Thanksgiving Week Storm 2013
Since last week Models have been hinting at a storm coming up the East coast in the November 26-28 time frame.
Details are still early to mention but since it's a travel holiday week this one is being watched closely.
I will be updating this blog daily with what models are showing. It helps keep the weather threads uncluttered with all the updates.
No trolls allowed in here but feel free to comment and ask questions, I will try my best to answer them.
Details are still early to mention but since it's a travel holiday week this one is being watched closely.
I will be updating this blog daily with what models are showing. It helps keep the weather threads uncluttered with all the updates.
No trolls allowed in here but feel free to comment and ask questions, I will try my best to answer them.
Total Comments 18
Comments
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12z Models
The 12z models today are being updated. GFS is coming out now. Euro will be out after 1pm.
Last nights right all models agreed on a coastal storm with significant snows north of I-84 in CT.Posted 11-20-2013 at 09:25 AM by Cambium
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New GFS update says a clipper passes by to the north and gives us snow showers Monday night. Pre game stuff?
It shows the storm stay off shore and stays cold to the coast.Posted 11-20-2013 at 09:34 AM by Cambium
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New Euro and Canadian just out.
Canadian model says its going to snow Monday night from the clipper while the main storm is down south. Tuesday the storm comes up the coast but exits out to sea and only affects the lower Mid Atlantic. That means its cold with snow showers all the way to the coast.
Euro shows the storm come up the coast still with snow to the interior areas.
Next update tonight. Looks like we have a storm to keep tracking.. Maybe 2. Clipper on Monday might drop some snow everywhere.Posted 11-20-2013 at 11:45 AM by Cambium
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Test of BLOG...
This is a test of the BLOG. How and why and what controls the background color...Posted 11-20-2013 at 11:55 AM by Poncho_NM 
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Looking at the Latest Snow totals from the Euro12z, looks like 3 separate snow events. Sunday the 24th. Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th.
One thing I am getting confident on is that this main storm wont be going up the appalacians or Great Lakes.. That means it's not a rainstorm for everyone.
That means either its a NorEaster snowstorm for many or OTS and cold and snow showery. The NorEaster scenario has to be watched because as always its track and strength dependent. Could be all rain at the coast or rain to snow type.Posted 11-20-2013 at 12:56 PM by Cambium
Updated 11-20-2013 at 01:05 PM by Cambium -
Morning Update:
The storm is happening... its just a matter of what track it takes and if it phases with the Northern Jet Stream. Just imagine the flow of weather across the Pacific, Country, and Atlantic. Everything has to come together for a storm to affect us.
Latest consensus has the storm stay off shore and not impact us much except with cold and snow showers..
If you are travelling to the South on Tuesday heads up for some minor delays from rain and wind. Heads up in the Northeast for changing forecast for Wednesday. After that travel is good.Posted 11-21-2013 at 04:22 AM by Cambium
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Quick update: The thermal gradient will be so tight that it will enhance moisture at the coasts.
* Temps are crashing all the way to the coast with the waters that are in the 50s/60s and air temp in the 60s/70s off shore. 30s and 60s are not far off from each other.
* If the Upper Level low goes on top of the surface storm things get a whole lot interesting with snow.
* So many factors are involved including the Tropical storm in the Atlantic and the Clipper that moves through 2 days before.
This is the surface temps Thanksgiving Eve. Very heavy rains in Mid Atlantic at this point.
Posted 11-21-2013 at 07:00 AM by Cambium
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NAM 11/21/13 Update
NAM a medium range model only goes out to 84 hours which is Sunday evening from now.
Here's the last frame showing the storm down south and the major cold air in place in the East Sunday evening.
A great setup for snow overall but of course other factors involved including exact path or storm
Posted 11-21-2013 at 08:36 AM by Cambium
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11/21/13 Afternoon Update: Big Changes
Not over yet says Euro. Very heavy rain and wind storm for the coast up to Maine and 3-10 inch snowstorm for north of I-90. This is CRUCIAL because it can affect millions travelling!
GFS says snow for higher elevations of Mid Atlantic
Canadian same as GFS.
UKMET now in range agrees on Euro track.
This is going to come down to the track and interaction with the northern Jet Stream which is VERY typical to watch this far out.Posted 11-21-2013 at 12:23 PM by Cambium
Updated 11-21-2013 at 12:39 PM by Cambium -
Cool picture made by Rob at LWB. Pretty much shows that the GFS doesn't have a good hand right now sliding the storm too far south.
Euro spins a Wet -n- Wild storm pre-Thanksgiving
Posted 11-21-2013 at 04:12 PM by Cambium
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Evening Update 11-21-13. The Difference
Want to see whats going on? Why one model shows snowstorm and one doesn't?
Keeping it simple... Using Wed afternoon maps.
GFS here. Notice the storm/Jet stream up north near Maine and the storm down south all by itself. This scenario makes the storm slide south and OTS... GSF says this is the solution.
And here's what the Euro shows. The top storm is slower (over Midwest) and interacts with the southern one to pull the storm up the coast. Boom, snowstorm/rainstorm.
Bottom line.. how fast that northern storm is and how it interacts with the southern one. As we read this the northern branch is near Alaska still.
Now imagine the speed over the next few hours and days will affect the outcome of this storm. Now that's a pretty cool perspective. The bottom storm is sitting over California right now.
Pretty fascinating not only to see how timing of things is crucial but how models are picking up on the timing "as is".
Meaning.. with every update data that gets fed into the models they produce a solution. So until that northern branch is over the U.S we'll get some various results.
EXCELLENT BERNIE RAYNO VIDEO explaining all this! Bitter Cold, the Potential for East Coast Storm - AccuWeather.comPosted 11-21-2013 at 08:25 PM by Cambium
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GFS Goes BOOM
Welcome back to the club GFS. I call that the mid range crisis it was going through.
It now agrees with other models and its own ensemble package that the storm comes up the coast. 988 low of Long island.
MAJOR snowstorm north of I-90 CT, MA, VT,NH, ME. Snow down to the coast after a changeover and mix. Amazing to see this because it wasn't a gradual change to this scenario. GFS went right to it.
Remember, these aren't forecasts...just showing what the new updates are. Have to see how consistant and agreement there it.Posted 11-21-2013 at 09:25 PM by Cambium
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11-22-13 Morning Update - MODELS AGREE
So the GFS finally went back to its old tricks and the Euro could be king again.
Models agreeing this storm is coming up the coast. EURO, GFS, CMC here showing a NorEaster Thanksgiving Eve (Wednesday)
Next we watch exact path, temps, and precip types.
Euro continues showing a big snowstorm of 3-12" of snow from PA to southern NY into CT and throughout New England.
Even if GFS is right, wind and heavy rains will slow travel down and then change to snow as the cold air is rushing in.
Posted 11-22-2013 at 04:45 AM by Cambium
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Comments from NWS Discussions
Upton:
OVERALL...RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW NW ZONES...WITH MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO
THE COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IF ANY PRECIP DOES INDEED
OCCUR.
THEN A NW TO SE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON NORTH FLOW. STAY
TUNED...BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Boston:
RIGHT NOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE A MIX OF RAIN CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND SNOW MORE INLAND. HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH TO BE
RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS.
Albany:
THE GEFS PLUME
DIAGRAM HAS MOST MEMBERS WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN FOR KALB BUT A FEW
MEMBERS SHOW CONSIDERABLE QPF AND MUCH OF IT AS SNOW. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ON THE GFS WOULD GIVE PCPN TO THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA
WITH SOME OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WRAPPING THE COLD AIR BACK
ACRS OUR REGION. THE GGEM HAS A TRACK EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
GIVING BULK OF FA RAIN WITH SNOW CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE ECMWF WOULD INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SNOW FOR AREAS FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IN LOOKING AT
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OF THE GFS/GGEM AND ECMWF THE GGEM APPEARS
THE QUICKEST AND CLOSEST TO THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT A
DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED EVENT.Posted 11-22-2013 at 05:06 AM by Cambium
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Thanks! Times got interesting again. Hope everyone is become away of this possibility nowQuote:Originally Posted by Brian26
Great blog Cam! Looks like we have a great week of weather coming up and hopefully beyond.Posted 11-22-2013 at 05:07 AM by Cambium
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11-22-13 Afternoon Update
The 12z runs have come in. Keeping it short and simple...
Euro continues to say 4-8" snowstorm from Eastern PA, NW NJ, Most of CT, and up through Maine. 1-3" to the coast.
GFS says the storm is slower and only Eastern CT and Boston areas get the snowstorm. Everyone else is light snow and wind.
Canadian says warm rain for everyone. That appears to be the outlier and not likely.
Fun times ahead with another storm brewing around December 4th time frame.
Posted 11-22-2013 at 12:34 PM by Cambium
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Since the troll has left the CT Weather forum I've been updating that thread more. But just to have the updates on record I might as well continue here.
Storm Update::
So NAM coming into range now.. It's last frame shows torch and rain even near Great Lakes. (No, this is wrong) Meanwhile GFS shows complete opposite. Frozen precip to Mid Atlantic and OTS keeping CT clear.
So I wonder where the middle ground is.... Oh yeah... Euro. Rain to Snow to Rain for CT. Big snowstorm for MA/VT/NH/ME. New Euro update comes out in 2 hrs.
Posted 11-23-2013 at 09:49 AM by Cambium
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So much going on from this impressive Arctic air, to the 40mph wind gusts, to this storm coming up.
New NAM model has shifted the storm 50-75 miles East. A fluke or a trend? Snow line drops south a bit and a significant snowstorm for interior. The East shift is allowing the cold air to be in place. Below is a snowfall total map from that NAM update.
Winter Storm Watches already going up in Ohio, West Virginia, and PA!
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
Posted 11-24-2013 at 02:06 PM by Cambium
