Anchorage Home Values projected to sky rocket with AFB closure? (Fairbanks: low income, real estate)

[roadfamily6now]

Heard a rumor that the housing prices/value in Anchorage could increase by a lot if Eielson (Fairbanks) closes down. I guess 1500 homes wound need to be rented or purchased if the Air Force has to relocated most of their personnel to JBER?

Thoughts?

[Dakster]

Let me perface this with I don't live in AK and don't understand the economics of Fairbanks area.

If the base closes down, wouldn't there be LESS of a demand for housing? What am I missing here?

This is one of the things that concerns me as I search for places to move to. So I anxiously await the replies to this thread.

[roadfamily6now]

I'm going to edit my post, I should have mentioned that the increase in value would be in Anchorage!

[Dakster]

Now that makes some sense to me...

[AKStafford]

I think the report was that if the move was made from Eielson to Elemndorf then Anchorage would be 150 houses short, not 1,500.
I think Eagle River & the MatSu will absorb the overflow.

[highlife2]

My guess is those people would be moved state side or "laid off" from the military which probably involves not being able to re-inlist. You might see some pilots and other critical personal that are moved but I doubt it will be a mass influx as JBER only needs so many people to operate. I would like to see JBER cut way back anyways, the military personal don't help the male to female ratio in anchorage and a lot of low ranking military members (E-5 and below) are a nuisance in anchorage.

[AKStafford]

The plan is to transfer a lot of what is at Eielson to Elemendorf.
Dozens speak against moving jet squadron to Anchorage | Juneau Empire - Alaska's Capital City Online Newspaper

[highlife2]

Originally Posted by AKStafford

The plan is to transfer a lot of what is at Eielson to Elemendorf.
Dozens speak against moving jet squadron to Anchorage | Juneau Empire - Alaska's Capital City Online Newspaper

I guess we will see. I can see all the equipment and planes being moved but you dont need all the people otherwise there would be alot of redundancy that is not needed. You would need the mechanics and pilots from Eielson and thats about it.

[creativelytaylored]

You still need most of the personnel, not just mechanics etc. More ppl at the base means more support personnel as well. They move move some non-essential ppl stateside, but that certainly will not affect their re-enlistment.

There is actually some very good information about the housing market projection funded by the city http://www.muni.org/Departments/OCPD...y%20Report.pdf There are alot of factors to weigh when looking at our market up here.

Facts are there is a serious housing shortage, which is why rental rates are sky high. At any given time there is only about %1 of the housing market available to rent at any time. Im a landlord ... so I like all that But ... if you can BUY here in anchorage VS rent. Seriously. You will pay in rent twice what your landlord pays for his mortgage, and youll be paying HIS equity. The shortage in housing isnt going to get any better with the Feds owning most of the land. There just isnt anywhere here in the city to build. Commuting to the valley is very inconvenient, especially in the winter. The city is trying to help with building low income housing on less than 2k lots with 0 Lot line. I dunno if that will really help. But I do know the market here for housing just gets better the tighter the squeeze. Which is more equity for me

[highlife2]

Originally Posted by creativelytaylored

You still need most of the personnel, not just mechanics etc. More ppl at the base means more support personnel as well. They move move some non-essential ppl stateside, but that certainly will not affect their re-enlistment.

There is actually some very good information about the housing market projection funded by the city http://www.muni.org/Departments/OCPD...y%20Report.pdf There are alot of factors to weigh when looking at our market up here.

Facts are there is a serious housing shortage, which is why rental rates are sky high. At any given time there is only about %1 of the housing market available to rent at any time. Im a landlord ... so I like all that But ... if you can BUY here in anchorage VS rent. Seriously. You will pay in rent twice what your landlord pays for his mortgage, and youll be paying HIS equity. The shortage in housing isnt going to get any better with the Feds owning most of the land. There just isnt anywhere here in the city to build. Commuting to the valley is very inconvenient, especially in the winter. The city is trying to help with building low income housing on less than 2k lots with 0 Lot line. I dunno if that will really help. But I do know the market here for housing just gets better the tighter the squeeze. Which is more equity for me

That is only true with single family homes, condos and the like are still difficult to sell even in anchorage and it was tough to rent it for enough money to cover my expenses. So unless you bought a really long time ago then you got lucky. I have not seen single family home prices move too much in anchorage.

Rents are high but so are purchase prices of a home which is reflected in your mortgage, repair bills, utiliitys, taxes, etc, etc. Unless you bought the property a really long time ago when prices where a lot lower OR you had a huge down payment I don't see how you are getting more in rent than what you owe and if you had a huge down payment that's a huge sunk cost for an investment property which you will only recover from any rent rates that are above ALL your expenses. I will eventually buy a house to live in but it just takes way too long to get truly in the black on real estate UNLESS you get the property at a substantial discount.

Also seriously why would you need to keep anyone but the pilots and mechanics, so you add a cook and maybe build a little more base housing but security etc all stay the same. I think the govt, especially the military is slowly starting to learn that having a bunch of non essential personal running around is hurting their ability to buy fun new weapons.

Skimmed the article and did not see anything specific about base closures, also there is no way I would ever buy another condo or 0 lot line regardless of the market conditions as they are way too hard to get out from under if you need to sell, if your association flakes out and you loose FHA financing then your up the creek. I don't like albotroses I like things that are more liquid. Also that is a 20 year forcast, I will be an old man in 20 years and probably not even live in anchorage lol.

If housing gets that dire in anchorage then businesses are going to have to tolerate all the issues that come with their employees living in the valley with road closures and wrecks or just general poor road conditions that cause tardiness or they will start being more flexible with telecommuting. IF it gets really bad then businesses may have to build housing for lower income workers otherwise no one will work in anchorage as it will be cost prohibitive, that's what they have to do in places like aspen and veil Colorado.