Quote:
Originally Posted by bUU
Actually, this is what I'm talking about :
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House
What really matters (i.e., the Electoral vote) isn't as close as this indicates, but you're correct that Clinton has a small lead at this point. The real problem for Clinton are in just a few states that make all the difference. If she wins Pennsylvania (currently a tie), Florida (currently for Trump) and Ohio (currently for Clinton), she's POTUS. That's assuming Clinton wins no other states than those that already seem clearly in her column, so even if she loses one of those three, she could still win. If Trump loses any of those three, he's probably lost.. |
I really don't see how Florida (or Nevada or Arizona) are toss ups. Yeah, they are on that map, but there are just way too many Latinx in those States for Trump to win. He's done a sufficiently good job of ensuring the Latinx vote for the Democratic Party for the next three to four generations.
For rest of the tossups I think Donald Trump has a decent shot having a chance at Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but I think Clinton will win those.
Clinton has a decent shot at Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia but Georgia and North Carolina could easily go to Trump depending on turnout. I still sticking with my prediction that Georgia will flip by 2020 due to demographic changes.
That leaves Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. I think Clinton will take Colorado and New Hampshire, while Iowa will probably go to Trump. I know Iowas has gone Blue in the last two elections, but I have a feeling that was due to the President being a Midwesterner.