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Old 06-25-2011, 09:18 AM
wawaweewa
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Things were no different in the past, banks rarely provide seed capital to businesses. Banks want to deal with secured loans or provide loans to businesses with a history of good cash-flow.

Its a rule that most will fail before they succeed? Its amazing to what degree this urban myth gets repeated.

Anyhow, business isn't for everyone, but not because of some changes that have occurred in the economy. Some people just plain suck at business...and some people will create an endless list of excuses.

Banks rarely provided seed capital to start large operations. That is true. No bank is going to front millions of dollars that a tech start up needs. However, banks did front low to mid 5 figure amounts for mom and pop operations to get started. That is dead now. Why would they do that when they can borrow at ZIRP, stick it into t-bills and get a guaranteed 3%+ (even if it's only 3% percent). The borrowing are much more stringent now because banks know most Americans are broke. The odds are not in their favor to be paid back.Especially in this environment.

Yes, it is generally a rule that in business one will have some failure before success. Just like most other things, being a good businessman comes through trial and error. That takes time and doing things wrong in order to learn. Great business don't come about because they do everything right the first time.

Of course some people suck at business. In fact, a lot of people aren't cut out for it. ON the other hand, all of the successful small- medium businesses I know were either inherited family owned operations or the proprietor is on his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th try. There are so many variables (those which the owner can control and others he can't) in getting a business to succeed that a lot of good businessman fail. Quite often, in fact.

Quote:
This is off point as well, the best time to start a business is during a recession, ideally right before it bottoms. This may seem counter-intuitive, but not if you think in terms of GDP growth and competition. When a recession bottoms many competitors have self-destructed which makes room for new businesses right when the economy starts to grow again. On the other hand in "good times", established businesses are the most powerful and barriers to entry are the highest.
Right now we have a demand side problem. Not a supply side problem. The problem isn't a lack of quality goods or services. It's a lack of consumer demand.

Starting a business right before the bottom is like trying to win the lottery so that's a moot point. If you're off by a few quarters here or there you could be toast. Just good old variance.

Quote:
wawaweewa wrote:

I'm one of those boomers who is inclined to agree with you up to a point. IMO, luck is a realtive term. Compared to more recently born generations, we-the-boomers were relatively lucky, but then we were forced agasint our wills to risk our lives and limbs in the Viet Nam fiasco and have our lives put on hold while mighty big brother drafted us to fight that dirty war. You guys don't have to deal with the draft and you don't have soldierhood forced upon you, so that is somewhat of a trade off. You can still go to war if you choose to do so, but big brother ain't making you do it....at the risk of prison time...should you refuse to toe the line.

Additionally, to a certain degree, luck is a factor that is attracted or repelled in accordance with ones attitude. If you keep lookin for scapegoats and keep playing the blame game, your probablity of attracting good luck is greatly diminished.

You don't think certain sectors of the US are still "forced"?

Yes, I wasn't forced because I grew up in a solid middle class family. Other didn't. Their only choice that provides a high probability to improve their life is the military. It's not very far from being forced.

Do you think most grunts join out of some patriotic duty ( i realize a small percentage do) or because the military provides outs that they otherwise would not have had? Would you tell an amputee that he chose to cut off his limb? It's more a necessity than a choice.

I admit, I was and still am lucky enough that I don't need to make that "choice".

Quote:
As a boomer who was looking for work in the 70's I can tell you that your numbers are off. When we got married in 1972 we were struggling. By 1975 we were bringing in a whopping $7k a year and felt damn lucky to have it. We went through gas shortages that made it difficult to find gas to buy, let alone being able to afford to buy it.

Oh, yeah, I almost forgot, do you know anyone that is waiting for a draft notice to be called to go to war? Didn't think so...
Just because things were better, doesn't mean they were great. I don't deny that there were folks like yourself. Nevertheless, more opportunity (on average) did exist back then.

During college I worked part time at a warehouse. One of my co workers was a Guyanese who came into the US illegally in 77 or 78 (he later received amnesty under Reagan). He used to tell me how his first job, as an illegal, paid $10.50/hour. In 2006, after he was laid off from a warehouse making 33/hour, we were working for $12/hr. $10.50 in '78 or 12 in 2006. Inflation much?
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