Will Mesa surpass Tucson in population by 2020 Census? (Phoenix, Glendale: houses, neighborhoods)

[Pink Jazz]

Yes, I know that the 2020 Census is about 8 years from now, however, considering the growth in the East Valley, does anyone think that Mesa will surpass Tucson in population by the 2020 Census? East Mesa is growing quite quickly. Mesa is already larger than some more famous cities such as Atlanta or Miami.

[azriverfan.]

Not a chance

Tucson has 520,000 and Mesa has 439,000.

The rate of growth for both cities has been about roughly the same (Mesa grew from 396,375 to 439,041 and Tucson grew from 486,699 to 520,116.

Mesa outgrew Tucson by 4% and Tucson has 80,000 more people so it's not happening.

Furthermore, Mesa is losing a lot of people to Gilbert and Chandler. Mesa would have grown a lot bigger had many of their residents not moved to Gilbert and Chandler. Furthermore, Mesa has negative factors facing it most notably lack of jobs, poor schools, and crime. I just don't see Mesa improving in these areas and I foresee more of its residents and industry relocating to nearby Gilbert, and possibly Chandler and Tempe. There might be some nice communities in East Mesa but nice neighborhoods is not the same as jobs and a few nice areas can't compensate for the rest of Mesa.

I think it's conceivable that Gilbert could possibly outgrow Mesa in 30 years considering that Gilbert grew by 100% in the past decade compared to 10.9% for Mesa. Even Chandler grew by 33% in the past decade.

I think what is understated is Gilbert. It's a clean, safe community with great public schools and no bad areas. Yes, it might be conservative politically and religiously but a lot of people prefer that. I see Gilbert just exploding with regard to population and it could overtake Chandler in the next census as a lot of people disenchanted with Mesa will move next door and Gilbert seems to be attracting a lot more national attention than any other city in Arizona at the moment. If you read a lot of these magazine guides for places to move to and top communities, Gilbert is one of the ones mentioned.

[Pink Jazz]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

Not a chance

Tucson has 520,000 and Mesa has 439,000.

The rate of growth for both cities has been about roughly the same (Mesa grew from 396,375 to 439,041 and Tucson grew from 486,699 to 520,116.

Mesa outgrew Tucson by 4% and Tucson has 80,000 more people so it's not happening.

Furthermore, Mesa is losing a lot of people to Gilbert and Chandler. Mesa would have grown a lot bigger had many of their residents not moved to Gilbert and Chandler. Furthermore, Mesa has negative factors facing it most notably lack of jobs, poor schools, and crime. I just don't see Mesa improving in these areas and I foresee more of its residents and industry relocating to nearby Gilbert, and possibly Chandler and Tempe. There might be some nice communities in East Mesa but nice neighborhoods is not the same as jobs and a few nice areas can't compensate for the rest of Mesa.

I think it's conceivable that Gilbert could possibly outgrow Mesa in 30 years considering that Gilbert grew by 100% in the past decade compared to 10.9% for Mesa. Even Chandler grew by 33% in the past decade.

I think what is understated is Gilbert. It's a clean, safe community with great public schools and no bad areas. Yes, it might be conservative politically and religiously but a lot of people prefer that. I see Gilbert just exploding with regard to population and it could overtake Chandler in the next census as a lot of people disenchanted with Mesa will move next door and Gilbert seems to be attracting a lot more national attention than any other city in Arizona at the moment. If you read a lot of these magazine guides for places to move to and top communities, Gilbert is one of the ones mentioned.

Well, I am sure that Gilbert will surpass Scottsdale by 2020, as stated in a previous thread. Some are even saying that Queen Creek will be the next big growth area.

As for Tempe, I don't see it growing much due to it being landlocked. Gilbert surpassed Tempe in population around 2004.

[Ponderosa]

Here's valley population predictions for 2030 (sorry it did not line up too well, but you get the idea). Tucson will still be more populous. The real growth in the metro is going to be in the west valley. Look at Buckeye!

Community 2008 2030 % Change
Apache Junction 37917 41751 10%

Avondale 76648 123265 61%

Buckeye 50143 419146 737%

Chandler 244376 283792 16%

Fountain Hills 25995 33810 30%

Gilbert 214820 283792 40%

Glendale 248435 322062 30%

Goodyear 59436 299397 404%

Maricopa* 37252 363967 877%

Mesa 459682 584866 27%

Peoria 155560 306070 97%

Phoenix 1561485 2201843 10%

Queen Creek 23827 72947 206%

Scottsdale 242376 286020 18%

Surprise 108761 401458 269%

Tempe 172641 197970 15%

Tolleson 6883 10193 48%

Wickenburg 6442 17732 175%

* Calculated based on 2025 estimate from City of Maricopa
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Andros 1337

Well, I am sure that Gilbert will surpass Scottsdale by 2020, as stated in a previous thread. Some are even saying that Queen Creek will be the next big growth area.

As for Tempe, I don't see it growing much due to it being landlocked. Gilbert surpassed Tempe in population around 2004.

Gilbert will for sure surpass Scottsdale and possibly Chandler by 2020. I don't see Tempe growing much either for those reasons. Not sure about Queen Creek because it's still further removed and there isn't a great freeway system in and out of Queen Creek for the foreseeable future.

The other big growth area IMHO will be Goodyear. I see that area exploding too because it's relatively proximal to the central Valley from I-10 (sure it's far but not Queen Creek far) and Goodyear has been smart about attracting industry and not just using the same ole tired mantra of "build it(houses) and they will come" They are aggressive in trying to create industry and focusing on industry as opposed to growing for the sake of growth. Goodyear seems to be one of the communities that "gets it" And if you look at the stats 75K average income for 65,000 population is a lot in addition to having relatively good diversity for an Arizona city (4% Asian, 7% Black) without any strong religious or conservative leanings, it's going to attract a lot of people.

[azdr0710]

scary stuff there, Pondy.....jeez.....not only Buckeye, but Maricopa and Surprise.....wow....

[sh9730]

AZ,

Well I wouldnt get toooo worried about those figures yet....they were released in 2009, which means they were probably gathered during 07 and 08 or even earlier....it always takes them forever to release the reports.... so the projections were made before a lot of the collapse of the economy etc.

I remember when I bought my house down here in CG, they provided me with disclosure information that they expected 600K STUDENTS (that doesnt include their parents) in the CG school district by 2020.

Someday these numbers might be accurate, but I think even 2030 is a little optimistic...I ll be getting pretty old and gray by then so I might not ever see those numbers materialize! LOL

[Java Jolt]

Mesa could easily become Arizona's second largest city if the economy rebounds and growth increases as projected.

Mesa still has lots of room to grow as do many west valley cities. Tempe, Scottsdale, Glendale, and Chandler are almost at buildout and might have to go taller if they still want growth to continue.

[ReadyFreddy]

Originally Posted by azdr0710

scary stuff there, Pondy.....jeez.....not only Buckeye, but Maricopa and Surprise.....wow....

Obviously there are downsides, but overall isn't growth considered a positive? Bigger tax base, bigger labor pool, more attractive to employers, etc...

[CodyW]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

Mesa still has lots of room to grow as do many west valley cities..

Before the housing bust, Mesa was projected to hit build-out within the next 50 years. Not exactly 'lots' of room.

As for surpassing Tucson, I don't think that'll ever happen. It has a pretty solid spot as Arizona's second city.