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Haiti is probably the most dangerous. It's been the poorest country for decades. The earthquake really wrecked anything positive going on there as well. On top of the crime it is probably far and away the country most likely to have an epidemic due to the living conditions in the refugee camps. When groups of your people are going up to random foreign soldiers and demanding they make your country a colony you know things are going rather poorly.
Although I suppose there's always the chance Montserrat could blow with short notice and kill everything on the island.
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