGE. anyone else seeing this?

that said, rents are still hot and rentals hard to find.
I really hope prices come down so more people can afford to be homeowners.
I agree with you 100% The only difference is the term Homeowner! Most new Homeowners will never actually own thier own home-the mortgage company will ! THE BUST WILL COME BECAUSE OF THE RISING COST OF LIVING-when it starts to take a huge chunk out of the budget just to survive-the over inflated housing will take a definete dive-an the forclosures will rise to the point your tax dollars and mine will be bailing out the careless lenders?
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Old 07-04-2008, 08:37 PM
 
1,178 posts, read 1,990,203 times
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Has anyone seen the houses on what, Montana, I think... the York Place twin homes that are going up? It's been weeks if not months since I've seen anyone doing any work there. The tar paper on the roofs are ruined, looks like they were laid then abandoned. Almost wonder if the workers got deported... they were brought up from Nebraska. Anyways, I did some research, and those houses in NE bring in $130k and I think they're on sale here for over $200k.
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Old 07-04-2008, 08:39 PM
 
1,178 posts, read 1,990,203 times
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Anyhow, gonna be difficult in the coming months to sell anything much over $200k (which still gets you a house that would cost 120-145 anywhere else) with the price of everything going up. I actually regret not buying closer to work since I'm sinking about 6-8 bucks a day just to drive to work.
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Old 07-04-2008, 08:57 PM
 
Location: Cody
430 posts, read 1,491,102 times
Reputation: 87
All I can say is that I'm glad I bought my cave in Cody over 20 years ago - is MINE (paid off), needs a lot of work as is REALLY old, but bought it for under 50K when I did buy it. Roof stays on even in some of those monster super cells we get thru here & has never caved in under snow or anything - is far from airtight but that is the beauty of a wood burning stove :P - feel bad for all the young fam's out there who want to buy. 2 of my 3 kids have now bought their homes (one is here in Cody & got a steal from a dear old friend of ours who is a WII vet) & moved to Alaska to finish his years with his younger brother & just unloaded it to my son for about $80K under market value so won't be affected when the market crash comes - is a large lot, 4-bedroom & detached garage, nice house. My other son is in WV & bought the land so only has to pay for his construction loan but makes decent money working for Appalachian Electric & Power (like REA ior WAPA - LARGE power company in the Appy area) so hoping to have his house done by early winter. They are both in their 20's yet (the one in Cody isn't even married - takes care of all of it himself on single income) so I'm really happy for them. They'll do fine - great workers & great work ethics, both of them. I don't know how/when my daughter & her fam will be able to buy a house; he's not a stabilly employed. Not lazy by any means but is an independent contractor for remodeling etc so is feast or famine all the time. But buying a home is not really a priority with 3 kids. They are just happy to make their bills & have food on the table. Not into "things", which is the way to be, for sure. Maybe they'll be able to cash in when the real estate crash hits here! Remember when it happened in Casper in the early 1990's or late 1980's??? Man ppl took a beating then!!!
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