[OldBankhead]

"We?"

The consensus here is that GDP isn't calculated the way you are presenting it. Never has been and has never been reported that way by any reputable source no matter how many times you stubbornly keep insisting that it is. "We" go by the Federal Reserve.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by OldBankhead

"We?"

The consensus here is that GDP isn't calculated the way you are presenting it. Never has been and has never been reported that way by any reputable source no matter how many times you stubbornly keep insisting that it is. "We" go by the Federal Reserve.

Same way that the “consensus” that Birmingham has a higher GDP than all the rest of Alabama combined, yet the no reputable source says so?

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

Same way that the “consensus” that Birmingham has a higher GDP than all the rest of Alabama combined, yet the no reputable source says so?

Yeah, but I had the fundamental honesty to backtrack on that. Early in last decade it was indeed the case.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

Yeah, but I had the fundamental honesty to backtrack on that. Early in last decade it was indeed the case.

I did backtrack, but it’s still being pushed

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

I did backtrack, but it’s still being pushed

No you didn't. You still are making that contention.

[Surge0001]

No I clearly backed tracked and said that without the port the GDP of Mobile and Huntsville is the same as Birmingham

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

No I clearly backed tracked and said that without the port the GDP of Mobile and Huntsville is the same as Birmingham

No you didn't. It was kind of a "Even if...." statement. Even then, it wasn't correct.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

No you didn't. It was kind of a "Even if...." statement.

Ehh, I wouldn’t call it “Even if” but it was a backtrack. Yes it is correct, the GDP of a Mobile and Huntsville combine is 51 billion to 55 billion and given Huntsville increase GDP of 1 billion every year it won’t be long til it actually overtake Birmingham

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by Surge0001

Ehh, I wouldn’t call it “Even if” but it was a backtrack. Yes it is correct, the GDP of a Mobile and Huntsville combine is 51 billion to 55 billion and given Huntsville increase GDP of 1 billion every year it won’t be long til it actually overtake Birmingham

Huntsville, Mobile, and Montgomery: $69.9 billion

Birmingham: $63.5 billion.

So, combined, the three MSAs beat Birmingham by 10% while having 16% more population in 2019 numbers. Congrats.

But your notion that Huntsville is about to overtake Birmingham is outright fantasy. Hey, I'm a big fan of Huntsville and its contributions to the state. No doubt about it. But I'm not sure how lasting Huntsville's growth will be, given its overwhelming dependence on defense and NASA. The War On Terror did wonders for Huntsville's growth, as well as the shuffling of the deck on base realignment. But BRAC was a one-off and our military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down. Unless we get into a major shooting war sometime soon--always a possibility--I don't think defense will be a growth industry in 2030.

More ominous, Richard Shelby's strong-arming government agencies (As well as his predecessors, John Sparkman and Howell Heflin) had a lot to do with Huntsville's growth. And Shelby is about to hang it up, ending the reign of three successive senators with enormous influence over defense appropriations. I don't think Tommy Tuberville and whatever new box of rocks we send to DC in 2022 will have nearly that kind of pull. Especially if the Democrats hold serve in the mid-terms which, at this point, is a distinct possibility. Anything could change in the next 15 months, of course, but the national GOP is doing itself no favors at the moment.

But if our defense commitments wane, if SpaceX et al make serious inroads into the launch industry, I worry Huntsville might face the same kind of woes Birmingham faced when deindustrialization hit in the 1970s. Or the banking meltdown of 2008. Those were shining examples of what happens if you become too dependent on a single industry.

Hope not. I want the very best for Huntsville. I hope it continues to grow and thrive, cementing I-65 between the two cities as the economic axis of the state. 1 + 1 = 3 and all that. But it's important to realize that a past trend line is not an indicator of future results. After all, Birmingham came within a whisker of overtaking Atlanta in terms of size due to its explosive growth. Then the Great Depression hit.

Birmingham's MSA GDP is $34 billion higher and is only growing at a slightly slower rate than Huntsville. And those are 2010-2019 numbers, which don't take into account the surge in economic development that's hit the Birmingham metro in 2020-2021.

Here's the thing. None of this is to diminish the other cities in Alabama. But it does absolutely no good to indulge in sketchy math in order to create a false narrative and indulge in pointless boosterism.

If you really want to speak to the economic destiny of this state, the more constructive route is to use that narrative energy to flog our state government relentlessly forward to streamline our laws and regulations to promote economic growth and make our state a desirable place to live and work. Stand on your chair and scream for an effective education system and support it with tax dollars. Scrap the laws that are holding us back, ways that we don't even realize.

Want a small example? If you want to buy a Tesla, you have to drive to Atlanta to do so. Not because Tesla doesn't want to be in Alabama. But our antiquated franchising laws keep Tesla from putting a dealership here. And the rent-seeking mentality that predominates with lobbyists crawling all over Goat Hill will keep it, and many other reforms, from happening anytime in the near future.

[Surge0001]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

I don't know what alternate reality you call home, but here are the numbers from 2019, the latest the Fed has.

Huntsville, Mobile, and Montgomery: $69.9 billion

Birmingham: $63.5 billion.

So, combined, the three MSAs beat Birmingham by 10% while having 16% more population in 2019 numbers. Congrats.

But your notion that Huntsville is about to overtake Birmingham is outright fantasy. Hey, I'm a big fan of Huntsville and its contributions to the state. No doubt about it. But I'm not sure how lasting Huntsville's growth will be, given its overwhelming dependence on defense and NASA. The War On Terror did wonders for Huntsville's growth, as well as the shuffling of the deck on base realignment. But BRAC was a one-off and our military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down. Unless we get into a major shooting war sometime soon--always a possibility--I don't think defense will be a growth industry in 2030.

More ominous, Richard Shelby's strong-arming government agencies (As well as his predecessors, John Sparkman and Howell Heflin) had a lot to do with Huntsville's growth. And Shelby is about to hang it up, ending the reign of three successive senators with enormous influence over defense appropriations. I don't think Tommy Tuberville and whatever new box of rocks we send to DC in 2022 will have nearly that kind of pull.

But if our defense commitments wane, if SpaceX et al make serious inroads into the launch industry, I worry Huntsville might face the same kind of woes Birmingham faced when deindustrialization hit in the 1970s. Or the banking meltdown of 2008.

Hope not. I want the very best for Huntsville. I hope it continues to grow and thrive, cementing I-65 between the two cities as the economic axis of the state. 1 + 1 = 3 and all that. But it's important to realize that a past trend line is not an indicator of future results. After all, Birmingham came within a whisker of overtaking Atlanta in terms of size due to its explosive growth. Then the Great Depression hit.

Birmingham's MSA GDP is $34 billion higher and is only growing at a slightly slower rate than Huntsville. And those are 2010-2019 numbers, which don't take into account the surge in economic development that's hit the Birmingham metro in 2020-2021.

Here's the thing. None of this is to diminish the other cities in Alabama. But it does absolutely no good to indulge in sketchy math in order to create a false narrative and indulge in pointless boosterism.

If you really want to speak to the economic destiny of this state, the more constructive route is to use that narrative energy to flog our state government relentlessly forward to streamline our laws and regulations to promote economic growth and make our state a desirable place to live and work. Stand on your chair and scream for an effective education system and support it with tax dollars. Scrap the laws that are holding us back, ways that we don't even realize.

Want a small example? If you want to buy a Tesla, you have to drive to Atlanta to do so. Not because Tesla doesn't want to be in Alabama. But our antiquated franchising laws keep Tesla from putting a dealership here. And the rent-seeking mentality that predominates with lobbyists crawling all over Goat Hill will keep it from happening anytime in the near future.

I have no idea what your source is, but it's definitely not the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is where my data is coming from and I sited earlier.


https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/fi...agdp1220_2.pdf


The six counties of Birmingham metro has a GDP of 55.4 billion. The 3 counties of Mobile has a GDP of 25.4 billion and Huntsville's 2 counties are 26.2 billion making a total of 51.6 billion. Which is NOT what you are getting