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The leftist Gustavo Petro won the presidential election in Colombia. One more Latin American country turning left.
There are two very important news (whether they are good or not depends on your preference, though the second one should be seen with good eyes by everyone).
One, the victory of Petro means they break the tradition of Colombia being ruled by right wing wealthy families.
Two, Colombia's vice presidency will have its first black woman.
It remains to be seen if in practice they are moderates or extreme like the Venezuelans. I'm sure most of the elite have a place abroad in case they have to leave in a hurry if the you know what hits the fan.
Also don't forget the expats in places like MedellÃn. If things go sour, expect an exodus of expats to their country of origin or some other country. Some expats most likely are already scared, which could mean an increase of homes put on sale in the short term.
I'm not well versed in Colombian politics or innerworkings, so I will not speculate on changes. I imagine right wing people are upset, but if you are left wing your pleased. Centrist probably could care less. Nothing new, politics as usual. I will say it is cool to see a black person in such a high political office in a Latin American country. I also find it interesting that far left candidates are becoming popular again in Latin America. Hopefully the U.S. doesn't go the route of country destabilization like in the cold war all over again.
I'm not well versed in Colombian politics or innerworkings, so I will not speculate on changes. I imagine right wing people are upset, but if you are left wing your pleased. Centrist probably could care less. Nothing new, politics as usual. I will say it is cool to see a black person in such a high political office in a Latin American country. I also find it interesting that far left candidates are becoming popular again in Latin America. Hopefully the U.S. doesn't go the route of country destabilization like in the cold war all over again.
The current Vice President of Costa Rica is also a black woman. In fact, she is the first black woman in that position in all of Latin America. Unlike the Colombian one who's ancestors were in Colombia and before that in Africa, the Costa Rican one I think is of Caribbean origin, possibly Jamaica.
Another thing that probably some notice is that these blacks rising to powerful positions appear to be fully or very near fully blacks (aka, little admixture with other folks). While the USA had its first "black" president with Barack Obama, reality is that he is half black and I think being half white is a major reason why he won the presidency, which is fine and history making in the USA. But in much of Latin America he would be a mixed race president. These people rising to vice president position are women, are of near or full black ancestry and are direct descendants of black slaves in the Americas.
I'm not well versed in Colombian politics or innerworkings, so I will not speculate on changes. I imagine right wing people are upset, but if you are left wing your pleased. Centrist probably could care less. Nothing new, politics as usual. I will say it is cool to see a black person in such a high political office in a Latin American country. I also find it interesting that far left candidates are becoming popular again in Latin America. Hopefully the U.S. doesn't go the route of country destabilization like in the cold war all over again.
Destabilization of left leaning countries by the US has never stopped, cold war or not. If the new leaders of Colombia try to push too hard, Colombia will be destabilized as well.
I wasn't in Colombia on the day of the vote, but visited with my family to catch up with in-laws, former co-workers, friends, etc for the first two weeks of June. You could see that people were on edge, as the average person in the Center did not feel comfortable with an ex-guerrilla fighter on the Left, or a Populist, self-proclaimed Independent gaffe machine who had cozied up to the right-wing establishment after squeaking through to the runoff. Just like 4 years ago, it seems that the best candidate narrowly missed the runoff and placed in 3rd; this is of course the risk a society runs by dividing the vote between so many different candidates.
I was also surprised to see so much mainstream support for Petro, who has worked hard to overcome his past affiliation with M-19 and the painfully simplistic line of "...we'll end up just like Venezuela and Cuba..." as a response to anyone left of center trying to run for office. Keep in mind though how much outgoing president Duque screwed up during his last couple of years in office; the lowest point was during the 2021 protests. People don't forget when your police and military use live ammunition on their sons and daughters. We all knew that his Democratic Center (which ironically is neither Centrist nor democratic) Party would be virtually sidelined in 2022.
How far left will Petro go? If he plans on getting anything done, he'll be cruising straight up the center of the aisle for the most part. If you look at the makeup of Congress right now, you'll see that the lion's share of votes he'll need to even command a razor-thin majority come from centrist and moderate conservative parties such as the Liberals and the Cambio Radical. The parties which would support more radical and ambitious moves make up a pathetically low number of votes, even if they banded together to make an iron-clad coalition.
The fear around Colombia becoming a second Venezuela will probably cause him to keep countries like Cuba, Nicaragua and our eastern neighbor at arms length, though relations will be more cordial than under Uribe and Duque. You'll probably see more outreach to Mexico, Peru, Chile, Argentina and other social democracies. It remains to be seen how relations will evolve with the United States.
If the elites want to all jump ship and take their businesses with them, well they are pretty much acting out their own self-fulfilling prophecy of how and why the country will collapse under Petro. I think people will calm down once they accept the reality of the situation.
My greatest concern is that strong, capable and professional officers from the military and police will refuse to serve a president who once belonged to a group which took up arms against the government. With today's current security situation in Colombia, the country can ill-afford to lose professional officers who respect human rights and are not on the take. Additionally, he seems to think that he can simply stop exporting petroleum at a time when it simply cannot be replaced as a vital source of income for the country. I am waiting to see how this could even happen.
You could see that people were on edge, as the average person in the Center did not feel comfortable with an ex-guerrilla fighter on the Left, or a Populist, self-proclaimed Independent gaffe machine who had cozied up to the right-wing establishment after squeaking through to the runoff.
Cacreco Hernández? when he did cozy up to the right wing establishment? He never did. And that's one of the reasons he lost. He didn't spend pretty much anything after first round, you could say he didn't even run a proper campaign, he left the country and dedicated himself to make tiktok videos. He didn't sell to any right wing party, he was just alone in his madness.
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I was also surprised to see so much mainstream support for Petro, who has worked hard to overcome his past affiliation with M-19 and the painfully simplistic line of "...we'll end up just like Venezuela and Cuba..." as a response to anyone left of center trying to run for office.
but in the end, he actually had a fairly poor support. 11 million votes out of 39 million potential voters... fairly low for someone so recognizable who sold himself as "el gran cambio", a new start, etc. And, as you said, his competitor was extremely weak, a populist, crazy old man who didn't even hide his ignorance on many subjects. And even so Petro was very close to losing.
I never heard of anyone saying about Fajardo or any other person running for office, other than Petro, that "he will make us end up like Venezuela". That was only aimed at Petro, and, albeit is a very bold statement, it hides some truth if you look at many of Petro's proposals (public jobs for anyone, tariffs for imported food, changing the guidelines of the Central Bank, his statements on inflation vs interest rates, etc etc). I voted Fajardo twice, in 2018 and this year, because he was much more moderate and pragmatic than Petro.
Centro Democrático got 13 seats at Senate, 16 at the Seat of Representatives, that's not negligible. It is a centrist party for the most part, Duque's economic, fiscal and social policies show it clearly. You could just take a look at Duque's policies towards Venezuelan immigrants, he did nothing but to create tools to integrate them to Colombian society and regularize their situation here in terms of jobs, healthcare, citizenship status for babies from Venezuelan migrants born in Colombia, etc etc. He raised corporate tax from 30 to 33%. He created or strenghtened a lot of public programs. Not sure why you say it's not a centrist party (even though some of its members lean more right), or how it is not a democratic party. It clearly is not some kind of fascist party, and Duque respected court rulings. A lot of petristas claimed the country was a dictatorship and Duque would rig elections in favor of Fico or Hernández, they were proved completely wrong.
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Additionally, he seems to think that he can simply stop exporting petroleum at a time when it simply cannot be replaced as a vital source of income for the country. I am waiting to see how this could even happen.
Indeed. For someone who takes pride on being an economist, he seems to be not a very bright one. But you don't even need to have an Economics degree to understand that you can't develop agriculture and agroindustries without hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products.
Last edited by joacocanal; 06-22-2022 at 06:52 PM..
either way, the vicepresident would be a black woman. The vice of Rodolfo Hernández was also an Afro Colombian woman, Marelen Castillo.
A few months ago she was a completely unknown person for the public. Hernández selected her CV from several possible candidates. She has a lower-middle class background.
Cacreco Hernández? when he did cozy up to the right wing establishment? He never did. And that's one of the reasons he lost. He didn't spend pretty much anything after first round, you could say he didn't even run a proper campaign, he left the country and dedicated himself to make tiktok videos. He didn't sell to any right wing party, he was just alone in his madness.
That's only somewhat true. Behind the scenes, plenty of the conservative establishment quietly endorsed him in the second round. For example, Paloma Valencia and Maria Fernanda Cabal were quite vocal in their support. At that point, it was a "anyone but Petro" mentality for them. And this may have cost him some votes compared to the first round, when as you said being alone in his madness lured in some people fed up enough to vote for someone who claimed to transcend the political spectrum. Some of those folks changed their mind when people from CD voiced their support for him. Below is the list of just a few who came out for him...in all fairness, he got some support from the center as well:
but in the end, he actually had a fairly poor support. 11 million votes out of 39 million potential voters... fairly low for someone so recognizable who sold himself as "el gran cambio", a new start, etc. And, as you said, his competitor was extremely weak, a populist, crazy old man who didn't even hide his ignorance on many subjects. And even so Petro was very close to losing.
One takeaway I had from the original electoral map (in the first round) is how Hernandez overwhelmingly won the backwaters of the country, places like the Llanos Orientales. Those types of voters have little in common with the urban masses. Fico did quite well in most urban centers of the interior, and I was concerned from the get-go that the educated yet undecided voters would stay home in the second round. I definitely picked up on the vibe that people were nervous about what was going to happen with the second round, but when I saw tons of rallies and posters promoting Petro in the windows of houses in towns as conservative as Santa Rosa de Cabal, I knew that at least some of the population wasn't buying the "nOz baMoz a boLBer como veNeZuela" line.
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Originally Posted by joacocanal
I never heard of anyone saying about Fajardo or any other person running for office, other than Petro, that "he will make us end up like Venezuela". That was only aimed at Petro, and, albeit is a very bold statement, it hides some truth if you look at many of Petro's proposals (public jobs for anyone, tariffs for imported food, changing the guidelines of the Central Bank, his statements on inflation vs interest rates, etc etc). I voted Fajardo twice, in 2018 and this year, because he was much more moderate and pragmatic than Petro.
I too am a huge supporter of Fajardo. You're obviously a very educated fellow, and I'm sure your social and family circles are the same way. Unfortunately I have had to listen to the most ridiculous arguments from people in Pereira, Medellin and various pueblos over the last five years. Explain to me how the Uribistas allege that Fajardo was "el candidato secreto de las 'FAR' ", that Maduro was paying Venezuelans to come vote for him...explain to me why Petristas allege that Fajardo was "el candidato secreto de Uribe", that somehow just by knowing him and being from the same place as him that he was some sort of Trojan horse. It went on and on. I could usually shut them up with very simple facts and counter-arguments that I could make simplistic enough for them to hopefully understand, but you get the idea. Seriously this was all around me. How could Fajardo been both of these things when he truthfully was neither? I don't know what people were saying about Fico, but I felt that he and Fajardo were better candidates and it is beyond me how these guys could finish 3rd and 4th.
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Originally Posted by joacocanal
Centro Democrático got 13 seats at Senate, 16 at the Seat of Representatives, that's not negligible. It is a centrist party for the most part, Duque's economic, fiscal and social policies show it clearly. You could just take a look at Duque's policies towards Venezuelan immigrants, he did nothing but to create tools to integrate them to Colombian society and regularize their situation here in terms of jobs, healthcare, citizenship status for babies from Venezuelan migrants born in Colombia, etc etc. He raised corporate tax from 30 to 33%. He created or strenghtened a lot of public programs. Not sure why you say it's not a centrist party (even though some of its members lean more right), or how it is not a democratic party. It clearly is not some kind of fascist party, and Duque respected court rulings. A lot of petristas claimed the country was a dictatorship and Duque would rig elections in favor of Fico or Hernández, they were proved completely wrong.
They definitely have a viable presence in Congress. But they certainly lost support of many people due to the messes of 2021 (proposed tax reform, protests, brutal response to the protests, etc). In general, presidents aim to be pragmatic in order to get the job done. I have no doubt that many of Duque's initiatives were centrist in nature, but the fact remains-- Centro Democratico is a right-wing party for the most part. It was only created because Uribe became disillusioned with the direction Santos, a centrist, was going once he become president. Deny it if you want, but the links between Uribe and paramilitaries are undeniable in my eyes, and this goes back to the CONVIVIR days. Look at firebrand senators like Maria Fernanda Cabal and her open support of Trump, denial of the Banana Massacre and general propagation of fake news and disinformation. Look at the former Representative of Colombians Overseas Juan David Velez and his pathetic attempts to link Joe Biden with Fidel Castro and Nicolas Maduro via Whatsapp to voters in Florida. I've personally been threatened on social media by supporters of Duque. CD has an extreme wing of their party that is anything but moderate.
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Originally Posted by joacocanal
Indeed. For someone who takes pride on being an economist, he seems to be not a very bright one. But you don't even need to have an Economics degree to understand that you can't develop agriculture and agroindustries without hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products.
It's probably all talk.
Last edited by aab7855; 06-23-2022 at 10:03 AM..
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