Here's the 2019 Monsoon Thread (Sedona: real estate, mortgage, estate)

[KurtAZ]

It is all about ambient moisture, heat and barometric pressure. The old rule of 3x55° Dewpoint is the only one I trust. Random "Monsoon Season" dates are bunk and outside of an obvious system coming up from the south...they always get it wrong. That storm came in last night and my wife just looked at me and said "10% chance, huh?". That is what "they" said and as you know..."they" are frequently wrong.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by BBslider001

Wait....just got to Kingman yesterday for a 2 month stay, maybe longer. I have not yet seen one monsoon. Where are they??!! LOL

Kingman doesn't get monsoons...CA taxes all the moisture and then the rest gets lost in Las Vegas.



j/k...you all should get some this month....August is usually when Kingman gets some moisture.

[BBslider001]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Kingman doesn't get monsoons...CA taxes all the moisture and then the rest gets lost in Las Vegas.



j/k...you all should get some this month....August is usually when Kingman gets some moisture.

LOL....nice!!! Hopefully we will see something. Saw lightning waaayyyyyy in the distance last night. Was pretty cool.

[veritased]

I was watching radar and moisture satellite snapshots all day, and the moisture seemed to appear and intensify all of a sudden late in the afternoon. It's not like something one can track coming from point A to point B.

I took a college meteorology class, but frankly it was an intro class that left me with 100x more questions than when I came in.

[Jnvlv247]

Originally Posted by veritased

Yesterday, right up and even past the point where clouds appeared over McDowell range and lightning lit up the sky and hard driving rain came down, the NWS Phoenix office said no rain, and the news channels said 10% chance at best.
Let's face it, the AZ monsoon climate is far too complex to model, and these guys just don't have to the tools or know how.
This was the biggest storm I've seen this season yet, and it was the least anticipated by the pro's. So will pay much less attention to the nice weather lady, she/he has no clue, in fact.

Yes coming up to Pinetop/Lakeside today in fact for a quick visit. Leaving Scottsdale now!

BTW, the weather in SF Bay was infinitely easier for them to forecast, though, once the weather got more eastward, they really couldn't tell how much it would snow in the Sierra's, though they usually got it roughly right, and sometimes missed the amounts by a huge swath. Storms in Coastal california come from way out in the Pacific, move eastward and are super easy to track. Here the storms seem to pop up from nowhere!

NE Sdale and FH are indeed their own microclimate up there

[veritased]

Originally Posted by Jnvlv247

NE Sdale and FH are indeed their own microclimate up there

Interesting. How so? I'd like to get a headstart on understanding the valley regions, such as they in terms of microclimates. Where I am, I am about as much in the lee of the McDowell mountains as can be, for storms coming from E or SE.

[phetaroi]

Originally Posted by veritased

Yesterday, right up and even past the point where clouds appeared over McDowell range and lightning lit up the sky and hard driving rain came down, the NWS Phoenix office said no rain, and the news channels said 10% chance at best.
Let's face it, the AZ monsoon climate is far too complex to model, and these guys just don't have to the tools or know how.
This was the biggest storm I've seen this season yet, and it was the least anticipated by the pro's. So will pay much less attention to the nice weather lady, she/he has no clue, in fact.

Yes coming up to Pinetop/Lakeside today in fact for a quick visit. Leaving Scottsdale now!

BTW, the weather in SF Bay was infinitely easier for them to forecast, though, once the weather got more eastward, they really couldn't tell how much it would snow in the Sierra's, though they usually got it roughly right, and sometimes missed the amounts by a huge swath. Storms in Coastal california come from way out in the Pacific, move eastward and are super easy to track. Here the storms seem to pop up from nowhere!

In all fairness, it's much easier to predict frontal storms. Very difficult to predict convective storms because they are much more localized. I've literally seen it rain on one side of the street and not on the other during convective precipitation.

[veritased]

Originally Posted by phetaroi

In all fairness, it's much easier to predict frontal storms. Very difficult to predict convective storms because they are much more localized. I've literally seen it rain on one side of the street and not on the other during convective precipitation.

Right, exactly. I think that's the difference between the typical California coastal storm that is very trackable and better modeled.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by phetaroi

In all fairness, it's much easier to predict frontal storms. Very difficult to predict convective storms because they are much more localized. I've literally seen it rain on one side of the street and not on the other during convective precipitation.

Oh this happens all the time. We were coming home from the market one day last summer...it was pouring rain. Drove the 3/4 of a mile to our house and right as we crossed to the west side of our neighborhood...dry as a bone.

[veritased]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

Oh this happens all the time. We were coming home from the market one day last summer...it was pouring rain. Drove the 3/4 of a mile to our house and right as we crossed to the west side of our neighborhood...dry as a bone.

Yes, very different than both my Midwest and West Coast life, where it was all frontal and rain was guaranteed to be region wide, with more active cells randomly evolving. Here the storm can seem to appear just from thin, albeit hot and humid, air.