Will the US ever "fill up" to old-world population densities? (areas, standard)
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Unfortunately yes, if we continue the same policies the Federal government has been pushing. It is just a matter of time. Take a look at the population of China and India in 1900 and then compare them to just a hundred years later in 2000. Then look at how the India population in 1900 is similar to the USA population of 2000. This does not mean that the USA population growth will match India, but the USA will see a HUGE population growth if we continue our current growth policies.
1900
China 415 million India 280 million
USA 76 million
2000
China 1,242 million
India 1,040 million
USA 281 million
It's also interesting to note that all 3 countries increased in population at approximately the same rate from 1900 to 2000, although China's growth was a little slower due to a change in birth policy in the last quarter of the 20th century.
No as the birth rate slows and drops below 2.1 the U.S will only be able to grow population through immigration but then Mexico our biggest immigrant country is about to drop or already has below 2.1 and will be modernizing more besides central Mexico. This will mean in 50 years unless some crazy demographic change happens the U.S will decrease in population or will grow at a slow pace to the point were the growth is negligent.
Between 2014 and 2060 census department predicts (Current Population Report Issued March 2015)
+ 196.6 million births (156.8 native-born mothers+ 39.8 foreign-born mothers )
- 162.6 million deaths,
+ 64.1 million migrants,
= 98.1 million increase in population
Looking back 14 years for the same report, to see how accurate they were in the past
the census department issued three projections (low|middle|high) CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS Issued February 1996
Year | Lowest series | Middle series | Highest series
2010 .. 281,468 | 297,716 | 314,571
2020 .. 288,807 | 322,742 | 357,702
The actual census count was fairly close to the high projection: 308,745,538.
The current population is 322.17 which is almost equal to the middle series projection for the year 2020.
So I think that in 50 years the US growth rate will probably still be about the same as the world's growth rate. Mexico's growth rate will probably be negligible, or at least considerably smaller than that of the USA.
If you don't believe me, then the official projections are: US Census Department's International Data Base (IDB) Annual Growth Rate 2049-2050
Mexico 0.06% (that is negligible)
Canada 0.24%
United States 0.45%
The IDB does not go beyond the year 2050.
In comparison the US grew 9.7% over the ten years from 2000 to 2010, or close to 1% per year.
No. Much of the U.S. to be frank is not that attractive. The populations will always be concentratrated in certain areas while others remain more "open". Barring major catastrophe there is no big motivator for people to move to the less attractive areas.
North and South America are the only places on the planet with vast green areas that are largely empty. South America especially is very underpopulated.
Be careful with the Chinese.... They have their eyes on the resources of that vast hemisphere and they are already the biggest source of immigrants to the US!
North and South America are the only places on the planet with vast green areas that are largely empty. South America especially is very underpopulated.
Be careful with the Chinese.... They have their eyes on the resources of that vast hemisphere and they are already the biggest source of immigrants to the US!
It makes sense when you think about it. The original settlers of the Americas were displaced, and the new settlers mostly settled around coastal areas and then there was a gradual shift inward.
It makes sense when you think about it. The original settlers of the Americas were displaced, and the new settlers mostly settled around coastal areas and then there was a gradual shift inward.
Yes
South America is even a more special case, as it is a continent of vast natural resources, almost empty in the middle, with enormous areas bigger than Texas completely suitable for agriculture and production but absolutely empty!
It sort of depends on the time scale we are talking about. From the year 0 to 1000 estimates are that Western Europe increased population by an average of 0.00285% per year. The older centers of civilization like Spain, Italy and Greece lost significant population (perhaps 50% in the case of Greece.
Over the next 700 years population increased by 0.167% per year, and for the next 100 years by 0.49% per year. Then the population of France crashed and Germany became the dominant country.
When the USA is 400 years old, all indications are that it will be more populous than China, as China is expected to grow by single digit percentage points, and then begin to shrink.
Perhaps in 2000 years, Western Europeans will be almost gone, with just a few crowded around ancient centers of civilization, like the Mayas of today.
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qualification of word "negligible"
