Alaska is a chang'in and when? (Fairbanks, Eielson AFB: sale, how much, house prices)

[Metlakatla]

This is probably an unpopular view, but it's my opinion that the population growth that occurred during the pipeline and oil boom is going to have to decrease proportionately if the state's going to survive. As far as diversification...well, tourism is big in Alaska, but the majority of people who benefit are from the -48 or from entirely different countries. Seafood isn't and never was Alaska-specific no matter what the hype tells you, and most of the mineral rights in Alaska are owned by Canadian or English companies.

Unless climate change creates opportunities for the place to become the next big thing in wine regions, the only real hope is tourism, but Alaska sold that out decades ago. Maybe there are ways to take it back, idk.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by GnomadAK

Tourism? Great, low paying jobs for out of state college students. Fisheries? You can't expand fisheries without fish farming and that's another third rail of AK politics

Tourism doesn't only mean low-paying jobs for out-of-state college students. It can also mean fairly lucrative incomes for those who own stores, lodges, guide services, and related businesses. If you took just one Princess Lodge and broke it up into small, locally owned inns, for instance, the income would more than support everyone from Sunshine to Fairbanks.

I can tell you one thing....when they great southern migration begins, POW residents won't be significantly represented. That's because tourism isn't going anywhere as long as the wild fish are running, and instead of one giant Princess Lodge or Talkeetna Lodge, we have twenty small-but-upscale establishments that provide pretty good livings for the families that own and operate them.

As far as fish farming, Alaska's wild runs are pretty healthy, unlike those of BC. I'm not sure there's room on the market for more farmed junk, though. It seems fairly saturated, and with more and more consumers wising up to the fact that farmed fish is harmful to the human body as well as to the environment, fish farming has a pretty bleak future. The state did the right thing in 1990 when they banned it.

The PDF will go kicking and screaming into the night.

[GnomadAK]

Met, we don't agree on everything but you are dead on about SE needing to split off of the rest of AK. It might be the best place to be when things, and folks, go south.

One thing I would like to hear your opinion on-the value of an individual salmon to a commercial operator VS. the value of that fish to a guided sport fishery. You can't really expand the size of the fishery but how about the focus?

AK is full of third rails and when I dared suggest that a fish brings more money into the economy as a sport caught vs commercial I caught flack from SE to the slope (I was on one of the AK ham radio nets when I said that, pre internet).

[pittsflyer]

We did not spend the oil boom days building infrastructure. We should have a road to Nome by now and be in negotiations with Russia to put in a bridge and start trade. Russia actually agreed to front a large amount of money to develop their roads to the proposed bridge which was like well over 1000 miles. But that ship has sailed, politicians want to trade dollars for votes.


The real money is made on finished products not selling raw minerals, even just finishing refining the metals and oil brings a hefty premium but the permits and red tape prevent it from happening. This state has tons of energy to run energy intensive processes.


But now the state is too broke to do any such thing. The money needed to be spent on infrastructure when we were in the prime gravy train days but it wasn't.

Originally Posted by riceme

Amen to this! I think about this much more than I should, and I don't see how we go from 90% of our budget coming from oil & gas to, for example, mining. To begin with, the price of gold is abysmal, as are coal exports. Plus,... ehhh, there is only so much you can extract in a given time period. And I really think the whole point should be to get away from our dependency on boom & bust industries.

Which leaves the question, how do we diversify? Our supply chain limitations make that a serious challenge, and at the very minimum cost prohibitive for pretty much anything I could dream up.

[pittsflyer]

The only real way to make money off tourism is to own key pieces of real estate free and clear and typically those people have to derive that money from some other venture else where. Certain oil jobs are the only jobs here that might pay enough to actually buy a lodge or some other asset like that. Besides that's not really "jobs" that's just the ownership class getting richer.

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

Tourism doesn't only mean low-paying jobs for out-of-state college students. It can also mean fairly lucrative incomes for those who own stores, lodges, guide services, and related businesses. If you took just one Princess Lodge and broke it up into small, locally owned inns, for instance, the income would more than support everyone from Sunshine to Fairbanks.

I can tell you one thing....when they great southern migration begins, POW residents won't be significantly represented. That's because tourism isn't going anywhere as long as the wild fish are running, and instead of one giant Princess Lodge or Talkeetna Lodge, we have twenty small-but-upscale establishments that provide pretty good livings for the families that own and operate them.

As far as fish farming, Alaska's wild runs are pretty healthy, unlike those of BC. I'm not sure there's room on the market for more farmed junk, though. It seems fairly saturated, and with more and more consumers wising up to the fact that farmed fish is harmful to the human body as well as to the environment, fish farming has a pretty bleak future. The state did the right thing in 1990 when they banned it.

The PDF will go kicking and screaming into the night.

[pittsflyer]

Yep I agree, unless you are part of the ownership class that benefits from your key real estate your screwed. The only well paying jobs outside of being a real estate holder is oil and gas and some state jobs.

Originally Posted by GnomadAK

So, let's see what the choices are.

Taxes? There isn't enough income or sales or economic activity besides oil to support the state budget.

Cut the budget? Just go and try to do that. Everybody is somebody's special interest group and no matter where you try to cut the screaming starts. And it's special interest groups that supply the money for the campaigns, not you silly voters. If the legislature tried even not raise the budget the shouting starts.

Cut or stop the PFD and use that money for state government? This is the best and most painless start and if you think taxes and cuts would stir the people up, go after that holy PFD. A decade ago I had a conversation with a coworker and I mentioned this as a possibility. First he said it wasn't "fair" as it was like a tax on everybody (yes, not getting money is a tax according to some) and then it was "why should my kids have to pay as much as millionaires" when it was just not getting a check and then he got nasty about it and I wondered if he was going to smack me one. So yes, good luck with that.

Any attempt at diversifying is either blocked in the courts or talked to death. AK politicans can talk everything to death. Tourism? Great, low paying jobs for out of state college students. Fisheries? You can't expand fisheries without fish farming and that's another third rail of AK politics (perhaps they should have asked Bristish Columbia not to do fish farming). Mining? Pebble? Reality shows? the 15 minutes are at about 12 1/2 minutes by now.

In reality it will take everything and in the end I can't see any of it happening.

[Metlakatla]

I'm not sure I understand your question. If you're asking for a direct comparison, there are too many variables...commercial fish prices go up and down all the time, and prices are also dependent on the grade of fish.

Sport and commercial fishermen aren't really in competition for the same fish in SE, either, so it's not really a matter of which industry is more valuable to the local economy. Most of the commercial guys make their money from pinks that get sold to Asia, and sports guys are after big kings, silvers, and then steelhead in the fall.

We could take away one industry completely and it wouldn't have a significant effect on the other. Our sports guys aren't interesting in catching humpies.

The North Pacific fishing industry is a healthy one that provides substantial loot to those who aren't afraid of work, but it's not going to save Alaska. It's a pretty good example of what they mean by the old saying, "If it's not broken, don't fix it."

I'm old enough to remember when business leaders in parts of SE were actively resisting Outside interests from investing...we're seeing that pay off now. Meanwhile, you've got Princess in Denali National Park.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by pittsflyer

Yep I agree, unless you are part of the ownership class that benefits from your key real estate your screwed. The only well paying jobs outside of being a real estate holder is oil and gas and some state jobs.

You get to be part of the "ownership class" by working hard and smart. No one I know who has a little lodge or other tourism related business spends their time laying up in the bubble bath banging on the bon bons while the minions work themselves to the bone.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by pittsflyer

The only real way to make money off tourism is to own key pieces of real estate free and clear and typically those people have to derive that money from some other venture else where. Certain oil jobs are the only jobs here that might pay enough to actually buy a lodge or some other asset like that. Besides that's not really "jobs" that's just the ownership class getting richer.

Yep, this is how it's done, rrpearso. You work, you invest, and you thrive unless you're an idiot. Many of the people I know who own tourism related businesses were teachers at one point. They bought their land and built their lodges and other businesses as they could. They may have started out with one small rental cabin and built their business up from scratch.

Plenty of our charter guys started out as hired hands and eventually went into business for themselves, but you have to have some sort of personality to be able to work with the public, which I suspect would be your downfall.

[GnomadAK]

In southcentral there was competetion between the sport fisheries and commercial users, the setnetters vs the Kenai sport fisheries. Some years the mat/su rivers never got enough reds to sustain a sport fishery, some years the Kenai even came up short.Up in the Yukon the conflict is between the commercial users and the subsistance users.

It occurs to me that really there isn't one Alaska, there are at least 3. One of the Alaskas did well before the oil and one will not be so harmed by it's passing. The other 2 Alaskas will go down fighting over the bones.