Post your election predictions here! (John Kerry, votes, Democrats, conservative)
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BTW, right now you can buy 10 shares of McCain for $12.50 or 10 shares of Obama for $88.
For all you McCain optimists, you get back eight times your investment if McCain wins.
Not bad for a one week investment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PollingReport.com
Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.
The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.
Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.
Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
Last edited by Tennis702; 10-26-2008 at 06:10 PM..
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